Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today (Thursday, May 11, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 15 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 more than last week - up 7.1%) for a total of 22,617 confirmed deaths. There were 0 newly reported probable deaths (2 less than last week) for a total of 2,027 probable deaths. In total, 15 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (1 less than last week - down 6.2%) for a total of 24,644 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 979 newly reported confirmed cases (82 more than last week - up 9.1%) for a total of 2,038,680 confirmed cases. There were 242 newly reported probable cases (65 less than last week - down 21.2%) for a total of 203,496 probable cases. In total, 1,221 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (17 more than last week - up 1.4%) for a total of 2,242,176 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 36,598 new molecular tests (1,818 less than last week - down 4.7%) for a total of 50,074,177. The seven-day average positivity rate is 2.59%, compared to 2.46% last week. There are currently 174 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (2 more than last week - up 1.2%), 14 COVID patients are in ICUs (1 less than last week - down 6.7%), and 3 COVID patients are intubated (1 less than last week - down 25.0%).

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 105.6 (5.4 more than last week - up 5.4%), 64.6% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.5% below the highest observed value of 23,247.3 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.59% (0.14 more than last week - up 5.5%), 742.1% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 90.6% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 174.1 (4.6 more than last week - up 2.7%), 106.6% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 95.5% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 1.9 (0.6 more than last week - up 44.4%), 85.7% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 98.9% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 4,520.0 (226.1 less than last week - down 4.8%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 4,520.0 on 5/9/2023 and 95.9% below the highest observed value of 110,432.1 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,696 non-ICU beds, of which 7,884 (90.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 160 (1.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 652 (7.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,203 ICU beds, of which 974 (81.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 14 (1.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 215 (17.9%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,620 non-ICU beds, of which 7,856 (91.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 157 (1.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 607 (7.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,214 ICU beds, of which 968 (79.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 15 (1.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 231 (19.0%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (May 11), the 7 day molecular test average was 4,520.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 105.6, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 174.1, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.59%.
One week ago (May 4), the 7 day molecular test average was 4,746.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 100.1, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 169.6, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.46%.
Two weeks ago (April 27), the 7 day molecular test average was 5,027.6, the 7 day confirmed case average was 107.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 219.7, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.47%.
One year ago (May 11, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 35,537.6, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,600.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 638.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.89%.
Two years ago (May 11, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 49,517.9, the 7 day confirmed case average was 551.4, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 459.5, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.32%.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 7.86; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 830.0 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 10.96; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 1,156.6 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Saturday, May 6, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 217.0 copies per milliliter (0.7 more than one week prior - up 0.3%), 1,677.9% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 97.5% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 167.9 copies/mL two weeks ago, 700.7 copies/mL one year ago, and 89.8 copies/mL two years ago.
The seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 191.6 copies per milliliter (7.4 less than one week prior - down 3.7%), 1,784.0% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 98.4% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 171.6 copies/mL two weeks ago, 698.2 copies/mL one year ago, and 137.7 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.

Note that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have not updated their various data APIs for this week yet, and thus I haven't added their national data to this wall of text. And, given that their authority to gather much of that data expired today, it's quite possible that they won't update at all.


Newly confirmed deaths and cases up compared to last week? Hospitalizations and percent-positive also up over last week? Even as tests continued to drop (now to levels last seen in March of 2020)?

This is not good news, especially as the public health emergencies are officially ending. At least the MWRA wastewater counts are basically the same as last week.