Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today (Thursday, May 25, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 13 newly reported confirmed deaths (7 more than last week - up 116.7%) for a total of 22,636 confirmed deaths. There were 2 newly reported probable deaths (1 more than last week - up 100.0%) for a total of 2,030 probable deaths. In total, 15 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (8 more than last week - up 114.3%) for a total of 24,666 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 791 newly reported confirmed cases (17 more than last week - up 2.2%) for a total of 2,040,245 confirmed cases. There were 202 newly reported probable cases (12 more than last week - up 6.3%) for a total of 203,888 probable cases. In total, 993 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (29 more than last week - up 3.0%) for a total of 2,244,133 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 25,703 new molecular tests (3,240 less than last week - down 11.2%) for a total of 50,128,823. The seven-day average positivity rate is 3.46%, compared to 2.95% last week. There are currently 161 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (8 less than last week - down 4.7%), 15 COVID patients are in ICUs (5 less than last week - down 25.0%), and 6 COVID patients are intubated (same as last week).

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 93.1 (2.7 more than last week - up 3.0%), 45.2% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.6% below the highest observed value of 23,247.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.46% (0.52 more than last week - up 17.5%), 1,025.3% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 87.5% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 154.0 (11.9 less than last week - down 7.1%), 82.7% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 96.0% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 1.0 (0.4 more than last week - up 75.0%), 40.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.7 on 5/11/2023 and 99.4% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 3,073.1 (387.9 less than last week - down 11.2%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 3,073.1 on 5/23/2023 and 97.2% below the highest observed value of 110,432.3 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,701 non-ICU beds, of which 8,043 (92.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 146 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 512 (5.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,205 ICU beds, of which 969 (80.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 15 (1.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 221 (18.3%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,634 non-ICU beds, of which 7,829 (90.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 149 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 656 (7.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,189 ICU beds, of which 949 (79.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 20 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 220 (18.5%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (May 25), the 7 day molecular test average was 3,073.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 93.1, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 154.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.46%.
One week ago (May 18), the 7 day molecular test average was 3,461.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 90.4, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.6, the 7 day hospitalization average was 165.9, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.95%.
Two weeks ago (May 11), the 7 day molecular test average was 4,520.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 105.6, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 174.1, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.59%.
One year ago (May 25, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 30,612.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,304.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 10.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 824.7, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.33%.
Two years ago (May 25, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 33,900.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 257.9, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.1, the 7 day hospitalization average was 291.5, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.93%.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 9.96; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 927.8 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 11.03; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 1,027.5 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Saturday, May 20, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 143.7 copies per milliliter (21.7 less than one week prior - down 13.1%), 1,077.5% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 98.4% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 217.0 copies/mL two weeks ago, 1,124.7 copies/mL one year ago, and 51.1 copies/mL two years ago.
The seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 269.5 copies per milliliter (140.2 more than one week prior - up 108.4%), 2,550.3% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 97.7% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 191.6 copies/mL two weeks ago, 1,103.0 copies/mL one year ago, and 81.2 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.

Rather less than great news in today's Massachusetts numbers, as both confirmed and probable deaths more than doubled compared to last week. Confirmed and probable cases actually rose again even as tests continued to decay away; the seven-day percent-positive rate is up to 3.46%. The only good news is the (slight) decline in patients currently hospitalized for COVID. Reported wastewater levels at the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority are a mixed bag, with northside levels down thirteen percent from last week but southside levels jumping to over double last week's numbers. These numbers don't look too bad in absolute terms, but the trends aren't good.