Local COVID-19 updates

Something I missed in yesterday's daily dashboard: Massachusetts is once again including probable cases in their daily reports. (They'd stopped doing so back on August 12, relegating the probable cases to the weekly report.) And, because the definition of a probable case has changed, they've changed their probable case and death data. So I'll once again include those numbers in these updates going forward. (Until they change their minds again, that is ...)

Anyway, as of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 17 newly reported confirmed deaths (5 less than yesterday - down 22.7%) for a total of 8,870 deaths, 393 newly reported confirmed cases (105 more than yesterday - up 36.5%) for a total of 119,819 cases, and 31,584 new patients tested by molecular tests (16,005 more than yesterday - up 102.7%) for a total of 1,801,585 individuals tested, with a total of 2,560,869 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 1.2%, compared to 1.8% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 207 deaths, 22 newly reported probable cases (17 more than yesterday - up 340.0%) for a total of 1,727 cases, The state also reported 441 patients tested by antibody tests (230 less than yesterday - down 34.3%) for a total of 114,108 and 1,304 patients tested by antigen tests (862 less than yesterday - down 39.8%) for a total of 90,721. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 17 new deaths for a total of 9,077 and 415 new cases for a total of 121,546.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 338.4 compared to 356.7 last week (down 5.1%) and 256.1 two weeks ago (up 32.1%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 13.6 compared to 19.7 last week (down 31.0%) and 12.7 two weeks ago (up 6.7%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 21,678.4 compared to 23,455.3 last week (down 7.6%) and 18,275.1 two weeks ago (up 18.6%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 1.6% compared to 1.5% last week and 1.4% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 0.9%, 0% above the lowest observed value of 0.9% on September 2. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 313, 4% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 2, 2 above the lowest observed value of 0 on August 29. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 13, 19% above the lowest observed value of 11 on August 4.

I'm always happy when deaths go down, as they did today; I'm less happy when cases go up, but the number of molecular tests went way up on a day-to-day basis, driving down the percentage coming back positive, which makes me relatively happy. I'm also cautiously optimistic upon seeing the seven-day average of newly confirmed cases tick downward from last week.

Also probably worth noting: as of this report, the Commonwealth has done more than two and a half million molecular tests.

For those who are interested, here is the full statement from page 1 of today's daily dashboard regarding how the state is (now) reporting probable cases and deaths:
( cut for those who are not interested )

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 3PM on August 31, the town of Acton reported 198 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 4 individuals in isolation, 173 recovered and 21 fatalities.