Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today (Thursday, May 18, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 6 newly reported confirmed deaths (9 less than last week - down 60.0%) for a total of 22,623 confirmed deaths. There were 1 newly reported probable deaths (1 more than last week) for a total of 2,028 probable deaths. In total, 7 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (8 less than last week - down 53.3%) for a total of 24,651 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 774 newly reported confirmed cases (205 less than last week - down 20.9%) for a total of 2,039,454 confirmed cases. There were 190 newly reported probable cases (52 less than last week - down 21.5%) for a total of 203,686 probable cases. In total, 964 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (257 less than last week - down 21.0%) for a total of 2,243,140 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 28,943 new molecular tests (7,655 less than last week - down 20.9%) for a total of 50,103,120. The seven-day average positivity rate is 2.95%, compared to 2.59% last week. There are currently 169 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (5 less than last week - down 2.9%), 20 COVID patients are in ICUs (6 more than last week - up 42.9%), and 6 COVID patients are intubated (3 more than last week - up 100.0%).

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 90.4 (15.1 less than last week - down 14.3%), 41.0% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.6% below the highest observed value of 23,247.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.95% (0.36 more than last week - up 13.7%), 857.6% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 89.4% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 165.9 (8.3 less than last week - down 4.8%), 96.8% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 95.7% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 0.6 (1.3 less than last week - down 69.2%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.6 on 5/11/2023 and 99.7% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 3,461.0 (1,059.0 less than last week - down 23.4%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 3,461.0 on 5/16/2023 and 96.9% below the highest observed value of 110,432.3 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,634 non-ICU beds, of which 7,829 (90.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 149 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 656 (7.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,189 ICU beds, of which 949 (79.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 20 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 220 (18.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,696 non-ICU beds, of which 7,884 (90.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 160 (1.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 652 (7.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,203 ICU beds, of which 974 (81.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 14 (1.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 215 (17.9%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (May 18), the 7 day molecular test average was 3,461.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 90.4, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.6, the 7 day hospitalization average was 165.9, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.95%.
One week ago (May 11), the 7 day molecular test average was 4,520.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 105.6, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 174.1, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.59%.
Two weeks ago (May 4), the 7 day molecular test average was 4,746.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 100.1, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 169.6, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.46%.
One year ago (May 18, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 34,785.3, the 7 day confirmed case average was 0.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 759.9, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 9.13%.
Two years ago (May 18, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 42,232.7, the 7 day confirmed case average was 369.6, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 7.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 372.6, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.06%.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 10.05; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 908.9 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 12.20; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 1,103.5 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Saturday, May 13, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 165.4 copies per milliliter (51.6 less than one week prior - down 23.8%), 1,255.0% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 98.1% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 216.3 copies/mL two weeks ago, 1,067.7 copies/mL one year ago, and 67.8 copies/mL two years ago.
The seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 129.3 copies per milliliter (62.3 less than one week prior - down 32.5%), 1,171.8% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 98.9% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 199.0 copies/mL two weeks ago, 1,184.0 copies/mL one year ago, and 63.5 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.

Newly reported deaths are down compared to last week, which is certainly good news; in fact, we're now setting new lowest observed values for the seven-day average of confirmed deaths. Newly reported cases are down as well, but that can be easily explained by the fact that newly reported tests are also down; the reported percent-positive ratio is actually up, which isn't encouraging. The current hospitalization count is down, but the ICU and intubation counts are up a bunch; hopefully, that's more statistical noise than a bad trend. In further good news, the MWRA wastewater levels are dropping again. They're still well above their all-time lows, but downward trends are good to see here.

I haven't been able to find any available data sources for the CDC's new United States COVID-19 Hospitalizations, Deaths, and Emergency Visits by Geographic Area page, which I gather is what the CDC is now using as their main tool for deciding when (if ever) to recommend either individual or community-level prevention strategies. If I can find a data feed for that, I'll incorporate it.