Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 26 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 less than Friday - down 3.7%) for a total of 19,243 deaths, 11,078 newly reported confirmed cases (6,071 more than Friday - up 121.3%) for a total of 912,508 cases, and 242,858 newly reported molecular tests (138,233 more than Friday - up 132.1%).

Note that today's data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 8.7 newly reported deaths per day (18 less than Friday - down 67.9%), 3,692.7 newly reported cases per day (1,314 less than Friday - down 26.2%), and 80,952.7 newly reported molecular tests per day (23,672 less than Friday - down 22.6%).

The seven day average positivity rate is 4.79%, compared to 5.17% Friday. The state also reported 3 newly reported probable deaths (2 more than Friday - up 200.0%) for a total of 420 and 594 newly reported probable cases (65 less than Friday - down 9.9%) for a total of 68,753. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 29 new deaths for a total of 19,663 and 11,672 new cases for a total of 981,261. There were 1,355 COVID-19 patients in hospital (117 more than Friday - up 9.5%), 287 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (21 more than Friday - up 7.9%) and 159 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (11 more than Friday - up 7.4%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 3,606.0 (201 more than Friday - up 5.9%), 5,534% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 43.0% below the highest observed value of 6,229.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 4.79% (0 less than Friday - down 7.2%), 1,454% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 83% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,239.0 (109 more than Friday - up 9.6%), 1,357% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 69% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 14.0 (4 less than Friday - down 22.2%), 1,300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 92% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,770 non-ICU beds, of which 6,934 (79.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,068 (12.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 768 (8.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,262 ICU beds, of which 775 (61.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 287 (22.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 200 (15.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 9,063 non-ICU beds, of which 7,481 (82.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 972 (11%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 610 (6.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,280 ICU beds, of which 831 (64.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 266 (20.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 183 (14.3%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,850.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 10.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 776.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.72%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,375.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 44.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,605.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.61%.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Comparing Friday's numbers to today's, things could almost be seen to be looking up slightly, as newly reported deaths are down as are cases (when averaged over three days); on the other hand, weekend reporting has been on the wonky side for most of this pandemic. The total hospitalization count is up, which is much more worrying. The seven-day averages are mixed; percent-positive dropped below five again, and deaths are down; however, both cases and hospitalizations are up.

I've been ... irritated, shall we say? ... at Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker for his steadfast refusal to act in the face of this latest surge in COVID cases. Today's Boston Globe had a front-page, above-the-fold article showing I'm not the only one: Without statewide mask mandate against COVID-19, health experts say Mass. will 'fight this war with one arm tied behind our backs':

As numbers of coronavirus cases climb in Massachusetts, a growing chorus of local, state, and federal officials is sounding the call for mask mandates in indoor public places to stanch the spread of the pandemic this winter.

The urging comes amid threats posed by the virus's Delta and Omicron variants, and as the weather grows colder, gatherings move indoors, and the holiday season approaches. The US Centers for Disease Control reported Sunday that every Massachusetts county faces high community transmission and recommends residents wear masks in indoor public settings.

Local health officials, including Julia Raifman, an assistant professor of health law, policy, and management at the Boston University School of Public Health, said Sunday that a statewide indoor mask rule would play an important role in limiting transmission of the virus.

"Massachusetts is a high-transmission setting with a COVID surge, and it is past time for Massachusetts to have an indoor mask policy to protect everyone," Raifman said in an e-mail.

State Representative William Driscoll Jr., who supports a statewide rule for face coverings, said he anticipates a discussion on changes to masking guidance, including mandates, during a legislative virtual hearing on the status of the pandemic scheduled for Thursday at 10 a.m.

Driscoll, who co-chairs the Legislature's Joint Committee on COVID-19 and Emergency Preparedness and Management, said Sunday he is already back to wearing well-fitting masks while he is in an indoor public setting and in large outdoor crowds.

Pointing to recent transmission rates and the pandemic's impact on local hospitals, Driscoll said individuals and the government must do more to slow the spread of COVID-19.

"The past two years have been exhausting and we all want to put the pandemic in the rear-view [mirror]," Driscoll said, "and in order to do that we need to have universal indoor mask wearing during surges and times of increased transmission like we are experiencing now."

[ ... ]

Andrew Lover, an assistant professor at UMass Amherst's School of Public Health and Health Sciences, warned Sunday that the state's post-Thanksgiving increase in cases and hospitalizations will probably continue, or even increase, through the December holidays and into January.

"This very worrisome situation, plus the unknowns around Omicron, really suggests we need to do everything we can, including masking," Lover said in an e-mail. "That's hard news to hear for all of us after so many waves, but unfortunately that's the reality."

Masking up, along with vaccinations, was highlighted as important in the fight against COVID-19 Sunday by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House's top medical advisor.

In an ABC interview Sunday , Fauci said the nation has the tools to protect itself and urged people who are eligible for vaccinations or boosters to get shots. He also urged people to follow public health guidance on masking up.

"You know, masking is not going to be forever, but it can get us out of the very difficult situation we're in now," he said.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former head of the US Food and Drug Administration, on "Face the Nation" Sunday also backed masking up in indoor public places. Gottlieb pointed to states like Massachusetts and New Hampshire where the health care systems are pressed due to rising cases from the dominant Delta variant.

"Mask mandates are the easiest thing we can do, the sort of collective action that puts some downward pressure on spread," Gottlieb said.

[ ... ]

Looking ahead, William Hanage, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard's Chan School, said on Sunday he is concerned about the rise of the Omicron variant, which is likely to surpass the number of new Delta cases by the end of this month and produce large numbers of cases in January.

He was among health officials who urged vaccinations and booster shots. The vaccines are the best way people can protect themselves, including those who have already had COVID-19, he said.

But in addition, he said it was time for Massachusetts to impose a universal mask mandate.

"Past time," Hanage said. "Way past time."

And today Baker actually decided to Do Something! Specifically, two million free at-home rapid tests in the hardest-hit communities in the Commonwealth:

Governor Charlie Baker said Monday that the state will start distributing over 2 million at-home COVID-19 tests across Massachusetts as the pandemic-weary Commonwealth braces for an expected winter surge of infections.

"This week our administration will begin distributing over 2 million free COVID-19 rapid at-home tests across Massachusetts," Baker said during a State House briefing. "For this particular initiative at the beginning we're going to start by focusing on the 100 hardest-hit communities in the Commonwealth."

The Baker administration said in a follow-up statement that the state has secured 2.1 million iHealth Labs over-the-counter rapid tests that'll be sent to 102 communities with the highest percentage of families living below the poverty level.

[ ... ]

Baker said the state is currently conducting some 100,000 tests per day.

"This is not just a one-time distribution of a one-time test," Baker said during the briefing. "We are also in the process of working directly with test manufacturers to make available bulk cheap purchasing deals for every city and town in Massachusetts."

The statement said the administration is finalizing plans to allow municipalities and other public entities to directly purchase tests from manufacturers at fixed, state-negotiated prices.

Baker's office, the statement said, will provide more details on how municipalities can procure these tests in the coming weeks.

"With the holidays approaching, we encourage residents to utilize rapid tests as a convenient way to keep family members and friends safe at gatherings," Baker said in the statement. "While these tests are widely available at many pharmacies and retail locations across the Commonwealth, we are making it even easier for residents to get free rapid testing through these initiatives."

Baker also rejected a potential reimplementation of the statewide mask mandate in place at the height of the pandemic. The Globe reported Sunday that a growing chorus of local, state, and federal officials has recently been sounding the call for mask mandates in indoor public places to stop the spread of the pandemic this winter.

"There are no plans to bring back the statewide mask mandate," Baker told reporters when asked about it. "Keep in mind that we're in a very different place than we were in before. Five million people are fully vaccinated, a million and a half of those are boosted. Over 6 million people have at least one dose. And we continued to focus aggressively on those communities and those populations that are most vulnerable."

He also stressed that vaccines protect against serious illness and death.

"If you look at the hospitalization rates of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated in Massachusetts, if the unvaccinated got vaccinated it would drop our hospitalization rates by 50 percent," Baker said. " ... If you're not vaccinated, get vaccinated."

Certainly, free tests means people can more easily tell if they're infected, ideally isolating themselves and getting treated with some of the new therapies out there. But Baker continues to absolutely and categorically reject reducing case rates through mask mandates.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 37 active and 1,436 cumulative cases as of December 12. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 1PM on November 22, 2021 reported 1304 cumulative cases with 54 individuals in isolation, 1218 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.