Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 30 newly reported confirmed deaths (21 more than yesterday - up 233.3%) for a total of 19,291 deaths, 3,425 newly reported confirmed cases (7,364 less than yesterday - down 68.3%) for a total of 1,678,118 cases, and 30,834 newly reported molecular tests (84,787 less than yesterday - down 73.3%). Note that today's death data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 10.0 newly reported deaths per day (1 more than yesterday - up 11.1%).

Note that yesterday's case/test data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 3,596.3 newly reported cases per day and today's newly reported cases are 171 less than yesterday's values - down 4.8%. There were 38,540.3 newly reported molecular tests per day and today's newly reported tests are 7,706 less than yesterday's values - down 20.0%.
The seven day average positivity rate is 9.12%, compared to 8.48% yesterday. The state also reported 2 newly reported probable deaths (5 less than yesterday - down 71.4%) for a total of 1,150 and 751 newly reported probable cases (222 less than yesterday - down 22.8%) for a total of 147,129. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 32 new deaths for a total of 20,441 and 4,176 new cases for a total of 1,825,247. There were 803 COVID-19 patients in hospital (64 more than yesterday - up 8.7%), 78 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (10 more than yesterday - up 14.7%) and 24 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 less than yesterday - down 11.1%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 3,071.0 (248 less than yesterday - down 7.5%), 4,698% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 87.0% below the highest observed value of 23,198.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 9.12% (0 more than yesterday - up 7.5%), 2,863% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 67% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 748.0 (41 more than yesterday - up 5.8%), 790% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 81% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 8.0 (same as yesterday), 700% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 96% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,820 non-ICU beds, of which 7,344 (83.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 725 (8.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 751 (8.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,242 ICU beds, of which 932 (75.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 78 (6.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 232 (18.7%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,763 non-ICU beds, of which 7,438 (84.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 671 (8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 654 (7.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,252 ICU beds, of which 932 (74.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 68 (5.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 252 (20.1%) remained available.

One week ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,606.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 606.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.58%.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,034.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 4.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 464.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.63%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 419.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 385.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.02% (or 1.66% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of May 16, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3220 counties nationwide, 1642 counties (50.99% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 541 counties (16.80% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 730 counties (22.67% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 307 counties (9.53% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts have a Community Tranmission Level of High.

Barnstable County has 377.010 cases per 100k, 12.18 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 740.330 cases per 100k, 10.95 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 261.670 cases per 100k, 8.42 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has 305.790 cases per 100k, 10.08 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Essex County has 339.780 cases per 100k, 10.0 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 293.530 cases per 100k, 7.38 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampden County has 417.480 cases per 100k, 11.57 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 572.650 cases per 100k, 6.04 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Middlesex County has 412.360 cases per 100k, 8.59 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 210.540 cases per 100k, 9.36 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Norfolk County has 359.380 cases per 100k, 9.68 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 257.290 cases per 100k, 8.77 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 413.480 cases per 100k, 7.56 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 343.480 cases per 100k, 8.39 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of May 12, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3223 counties nationwide: 137 counties (4.25%) with High community level, 456 counties (14.15%) with Medium community level, and 2630 counties (81.60%) with Low community level. The CDC also reported the following COVID Community Levels for the 14 counties in Massachusetts: 11 counties with High community level (Barnstable, Berkshire, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 3 counties with Medium community level (Bristol, Hampden, Hampshire).

Barnstable County (population 212990) has 356.82 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 712.32 cases per 100k, 14.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 233.89 cases per 100k, 9.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 288.48 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Essex County (population 789034) has 311.27 cases per 100k, 10.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 299.23 cases per 100k, 13.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 354.01 cases per 100k, 7.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 514.83 cases per 100k, 7.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 382.76 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 245.64 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 322.17 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 231.96 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 421.57 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 299.41 cases per 100k, 13.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
The underlying query for this data is available here.

Day-to-day comparisons are about as whacky as one might expect for a Tuesday, with three days of death reports today fueling a big jump and three days of case reports yesterday fuelling a big drop. On the other hand, today's 30 newly reported confirmed deaths are the highest Tuesday number since 61 were reported on March 8, while the 3,425 newly reported confirmed cases are the highest single-day Tuesday report since 7,120 cases were reported on January 25. Hospitalizations are up again as well, cracking the eight hundred mark for the first time since February 16. The seven-day cases average ticked down a bit but is still over three thousand, the deaths average held about steady, while the hospitalization and percent-positive averages climbed yet again. Percent-positive is now over nine percent, at 9.12%.

I'd love to think that the day-to-day drops (especially in cases) were significant, but I've noticed over the last few months that there's a lot more noise in day-over-day comparisons than I've seen previously. Week-over-week comparisons, on the other hand, have been showing a consistent (and depressing) trend of more virus in the wastewater, more cases, more hospitalizations and now more deaths.

The Johns Hopkins University worldwide COVID-19 map is showing 82,695,491 cases and 1,000,068 deaths nationwide, breaking the one million mark:

The U.S. death toll from COVID-19 hit 1 million on Tuesday, according to Johns Hopkins University, a once-unimaginable figure that only hints at the multitudes of loved ones and friends staggered by grief and frustration.

The confirmed number of dead is equivalent to a 9/11 attack every day for 336 days. It is roughly equal to how many Americans died in the Civil War and World War II combined. It's as if Boston and Pittsburgh were wiped out.
Related: Charts: COVID-19 has killed 1 million people in the US. See how the virus has affected each state.

"It is hard to imagine a million people plucked from this earth," said Jennifer Nuzzo, who leads a new pandemic center at the Brown University School of Public Health in Providence, Rhode Island. "It's still happening and we are letting it happen."

[ ... ]

The death toll less than 2 1/2 years into the outbreak is based on data from Johns Hopkins University. But the real number of lives lost to COVID-19, either directly or indirectly, as a result the disruption of the health care system in the world's richest country, is believed to be far higher.

The U.S. has the highest reported COVID-19 death toll of any country, though health experts have long suspected that the real number of deaths in places such as India, Brazil and Russia is higher than the official figures.

The milestone comes more than three months after the U.S. reached 900,000 dead. The pace has slowed since a harrowing winter surge fueled by the omicron variant.

The U.S. is averaging about 300 COVID-19 deaths per day, compared with a peak of about 3,400 a day in January 2021. New cases are on the rise again, climbing more than 60% in the past two weeks to an average of about 86,000 a day — still well below the all-time high of over 800,000, reached when the omicron variant was raging during the winter.

[ ... ]

More than half the deaths occurred since vaccines became available in December of 2020. Two-thirds of Americans are fully vaccinated, and nearly half of them have had at least one booster dose. But demand for the vaccine has plummeted, and the campaign to put shots in arms has been plagued by misinformation, distrust and political polarization.

Unvaccinated people have a 10 times greater risk of dying of COVID-19 than the fully vaccinated, according to the CDC.

"To me, that is what is just so particularly heartbreaking," Nuzzo said. Vaccines are safe and greatly reduce the likelihood of severe illness, she said. They "largely take the possibility of death off the table."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVID Data Tracker page United States COVID-19 Cases, Deaths, and Laboratory Testing (NAATs) by State, Territory, and Jurisdiction for today is showing 82,522,948 total cases and 997,468 total deaths nationwide, slightly behind the JHU numbers. Regardless, though, that's way too many deaths and cases. But what I find scarier is the fact that the CDC page is also showing a nationwide seven-day case rate of 198.6 cases per 100k population. Any county with 200 or more cases per 100k population over seven days gets bumped up at least to the Medium level on the CDC's Community Level maps, which as of Friday still claimed that over eighty percent of the counties in the US have Low community level. Will there be any governmental response to what will likely be more than half the country jumping out of the "Don't Worry, Be Happy" level come Thursday night? (Probably not, but I'll be gladly proven wrong.)

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 3,292 cumulative cases and a "Chart configuration incomplete" message. The most recent working results showed 71 active and 3,240 cumulative cases as of May 13. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.