Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today (Thursday, August 24, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 17 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 more than last week - up 6.2%) for a total of 22,748 confirmed deaths. There were 3 newly reported probable deaths (2 less than last week - down 40.0%) for a total of 2,054 probable deaths. In total, 20 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (1 less than last week - down 4.8%) for a total of 24,802 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 2,048 newly reported confirmed cases (459 more than last week - up 28.9%) for a total of 2,053,003 confirmed cases. There were 696 newly reported probable cases (same as last week) for a total of 209,326 probable cases. In total, 2,744 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (459 more than last week - up 20.1%) for a total of 2,262,329 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 19,299 new molecular tests (1,847 more than last week - up 10.6%) for a total of 50,353,674. The seven-day average positivity rate is 10.83%, compared to 9.94% last week. There are currently 300 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (31 more than last week - up 11.5%), 32 COVID patients are in ICUs (1 more than last week - up 3.2%), and 6 COVID patients are intubated (1 less than last week - down 14.3%). Over the last seven days, there were 377 new hospitalizations (31 less than last week - down 7.6%), which is a rate of 5.36 hospitalizations per 100k population (0.4 less than last week - down 7.6%). Under CDC's current definitions, the current COVID-19 hospital admissions level statewide is Low, compared to Low last week.

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 228.9 (34.3 more than last week - up 17.6%), 256.8% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.0% below the highest observed value of 23,246.3 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 10.83% (0.90 more than last week - up 9.0%), 3,419.9% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 60.9% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 288.6 (34.9 more than last week - up 13.7%), 242.4% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 92.6% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 1.9 (same as last week), 550.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.3 on 8/5/2023 and 98.9% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 2,294.4 (129.7 more than last week - up 6.0%), 20.6% above the lowest observed value of 1,902.4 on 7/8/2023 and 97.9% below the highest observed value of 110,431.1 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,471 non-ICU beds, of which 7,518 (88.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 268 (3.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 685 (8.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,178 ICU beds, of which 916 (77.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 32 (2.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 230 (19.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,537 non-ICU beds, of which 7,681 (90.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 238 (2.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 618 (7.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,184 ICU beds, of which 933 (78.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 31 (2.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 220 (18.6%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (August 24), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,294.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 228.9, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 288.6, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 10.83%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 5.4.
One week ago (August 17), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,164.7, the 7 day confirmed case average was 194.6, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 253.7, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 9.94%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 5.8.
Two weeks ago (August 10), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,023.9, the 7 day confirmed case average was 165.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.1, the 7 day hospitalization average was 200.4, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 9.00%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 4.2.
One year ago (August 18, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 13,253.3, the 7 day confirmed case average was 923.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.4, the 7 day hospitalization average was 569.3, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.84%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 9.5.
Two years ago (August 24, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 40,963.7, the 7 day confirmed case average was 971.4, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 3.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 486.5, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.72%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 0.8.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 5.78; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 1,321.9 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 17.85; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 4,085.9 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Thursday, August 17, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 422.6 copies per milliliter (116.3 less than one week prior - down 21.6%), 3,362.9% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 95.2% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 468.3 copies/mL two weeks ago, 549.8 copies/mL one year ago, and 375.1 copies/mL two years ago.
The seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 412.2 copies per milliliter (17.3 more than one week prior - up 4.4%), 3,953.1% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 96.5% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 457.3 copies/mL two weeks ago, 436.6 copies/mL one year ago, and 275.2 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.


Newly reported deaths ticked up by one. Newly reported confirmed cases up nearly thirty percent, while newly reported tests are only up around ten percent; thus the percent-positive ratio has broken the ten-percent mark for the first time since January 19, when it was reported at 10.86%. The current hospitalization count is up to three hundred, the highest level reported since April 6.

At least the MWRA wastewater levels haven't been showing big jumps over the last couple of weeks. And the absolute numbers of hospitalizations and deaths are still low compared to previous surges. But a percent-positive ratio over ten percent and climbing is bad news.