Local COVID-19 updates
May. 17th, 2021 06:01 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 19 newly reported confirmed deaths (14 more than yesterday - up 280.0%) for a total of 17,413 deaths, 281 newly reported confirmed cases (213 less than yesterday - down 43.1%) for a total of 657,119 cases, and 20,253 newly reported molecular tests (23,841 less than yesterday - down 54.1%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.02%, compared to 1.00% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 1.66%, compared to 1.66% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 13,827 (319 less than yesterday - down 2.3%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 359 and 18 newly reported probable cases (37 less than yesterday - down 67.3%) for a total of 45,219. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 19 new deaths for a total of 17,772 and 299 new cases for a total of 702,338. There were 336 COVID-19 patients in hospital (1 less than yesterday - down 0.3%), 96 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 more than yesterday - up 2.1%) and 56 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 more than yesterday - up 1.8%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 419.0 (3 more than yesterday - up 0.7%), 166% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 94.0% below the highest observed value of 6,238.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.02% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.6%), 32% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 96% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 385.0 (13 less than yesterday - down 3.3%), 148% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 91% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 8.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 33.3%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 8.0 on 5/6/2021 and 96% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,040 non-ICU beds, of which 6,917 (76.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 240 (2.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,883 (20.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,361 ICU beds, of which 816 (60.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 96 (7.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 449 (33.0%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,093 non-ICU beds, of which 7,189 (79.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 243 (3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,661 (18.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,371 ICU beds, of which 857 (62.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 94 (6.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 420 (30.6%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 847.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 10.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 573.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.49% (or 2.58% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Big jump in deaths day-to-day, which isn't good at all. Newly reported cases and tests are both down by a bunch, which implies weekend reporting wonkiness rather than any sort of improvement in the situation. There is some definitely good news in the continued downtrend for estimated active cases, but the seven-day averages for cases and percent-positive both are up compared to yesterday, which isn't good news at all.
The really big news for the day, of course, is Governor Charlie Baker's announcement that all remaining business restrictions, as well as the state's mask mandates, will be lifted on May 29, less than two weeks from today:
I think Baker is really jumping the gun here. Yes, the state is on track to have most of the population fully vaccinated in the next few weeks, and the case trendlines are definitely trending downward. But we're still averaging over six hundred newly reported cases a day (counting both confirmed and probable cases), and the death counts (while low) do not show a downward trend anymore. As annoying as the mask mandates are, they're still the only protection available for the unvaccinated - which includes every child under the age of 12, most youth 12-16, and (even if the state hits its June target) around a third of the population as a whole. Is that enough to kill off this pandemic? It'd be nice to think so, but I'm skeptical as all hell.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 6 active and 975 cumulative cases as of May 16. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 12PM on May 17, 2021 reported 975 cumulative cases with 6 individuals in isolation, 937 persons recovered and 32 fatalities; that's 24 more cumulative cases, 31 more persons recovered and (thankfully!) no additional fatalities compared to the previous update at 6PM on April 27, 2021.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 419.0 (3 more than yesterday - up 0.7%), 166% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 94.0% below the highest observed value of 6,238.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.02% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.6%), 32% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 96% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 385.0 (13 less than yesterday - down 3.3%), 148% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 91% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 8.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 33.3%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 8.0 on 5/6/2021 and 96% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,040 non-ICU beds, of which 6,917 (76.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 240 (2.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,883 (20.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,361 ICU beds, of which 816 (60.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 96 (7.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 449 (33.0%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,093 non-ICU beds, of which 7,189 (79.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 243 (3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,661 (18.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,371 ICU beds, of which 857 (62.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 94 (6.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 420 (30.6%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 847.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 10.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 573.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.49% (or 2.58% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Big jump in deaths day-to-day, which isn't good at all. Newly reported cases and tests are both down by a bunch, which implies weekend reporting wonkiness rather than any sort of improvement in the situation. There is some definitely good news in the continued downtrend for estimated active cases, but the seven-day averages for cases and percent-positive both are up compared to yesterday, which isn't good news at all.
The really big news for the day, of course, is Governor Charlie Baker's announcement that all remaining business restrictions, as well as the state's mask mandates, will be lifted on May 29, less than two weeks from today:
In a major move heralding the end of pandemic-era regulations, Governor Charlie Baker on Monday said Massachusetts will lift all restrictions on businesses Memorial Day weekend, moving up the full reopening date by two months. It was a telling sign that the state is returning to something akin to normal after more than a year of death, sickness, and punishing lockdowns.
Baker announced the change at a press briefing, which followed the CDC's easing last week of indoor mask guidance for fully vaccinated people. His office also confirmed the news in a statement which declared: "The Commonwealth is on track to meet the goal of vaccinating 4.1 million residents by the first week of June and all remaining COVID-19 restrictions will be lifted effective May 29."
The governor said he will end the State of Emergency on June 15.
In addition, he said the state will rescind its face covering order May 29, replacing it with the CDC's new guidance for vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
[ ... ]
Face coverings will still be mandatory for all riders on public and private transportation systems (including rideshares, livery, taxi, ferries, MBTA, Commuter Rail and transportation stations), in healthcare facilities and in other settings hosting vulnerable populations, such as congregate care settings, according to his statement.
Effective May 18, "guidance from the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and the Department of Early Education and Care will be updated to no longer require masks for outdoor activities like recess and to allow for the sharing of objects in classrooms, in both K-12 and childcare settings. This guidance will remain in effect beyond May 29," it said.
[ ... ]
Asked during Monday's briefing if the accelerated reopening means COVID-19 is vanquished in Massachusetts, Baker chose his words carefully, comparing the virus to a horror villain who keeps coming back to terrorize the public over and over again.
"COVID's a little bit like, you know, Michael Myers," Baker said, referring to the character from the Halloween movies. "I think what I would say is that we have made tremendous progress, and that's why we are able to do what we're doing here and what we're proposing here today." He referenced the fact that three out of four adults are on the verge of being fully vaccinated, with hopes for similar numbers as younger residents become eligible. "And when more than, or roughly 90 percent of everybody over the age of 75 is vaccinated, you're talking about a situation and a circumstance where . . . where the people of Massachusetts have set the Commonwealth up to be successful going forward from here."
I think Baker is really jumping the gun here. Yes, the state is on track to have most of the population fully vaccinated in the next few weeks, and the case trendlines are definitely trending downward. But we're still averaging over six hundred newly reported cases a day (counting both confirmed and probable cases), and the death counts (while low) do not show a downward trend anymore. As annoying as the mask mandates are, they're still the only protection available for the unvaccinated - which includes every child under the age of 12, most youth 12-16, and (even if the state hits its June target) around a third of the population as a whole. Is that enough to kill off this pandemic? It'd be nice to think so, but I'm skeptical as all hell.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 6 active and 975 cumulative cases as of May 16. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 12PM on May 17, 2021 reported 975 cumulative cases with 6 individuals in isolation, 937 persons recovered and 32 fatalities; that's 24 more cumulative cases, 31 more persons recovered and (thankfully!) no additional fatalities compared to the previous update at 6PM on April 27, 2021.