Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 84 newly reported confirmed deaths (4 more than yesterday - up 5.0%) for a total of 21,271 deaths, 8,616 newly reported confirmed cases (698 more than yesterday - up 8.8%) for a total of 1,466,315 cases, and 117,902 newly reported molecular tests (174 less than yesterday - down 0.1%).The seven day average positivity rate is 9.48%, compared to 10.37% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 15.07%; that rate was not reported yesterday. The state also reported 3 newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 568 and 1,081 newly reported probable cases (44 more than yesterday - up 4.2%) for a total of 123,987. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 87 new deaths for a total of 21,839 and 9,697 new cases for a total of 1,590,302. There were 2,521 COVID-19 patients in hospital (96 less than yesterday - down 3.7%), 396 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (9 less than yesterday - down 2.2%) and 237 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (11 less than yesterday - down 4.4%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 6,013.0 (589 less than yesterday - down 8.9%), 9,295% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 75.0% below the highest observed value of 23,135.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 9.48% (0 less than yesterday - down 8.5%), 2,976% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 66% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,824.0 (83 less than yesterday - down 2.9%), 3,222% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 28% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 61.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 1.7%), 6,000% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 66% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,054 non-ICU beds, of which 6,305 (69.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 2,125 (23.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 624 (6.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,289 ICU beds, of which 699 (54.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 396 (30.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 194 (15.1%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,004 non-ICU beds, of which 6,163 (68.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 2,212 (25%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 629 (7.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,289 ICU beds, of which 693 (53.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 405 (31.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 191 (14.8%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 13,314.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 43.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,871.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 20.34% (or 24.53% excluding higher education).

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,677.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 57.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,037.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.67% (or 6.44% excluding higher education).

Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 2,548 total cases, with a two-week case count of 404 cases, a daily incidence rate of 121.6 which is lower than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of red (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 86,052 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 3,368 and a two-week positive test count of 448, for a percent-positive rate of 13.30 which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 1,457,699 total cases, with a two-week case count of 181,290 cases, a daily incidence rate of 185.9 which is lower than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 38,727,775 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,326,682 and a two-week positive test count of 203,389, for a percent-positive rate of 15.33 which is lower than last week.

As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 23 would be coded gray (compared to 17 last week), 7 would be coded green (compared to 10 last week), and 19 would be coded yellow (compared to 13 last week).The remaining 302 towns would be coded red (compared to 311 last week): Abington, Acton, Acushnet, Adams, Agawam, Amesbury, Amherst, Andover, Arlington, Ashburnham, Ashby, Ashfield, Ashland, Athol, Attleboro, Auburn, Avon, Ayer, Barnstable, Barre, Becket, Bedford, Belchertown, Bellingham, Belmont, Berkley, Berlin, Bernardston, Beverly, Billerica, Blackstone, Blandford, Bolton, Boston, Bourne, Boxborough, Boxford, Boylston, Braintree, Brewster, Bridgewater, Brimfield, Brockton, Brookfield, Brookline, Buckland, Burlington, Cambridge, Canton, Carlisle, Carver, Charlton, Chatham, Chelmsford, Chelsea, Cheshire, Chicopee, Clarksburg, Clinton, Cohasset, Colrain, Concord, Dalton, Danvers, Dartmouth, Dedham, Deerfield, Dennis, Dighton, Douglas, Dover, Dracut, Dudley, Dunstable, Duxbury, East Bridgewater, East Brookfield, East Longmeadow, Easthampton, Easton, Edgartown, Erving, Essex, Everett, Fairhaven, Fall River, Falmouth, Fitchburg, Foxborough, Framingham, Franklin, Freetown, Gardner, Georgetown, Gill, Gloucester, Grafton, Granby, Great Barrington, Greenfield, Groton, Groveland, Hadley, Halifax, Hamilton, Hampden, Hanover, Hanson, Hardwick, Harvard, Harwich, Hatfield, Haverhill, Hingham, Hinsdale, Holbrook, Holden, Holland, Holliston, Holyoke, Hopedale, Hopkinton, Hubbardston, Hudson, Hull, Huntington, Ipswich, Kingston, Lakeville, Lancaster, Lanesborough, Lawrence, Lee, Leicester, Lenox, Leominster, Lexington, Lincoln, Littleton, Longmeadow, Lowell, Ludlow, Lunenburg, Lynn, Lynnfield, Malden, Manchester, Mansfield, Marblehead, Marion, Marlborough, Marshfield, Mashpee, Mattapoisett, Maynard, Medfield, Medford, Medway, Melrose, Mendon, Merrimac, Methuen, Middleborough, Middleton, Milford, Millbury, Millis, Millville, Milton, Monson, Montague, Nahant, Nantucket, Natick, Needham, New Bedford, Newbury, Newburyport, Newton, Norfolk, North Adams, North Andover, North Attleborough, North Brookfield, North Reading, Northampton, Northborough, Northbridge, Northfield, Norton, Norwell, Norwood, Oak Bluffs, Oakham, Orange, Orleans, Otis, Oxford, Palmer, Paxton, Peabody, Pembroke, Pepperell, Petersham, Phillipston, Pittsfield, Plainville, Plymouth, Plympton, Princeton, Provincetown, Quincy, Randolph, Raynham, Reading, Rehoboth, Revere, Rochester, Rockland, Rockport, Rowley, Russell, Rutland, Salem, Salisbury, Sandwich, Saugus, Scituate, Seekonk, Sharon, Sheffield, Shelburne, Sherborn, Shirley, Shrewsbury, Somerset, Somerville, South Hadley, Southampton, Southborough, Southbridge, Southwick, Spencer, Springfield, Sterling, Stoneham, Stoughton, Stow, Sturbridge, Sudbury, Sunderland, Sutton, Swampscott, Swansea, Taunton, Templeton, Tewksbury, Tisbury, Topsfield, Townsend, Tyngsborough, Upton, Uxbridge, Wakefield, Wales, Walpole, Waltham, Ware, Wareham, Warren, Watertown, Wayland, Webster, Wellesley, Wendell, Wenham, West Boylston, West Bridgewater, West Brookfield, West Newbury, West Springfield, West Tisbury, Westborough, Westfield, Westford, Westminster, Weston, Westport, Westwood, Weymouth, Whitman, Wilbraham, Williamsburg, Williamstown, Wilmington, Winchendon, Winchester, Winthrop, Woburn, Worcester, Wrentham, and Yarmouth.

2 cities/towns would be newly coded red this week (Shelburne, and Wendell) and 11 cities/towns would no longer be coded red this week (Chester, Conway, Eastham, Granville, Leverett, Richmond, Royalston, Shutesbury, Stockbridge, West Stockbridge, and Whately).

Of the 10 towns nearby (including my own town), none are coded gray, none are coded green, none are coded yellow, and 10 are coded red (Acton, Boxborough, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Concord, Littleton, Maynard, Stow, Sudbury, and Westford).

Of the 10 towns near my church, none are coded gray, none are coded green, none are coded yellow, and 10 are coded red (Acton, Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

The news is definitely mixed today. On the bad side, newly confirmed deaths continue to climb; even worse, newly confirmed cases are also up for the third day in a row. Hospitalizations did drop again, which is good to see. The seven-day average for deaths keeps ticking up as well. On the other hand, the seven-day averages for cases, hospitalizations and percent-positive are all down; at 9.48%, the percent-positive average is below ten percent for the first time since December 27, 2021, one month ago.

The weekly city/town data shows a slight improvement; were the Commonwealth still reporting risk color codes, "only" 302 communities would be in the highest "red" category, down nine from last week. Still, that's basically the entire state, including my home town, my church's town, and every town bordering either of them.

While the case counts are far better than a couple of weeks ago, they're still far, far too high for comfort. And recent projections are that they'll stay high for weeks:

Many people will still get ill even as COVID-19 case counts decline from the peak of the Omicron surge in Massachusetts, experts caution, emphasizing the need to continue to take precautions.

And the numbers are enough to give you pause. Pandemic models suggest tens of thousands of cases will be reported in the next few weeks.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ensemble model, updated weekly, predicts that in the four weeks from Jan. 22 to Feb. 19, there will be about 243,000 cases reported in the state, with the daily average sinking to 5,188 on Feb. 19. The model combines a number of models, created by a variety of research groups, that are both more and less pessimistic.

The seven-day average of confirmed and probable reported cases as of Wednesday was 11,030, according to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.

The closely watched University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model paints a more optimistic picture.

According to the model, in the period from Jan. 22 to Feb. 19 there will be around 154,000 cases reported. And on Feb. 19, the state will be tallying 1,618 cases per day. Looking further ahead than the CDC model, the IHME model paints an extremely rosy picture, predicting there will only be 171 cases per day recorded in the state on April 1.

Experts have noted that official case numbers likely undershoot the true number of people who are sick in the population, as some people are asymptomatic, while others who are symptomatic may stay home and use at-home tests or not get tested at all.

They also emphasize there's a major caveat: There's no guarantee that the decline in the surge will continue to be as steep as it has been in the two weeks since cases peaked around Jan. 11.

The case numbers could stall at a high level on their way down, prolonging the pain. One key factor is people's behavior. If people don't continue to take precautions such as getting vaccinated and boosted and wearing high-quality masks in indoor public spaces, they could stall the decline, experts say.

The latest surge resulted in more than a half-million confirmed and probable cases from the beginning of November, when cases began climbing from a fall plateau, slowly at first but then accelerating, toward the peak.

"Just as many people get infected on that downside as do on the upside," Justin Lessler, professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, cautioned last week. "If you draw out that tail - actually far, far more people could get infected on that downside."

"Caution is still the right way to proceed until things get a lot lower," he said.

Note that the above story doesn't address the fact that the last three days have seen newly reported case counts climb, rather than fall. Yes, we seem to be making progress, but nowhere near as fast as I'd wish - nor as fast as I was starting to hope.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 110 active and 2,594 cumulative cases as of January 25, and apparently has not been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.