Edmund Schweppe

The latest public advisory from the National Weather Service regarding Tropical Storm Elsa:
( Read more... )
I'm on the rainy side. I'm also at the top of a hill, so flash flooding is not a personal risk.

Just in time for the current heat wave to break ... looks like we're getting Tropical Storm Elsa on Friday:
( Thus sayeth the National Hurricane Center )
The current local forecast has me getting lots of rain and possibly lots of wind on Friday, but not a catastrophic event by any means.

Seventeen inches of heavy wet snow on the hood of my car this morning; National Weather Service spotters in the immediate area were reporting as much as 21.8 inches.

The NWS tweeted out an observed snowfall map showing the high amounts around me - as well as the very sharp gradient running roughly along I-95 / MA-128, especially south of Boston. (No snow on Cape Cod, only a few inches in Boston proper.)

Said car is finally dug out. Me, I'm just tired out.

Just lost power here at Chez Me. In fact, it appears that the entire complex is out (although some places across the street are still lit).

Ah, well, at least it's not snowing.

Oh, joy. A pandemic isn't enough; now we get a tropical storm warning (courtesy of Isaias):
( snippage )
At least my neck of the woods is going to be on the less-rain-soaked side of the storm.

I have to confess that I wasn't dreaming of a white Thanksgiving. Nor one with record cold temperatures.

But that's what's currently in the cards. It's snowing as I type (for the second time this season!), and the forecast high temperature on Thursday is all of 19F.

The remnants of hurricane Florence are now passing overhead, and the National Weather Service used the cellphone emergency alert service as one of the ways to announce the official Flash Flood Warning.
Their website, of course, is somewhat more verbose: ( cut for soggy details )
I'm already on high ground, so it's not any sort of imminent threat. But there are a few poorly-drained roads nearby that I'll need to dodge if I go out.

NWS forecast is for 10-14 inches in my neck of the woods today, and maybe an inch or so more overnight.

Then we get the deep freeze. Tonight's low temperature is predicted to be 7F. Saturday's high is predicted to be 6F.

Temperatures are not predicted to get above the freezing point until Tuesday at the earliest.

The air conditioning on my car would crap out in the middle of the second heat wave of the year.

(Local weather folk are saying that this is the first time in history that Boston has had two heat waves before June 14. Yay.)

But not necessarily in a good way. Thus sayeth NOAA:

The December-February average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 36.8°F, 4.6°F above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record of 36.5°F set in 1999/2000. The exceptionally warm December boosted the contiguous U.S. winter temperature. The February temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 39.5°F, 5.7°F above the 20th century average, ranking as the seventh warmest on record and warmest since 2000.
Forty-six states across the contiguous U.S. had a winter temperature that was above average. Much-above average winter temperatures were observed across the West, Great Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast. Each of the six New England states had a winter temperature that was record warm.
Alaska had its second warmest December-February with a statewide temperature of 14.2°F, 10.6°F above average. Several locations across Alaska were record warm including Barrow and King Salmon, while Anchorage and Juneau had their second warmest December-February.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/national/201602

But, of course, certain political factions are convinced there's no such thing as climate change.

Well, shit! Lookit what the National Weather Service has posted for my neck of the woods!

TORNADO WARNING
MAC017-027-041830-
/O.NEW.KBOX.TO.W.0008.150804T1807Z-150804T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
207 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...
  NORTH CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 206 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
  OVER LEOMINSTER...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOWELL...LEOMINSTER...FITCHBURG...BILLERICA...CHELMSFORD...
  WESTFORD...ACTON...CONCORD...CLINTON...BEDFORD...TYNGSBOROUGH...
  GROTON...LUNENBURG...LITTLETON...LANCASTER...STERLING...AYER...
  SHIRLEY...STOW AND HARVARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! DO NOT WAIT TO SEE THE TORNADO. GO TO A BASEMENT OR
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE...A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...GET TO THE
CLOSEST SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4242 7177 4254 7183 4269 7140 4249 7127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 253DEG 42KT 4250 7173
$$

KJC

Hopefully this won't actually spawn any tornadoes. Because it would really suck to take the train home and not find a home there :-(.

Friday was the vernal equinox, and it snowed. Not much, but it snowed.

Yesterday was the first full day of spring, and it snowed some more. Again, not much - maybe a bit over an inch between the two snowfalls, and it melted almost immediately - but, still, it snowed.

Tomorrow morning's National Weather Service forecast is calling for early morning air temperatures around 14F and wind chills around 3F in my neck of the woods. Which really sucks for late March, waiting on the platform for the commuter rail.

And said commuter rail still hasn't recovered from the seven-plus feet of snow we got this winter. Keolis (the French outfit that took over the contract last summer) has put out a schedule that includes most of the pre-snowpocalypse trains, but that's a far cry from actually meeting said schedules. Over the last five weeks, I have only once had a commute where both my inbound and outbound trains were on time (Wednesday, March 11th). If I count the times when the train was less than five minutes late (which means Keolis doesn't face a fine for it), I can add four more round trips (2/27, 3/2 and 3/12) to the list. Overall, of my 42 total rides since President's Day [1], only 16 have qualified as "on-time" by the less-than-five-minutes rule, for an on-time percentage of 33%.

Which, to put it mildly, sucks, even worse than normal. Keolis is supposed to maintain a 95% on time percentage. The Boston Globe Magazine ran a story back on February 22, Will the MBTA commuter rail ever run on time?, which noted that the November 2014 OTP for the Fitchburg line was only 66%. Even a 95% OTP means that someone who rides five days a week can expect a late train about once every other week.

At least last week I didn't have any trips where the lights and heat died mid-trip; I'd had three of those in the three previous weeks.

And today's offertory in church was Sydney Carter's Julian of Norwich (aka Bells of Norwich), which is always good for lifting my spirits. "All shall be well again, I know."

[1] There were several days where I just plain didn't go into Boston for various reasons, and a couple where I had to drive in because the train wouldn't get me out in time for important appointments.

So tomorrow isn't the weekend, or a holiday, and nobody's predicting a Snowstorm of DOOOM. That means it's time to go back to work, right?

Well, that may depend on the MBTA. As-you-know-Bob, the T shut down completely on Sunday during the height of the blizzard; that was the second time in a week that they'd cancelled rail service. Today was President's Day, when the T normally runs commuter rail on a Saturday schedule, which for my line means eight round-trips instead of seventeen. Despite the reduced schedule, there were still an awful lot of cancellations and late trains showing up on the service updates pages and the @MBTA_CR Twitter feed.

They've now announced that Tuesday's commuter rail would be on a "modified weekday schedule". For the Fitchburg line, that's going to mean only eleven round trips (vice 17), only four of which (vice six) will be during rush hour. The odds of them actually meeting that schedule are ... miniscule at best. (Not that driving in would be an improvement, considering how many of the main roads into and around Boston still don't have all their travel lanes cleared.)

Oh, and we may be getting another inch or two of snow tomorrow. Because of course we need a fresh coat.

It's a bright, sunny, cold morning here at Boskone - but blizzard warnings are in effect from tonight at 7PM through Monday at 7AM. This is going to be the second blizzard of the year, and at least the fourth major snowstorm of the season!

Thus sayeth the National Weather Service:

( NWS blizzard warning )

The snow is expected to stop falling around 2PM tomorrow. However, the winds are going to remain absurdly high through Monday morning, which will cause all sorts of blowing and drifting problems - especially since this is going to be another fluffy, dry snow event on top of several feet of snow already on the ground. (I saw a graphic on the morning news that showed Boston and Worcester with more snow than Buffalo!)

The MBTA has already given up and cancelled all Sunday services. Considering how badly their equipment has fared so far this year, I'm not that surprised; OTOH, I have a bad feeling that the hotel staff will be shorthanded tomorrow. Despite that, I've extended my hotel reservations through Monday so I don't have to risk driving home under blizzard conditions; as long as there's power and Internet, I'll be okay.

Okay, this is really, seriously, fucking bad. Everything the MBTA runs on rails? Shut down tomorrow:

All #MBTA Subway, Trolley, & @MBTA_CR service will be suspended from start to end of srvc on Tuesday Feb 10 #MAsnow http://t.co/b64qZOblgI

— MBTA (@MBTA) February 9, 2015

Guess who's not going into work tomorrow, either?