Local COVID-19 updates
Dec. 27th, 2021 05:01 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeHey, the state didn't take today off after all! We get data! Of course, the news stinks...
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 25 newly reported confirmed deaths (7 less than Friday - down 21.9%) for a total of 19,629 deaths, 12,983 newly reported confirmed cases (2,943 more than Friday - up 29.3%) for a total of 993,038 cases, and 110,502 newly reported molecular tests (12,283 less than Friday - down 10.0%).
Note that today's data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 4,327.7 newly reported cases per day (5,712 less than Friday - down 56.9%), and 36,834.0 newly reported molecular tests per day (85,951 less than Friday - down 70.0%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 9.49%, compared to 8.32% Friday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (7 less than Friday) for a total of 446 and 808 newly reported probable cases (149 less than Friday - down 15.6%) for a total of 76,272. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 25 new deaths for a total of 20,075 and 13,791 new cases for a total of 1,069,310. There were 1,636 COVID-19 patients in hospital (41 more than Friday - up 2.6%), 378 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (20 more than Friday - up 5.6%) and 242 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (19 more than Friday - up 8.5%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 5,471.0 (85 more than Friday - up 1.6%), 8,448% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 20.0% below the highest observed value of 6,768.0 on 12/23/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 9.49% (0 more than Friday - up 14.2%), 2,979% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 66% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,596.0 (31 more than Friday - up 2.0%), 1,777% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 59% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 24.0 (2 less than Friday - down 7.7%), 2,300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 87% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,555 non-ICU beds, of which 6,019 (70.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,258 (14.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,278 (14.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,231 ICU beds, of which 623 (50.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 378 (30.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 230 (18.7%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,815 non-ICU beds, of which 6,750 (76.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,237 (14%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 828 (9.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,274 ICU beds, of which 699 (54.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 358 (28.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 217 (17.0%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,606.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 14.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,239.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.79%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,782.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 50.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,069.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 6.28%.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
The semi-sorta-good news is that, over the Christmas weekend, newly reported deaths are down and (averaged over the three days of reporting) newly reported confirmed cases are also down. And the state hasn't yet crossed the million-confirmed-case threshhold, which I was expecting after Friday's numbers. And the seven-day average for confirmed deaths is down a tad, as well. However, the hospitalization counts are up again; today's 1,636 patient census is the highest reported since the 1,676 reported on February 1.
Even worse, the seven-day average for percent-positive is up again, now being reported as 9.49%. That's the highest that number has been since May 28, 2020, and it is almost certainly an underestimate. (The state calculates that seven-day average by test date, not reporting date; thus those tests that were adminstered recently but whose results have not gotten to the state by the day's cutoff don't show up in the calculation. For instance, page 2 of the May 28, 2020 dashboard shows a seven-day percent-positive average of 8.1% while today's data download reports an average of 9.67% for that date.)
It's only going to get worse over the next few weeks, if the new records being set by virus levels in Boston-area waste water are to be believed:
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 145 active and 1,634 cumulative cases as of December 26. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 25 newly reported confirmed deaths (7 less than Friday - down 21.9%) for a total of 19,629 deaths, 12,983 newly reported confirmed cases (2,943 more than Friday - up 29.3%) for a total of 993,038 cases, and 110,502 newly reported molecular tests (12,283 less than Friday - down 10.0%).
Note that today's data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 4,327.7 newly reported cases per day (5,712 less than Friday - down 56.9%), and 36,834.0 newly reported molecular tests per day (85,951 less than Friday - down 70.0%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 9.49%, compared to 8.32% Friday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (7 less than Friday) for a total of 446 and 808 newly reported probable cases (149 less than Friday - down 15.6%) for a total of 76,272. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 25 new deaths for a total of 20,075 and 13,791 new cases for a total of 1,069,310. There were 1,636 COVID-19 patients in hospital (41 more than Friday - up 2.6%), 378 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (20 more than Friday - up 5.6%) and 242 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (19 more than Friday - up 8.5%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 5,471.0 (85 more than Friday - up 1.6%), 8,448% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 20.0% below the highest observed value of 6,768.0 on 12/23/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 9.49% (0 more than Friday - up 14.2%), 2,979% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 66% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,596.0 (31 more than Friday - up 2.0%), 1,777% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 59% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 24.0 (2 less than Friday - down 7.7%), 2,300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 87% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,555 non-ICU beds, of which 6,019 (70.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,258 (14.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,278 (14.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,231 ICU beds, of which 623 (50.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 378 (30.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 230 (18.7%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,815 non-ICU beds, of which 6,750 (76.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,237 (14%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 828 (9.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,274 ICU beds, of which 699 (54.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 358 (28.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 217 (17.0%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,606.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 14.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,239.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.79%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,782.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 50.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,069.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 6.28%.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
The semi-sorta-good news is that, over the Christmas weekend, newly reported deaths are down and (averaged over the three days of reporting) newly reported confirmed cases are also down. And the state hasn't yet crossed the million-confirmed-case threshhold, which I was expecting after Friday's numbers. And the seven-day average for confirmed deaths is down a tad, as well. However, the hospitalization counts are up again; today's 1,636 patient census is the highest reported since the 1,676 reported on February 1.
Even worse, the seven-day average for percent-positive is up again, now being reported as 9.49%. That's the highest that number has been since May 28, 2020, and it is almost certainly an underestimate. (The state calculates that seven-day average by test date, not reporting date; thus those tests that were adminstered recently but whose results have not gotten to the state by the day's cutoff don't show up in the calculation. For instance, page 2 of the May 28, 2020 dashboard shows a seven-day percent-positive average of 8.1% while today's data download reports an average of 9.67% for that date.)
It's only going to get worse over the next few weeks, if the new records being set by virus levels in Boston-area waste water are to be believed:
The detection of coronavirus in Boston-area waste water has reached record-breaking levels, with the most recent seven-day average soaring past previous record highs set earlier this month.
On Dec. 23, the seven-day average of virus traces in the waste water in the southern sample of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority's territory was 2,574 RNA copies/mL. That's up from 1,136 copies/mL on Dec. 1, meaning the average has increased by 127 percent in the last three weeks.
Waste-water testing serves as an early-warning sign for a coming COVID-19 surge. Cambridge-based Biobot Analytics, which tests the waste water coming into MWRA's Deer Island treatment plant, has said it has found that the amount of virus in the waste water is correlated with newly diagnosed coronavirus cases four to 10 days later.
The increase in the waste-water levels continues a trend that began around late November, but the tests found that the seven-day averages of virus traces in the waste water have risen incredibly fast over the last three weeks.
In the northern sample, which includes the Boston area, the seven-day average rose from 1,328 RNA copies/mL on Dec. 16 to 2,411 copies on Dec. 23, meaning that the average has almost doubled in the last seven days.
Levels of coronavirus in waste water coming from the northern and southern samples of the MWRA's territory have both risen substantially, well beyond levels seen at the height of the deadly winter surge in mid-January 2021, when cases rose to 5,000-plus per day.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 145 active and 1,634 cumulative cases as of December 26. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.