Local COVID-19 updates
Feb. 16th, 2022 05:28 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 46 newly reported confirmed deaths (44 less than yesterday - down 48.9%) for a total of 22,324 deaths, 1,653 newly reported confirmed cases (194 more than yesterday - up 13.3%) for a total of 1,525,644 cases, and 77,028 newly reported molecular tests (39,966 more than yesterday - up 107.8%).
Note that yesterday's death data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 30.0 newly reported deaths per day and today's newly reported deaths are 16 more than yesterday's values - up 53.3%.
The seven day average positivity rate is 2.90%, compared to 3.09% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (27 less than yesterday - down 96.4%) for a total of 697 and 246 newly reported probable cases (21 more than yesterday - up 9.3%) for a total of 130,768. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 47 new deaths for a total of 23,021 and 1,899 new cases for a total of 1,656,412. There were 832 COVID-19 patients in hospital (50 less than yesterday - down 5.7%), 161 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (7 less than yesterday - down 4.2%) and 76 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than yesterday - down 1.3%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,206.0 (129 less than yesterday - down 9.7%), 1,784% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 95.0% below the highest observed value of 23,179.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.90% (0 less than yesterday - down 6.2%), 842% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 90% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,004.0 (62 less than yesterday - down 5.8%), 1,081% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 75% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 38.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 2.7%), 3,700% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 79% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,001 non-ICU beds, of which 7,534 (83.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 671 (7.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 796 (8.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,273 ICU beds, of which 876 (68.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 161 (12.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 236 (18.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,863 non-ICU beds, of which 7,232 (81.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 714 (8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 917 (10.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,247 ICU beds, of which 830 (66.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 168 (13.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 249 (20.0%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,318.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 54.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,187.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 6.37%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,343.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 45.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,222.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.22% (or 3.60% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-over-day comparisons are ... mixed. Deaths down in raw numbers compared to yesterday, but yesterday covered three days of death data; today's 46 newly reported confirmed deaths are up over fifty percent compared to the average of those three days. Cases are also up, but hospitalizations continue to trend downward. The seven-day average of deaths is also up, but the other three seven-day averages are down. I'm particularly glad that the percent-positive rate is below three percent, as it's a decent sign that there's enough testing being reported to catch the next damn surge in cases.
Meanwhile, the good folks at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are considering changing their guidance around COVID-19:
Yes, things are improving, especially compared to December and January. That's nowhere near the same as saying things are in great shape, especially as the latest CDC county-level data is still showing 6,244 counties nationwide (94.7% of the total) with high levels of community transmission (defined as either over 100 new cases per 100k population or percent-positive rate over 10% for the last week).
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 18 active and 2,749 cumulative cases as of February 15 (its first update since February 9). The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.
Note that yesterday's death data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 30.0 newly reported deaths per day and today's newly reported deaths are 16 more than yesterday's values - up 53.3%.
The seven day average positivity rate is 2.90%, compared to 3.09% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (27 less than yesterday - down 96.4%) for a total of 697 and 246 newly reported probable cases (21 more than yesterday - up 9.3%) for a total of 130,768. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 47 new deaths for a total of 23,021 and 1,899 new cases for a total of 1,656,412. There were 832 COVID-19 patients in hospital (50 less than yesterday - down 5.7%), 161 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (7 less than yesterday - down 4.2%) and 76 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than yesterday - down 1.3%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,206.0 (129 less than yesterday - down 9.7%), 1,784% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 95.0% below the highest observed value of 23,179.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.90% (0 less than yesterday - down 6.2%), 842% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 90% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,004.0 (62 less than yesterday - down 5.8%), 1,081% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 75% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 38.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 2.7%), 3,700% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 79% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,001 non-ICU beds, of which 7,534 (83.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 671 (7.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 796 (8.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,273 ICU beds, of which 876 (68.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 161 (12.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 236 (18.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,863 non-ICU beds, of which 7,232 (81.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 714 (8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 917 (10.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,247 ICU beds, of which 830 (66.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 168 (13.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 249 (20.0%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,318.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 54.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,187.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 6.37%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,343.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 45.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,222.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.22% (or 3.60% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-over-day comparisons are ... mixed. Deaths down in raw numbers compared to yesterday, but yesterday covered three days of death data; today's 46 newly reported confirmed deaths are up over fifty percent compared to the average of those three days. Cases are also up, but hospitalizations continue to trend downward. The seven-day average of deaths is also up, but the other three seven-day averages are down. I'm particularly glad that the percent-positive rate is below three percent, as it's a decent sign that there's enough testing being reported to catch the next damn surge in cases.
Meanwhile, the good folks at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are considering changing their guidance around COVID-19:
As COVID-19 cases in the United States continue to fall after the Omicron variant fueled a rapid surge, Biden administration officials said Wednesday that the country is moving into a period when the virus "isn't a crisis," and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may soon change its recommendations.
Citing at-home tests, masks, treatments for COVID-19, and the fact that about 75 percent of US adults are fully vaccinated, White House COVID-19 response coordinator Jeff Zients said during a press briefing that Biden administration officials are planning for a time when the virus "isn't a crisis, but is something we can protect against and treat."
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, said Omicron cases are declining and heading in the right direction, though she noted more than 97 percent of counties in the US are still considered to have high or substantial community transition.
"We are all cautiously optimistic about the trajectory we are on," Walensky said. "Things are moving in the right direction, but we want to remain vigilant to do all we can so that this trajectory continues."
As the agency considers updating its guidance, Walensky added that hospital capacity and the ability of hospitals to treat people in emergencies needs to be considered as an important metric moving forward. The agency's new metrics will consider "issues related to cases, certainly issues related to severity of disease and hospital capacity," Walensky said.
"We are assessing the most important factors based on where we are in the pandemic and will soon put guidance in place that is relevant and encourages prevention measures when they are most needed to protect public health and our hospitals," Walensky said. "We want to give people a break from things like mask wearing when these metrics are better and then have the ability to reach for them again should things worsen."
In recent days, doctors have voiced support for adhering more strictly to some measures while COVID-19 is surging compared to when case counts are lower.
Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health, said in a Twitter thread last week that he imagines masks being used intermittently over the next year. For example, he wrote, a mayor of a city might implement mask measures during a surge in COVID cases next winter to reduce the spread of the virus.
"Masks on as surges start, off during quiet times," Jha wrote in the tweet. "That's how many countries do it. And that's a good approach."
Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency physician and associate dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said on Twitter on Tuesday that "what we should do during a surge, is different from during a lull."
"Actions depend on community [and] individual risk," Ranney wrote. "Evolving science can [and] should inform choices."
Even with a potential change to CDC guidance, Walensky said there are still a number of situations in which people should wear masks, including if someone is symptomatic or not feeling well, tested positive for the virus within 10 days, and if you were exposed to someone who has COVID and are quarantining. Masks are also still required in certain settings, like public transportation.
The CDC currently recommends that people wear masks indoors in areas of high or substantial COVID-19 transmission. In recent weeks, multiple states rolled back their mask mandates as COVID-19 cases continued to drop. On Tuesday, Massachusetts loosened its recommendation on indoor masking, now suggesting that among fully vaccinated people, only those at higher risk for the virus should wear masks indoors.
Yes, things are improving, especially compared to December and January. That's nowhere near the same as saying things are in great shape, especially as the latest CDC county-level data is still showing 6,244 counties nationwide (94.7% of the total) with high levels of community transmission (defined as either over 100 new cases per 100k population or percent-positive rate over 10% for the last week).
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 18 active and 2,749 cumulative cases as of February 15 (its first update since February 9). The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.