edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
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As of 5PM today (Thursday January 19, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 125 newly reported confirmed deaths (17 less than last Thursday - down 12.0%) for a total of 21,658 deaths, 6,804 newly reported confirmed cases (2,556 less than last Thursday - down 27.3%) for a total of 1,994,476 cases, and 69,570 newly reported molecular tests (13,284 less than last Thursday - down 16.0%). Note that today's death data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 17.9 newly reported deaths per day (124 less than last Thursday - down 87.4%).
Note that today's case/test data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 972.0 newly reported cases per day (8,388 less than last Thursday - down 89.6%), and 9,938.6 newly reported molecular tests per day (72,915 less than last Thursday - down 88.0%).

Note that last Thursday's death data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 20.3 newly reported deaths per day and today's newly reported deaths are 105 more than last Thursday's values - up 516.2%.
Note that last Thursday's case/test data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 1,337.1 newly reported cases per day and today's newly reported cases are 5,467 more than last Thursday's values - up 408.8%. There were 11,836.3 newly reported molecular tests per day and today's newly reported tests are 57,734 more than last Thursday's values - up 487.8%.
The seven day average positivity rate is 10.86%, compared to 12.25% last Thursday. The state also reported 21 newly reported probable deaths (1 more than last Thursday - up 5.0%) for a total of 1,747 and 1,595 newly reported probable cases (237 less than last Thursday - down 12.9%) for a total of 191,950. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 146 new deaths for a total of 23,405 and 8,399 new cases for a total of 2,186,426. There were 1,060 COVID-19 patients in hospital (190 less than last Thursday - down 15.2%), 109 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (10 less than last Thursday - down 8.4%) and 50 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 more than last Thursday - up 8.7%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 746.0 (272 less than last Thursday - down 26.7%), 1,065% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 97.0% below the highest observed value of 23,228.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 10.86% (0 less than last Thursday - down 11.3%), 3,430% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 61% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,111.0 (166 less than last Thursday - down 13.0%), 1,222% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 72% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 15.0 (3 less than last Thursday - down 16.7%), 1,400% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 92% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,865 non-ICU beds, of which 7,294 (82.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 951 (10.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 620 (7.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,231 ICU beds, of which 933 (75.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 109 (8.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 189 (15.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last Thursday a total of 8,930 non-ICU beds, of which 7,390 (82.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,131 (13%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 409 (4.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last Thursday a total of 1,243 ICU beds, of which 955 (76.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 119 (9.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 169 (13.6%) remained available.

One week ago (January 12), the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,018.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 18.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,277.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 12.25%.

Two weeks ago (January 5), the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,111.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 14.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,251.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 13.39%.

One year ago (January 19, 2022), the 7 day confirmed case average was 10,013.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 45.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 3,193.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 16.70%.

Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 4,149 total cases, with a two-week case count of 32 cases, a daily incidence rate of 9.5 which is lower than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of yellow (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 113,196 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 324 and a two-week positive test count of 35, for a percent-positive rate of 10.80 which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 1,994,476 total cases, with a two-week case count of 16,060 cases, a daily incidence rate of 16.3 which is lower than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 49,196,452 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 150,495 and a two-week positive test count of 18,134, for a percent-positive rate of 12.05 which is lower than last week.

As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 120 would be coded gray (compared to 106 last week), 24 would be coded green (compared to 27 last week), and 44 would be coded yellow (compared to 41 last week).The remaining 163 towns would be coded red (compared to 177 last week): Abington, Acushnet, Adams, Agawam, Amesbury, Andover, Arlington, Athol, Attleboro, Auburn, Barnstable, Bedford, Belchertown, Bellingham, Belmont, Beverly, Billerica, Boston, Bourne, Braintree, Brewster, Brockton, Brookline, Burlington, Cambridge, Canton, Carver, Charlton, Chelmsford, Chelsea, Chicopee, Clinton, Dalton, Danvers, Dartmouth, Dedham, Dennis, Dracut, Dudley, Duxbury, East Bridgewater, East Longmeadow, Easthampton, Everett, Fairhaven, Fall River, Falmouth, Fitchburg, Foxborough, Framingham, Franklin, Gardner, Gloucester, Grafton, Great Barrington, Greenfield, Hanover, Hanson, Harwich, Haverhill, Hingham, Holbrook, Holden, Holliston, Holyoke, Hopkinton, Hudson, Hull, Ipswich, Kingston, Lawrence, Leicester, Leominster, Longmeadow, Lowell, Ludlow, Lunenburg, Lynn, Lynnfield, Malden, Mansfield, Marblehead, Marlborough, Marshfield, Mashpee, Medford, Medway, Melrose, Methuen, Middleborough, Middleton, Milford, Nantucket, Natick, Needham, New Bedford, Newton, North Adams, North Andover, North Attleborough, North Reading, Northampton, Northborough, Northbridge, Norton, Norwell, Oxford, Palmer, Peabody, Pembroke, Pepperell, Pittsfield, Plymouth, Quincy, Randolph, Raynham, Reading, Rehoboth, Revere, Rockland, Salem, Sandwich, Saugus, Scituate, Shrewsbury, Somerset, Somerville, South Hadley, Southbridge, Southwick, Spencer, Springfield, Stoneham, Stoughton, Sudbury, Swampscott, Swansea, Taunton, Tewksbury, Uxbridge, Wakefield, Walpole, Waltham, Ware, Wareham, Watertown, Wayland, Webster, West Springfield, Westfield, Westford, Westport, Weymouth, Whitman, Wilbraham, Wilmington, Winchendon, Winchester, Winthrop, Woburn, Worcester, Wrentham, and Yarmouth.

2 cities/towns would be newly coded red this week (Dalton, and Winchendon) and 16 cities/towns would no longer be coded red this week (Acton, Ashland, Bridgewater, Easton, Lakeville, Lexington, Littleton, Maynard, Millbury, Milton, Newburyport, Norfolk, Norwood, Sharon, Tyngsborough, and Westborough).

Of the 10 towns nearby (including my own town), 3 are coded gray (Boxborough, Carlisle, and Stow), none are coded green, 4 are coded yellow (Acton, Concord, Littleton, and Maynard), and 3 are coded red (Chelmsford, Sudbury, and Westford).

Of the 10 towns near my church, 4 are coded gray (Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, and Stow), one is coded green (Harvard), 2 are coded yellow (Acton, and Maynard), and 3 are coded red (Hudson, Marlborough, and Sudbury).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of January 19, 2023, the CDC reported a total of 3953 new deaths and 332212 new cases from 60 states and territories nationwide.
The underlying query is available here.
This compares to the previous week:
As of January 12, 2023, the CDC reported a total of 4209 new deaths and 436776 new cases from 60 states and territories nationwide.
The underlying query is available here.
As of January 19, 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3222 counties nationwide, 1975 counties (61.30% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 625 counties (19.40% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 472 counties (14.65% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 150 counties (4.66% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 11 counties have a Community Transmission Level of High (Barnstable, Berkshire, Bristol, Essex, Hampden, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), 2 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Franklin, Hampshire), and 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate (Dukes).

Barnstable County has 115.030 cases per 100k, 11.59 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 149.670 cases per 100k, 10.51 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 115.000 cases per 100k, 15.68 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has suppressed cases per 100k, 1.46 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Essex County has 102.660 cases per 100k, 11.35 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 64.120 cases per 100k, 6.77 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Hampden County has 140.660 cases per 100k, 11.35 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 67.150 cases per 100k, 6.89 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Middlesex County has 87.050 cases per 100k, 11.15 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 131.590 cases per 100k, 17.59 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Norfolk County has 78.670 cases per 100k, 10.6 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 102.460 cases per 100k, 11.38 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 97.150 cases per 100k, 11.65 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 97.640 cases per 100k, 10.97 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high

The underlying query for this data is available here.

This compares to the previous week:
As of January 12, 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3222 counties nationwide, 2301 counties (71.42% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 473 counties (14.68% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 281 counties (8.72% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 167 counties (5.18% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 12 counties have a Community Transmission Level of High (Barnstable, Berkshire, Bristol, Essex, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 2 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Dukes, Franklin).

Barnstable County has 142.730 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 184.080 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 142.070 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has 63.470 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Essex County has 156.770 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 96.890 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Hampden County has 168.960 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 101.970 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Middlesex County has 129.430 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 122.820 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Norfolk County has 120.690 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 126.050 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 135.090 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 127.370 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high

The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of January 19, 2023, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3219 counties nationwide: 196 counties (6.09%, representing 5.82% of the population) with High community level, 1010 counties (31.38%, representing 43.27% of the population) with Medium community level, and 2013 counties (62.53%, representing 50.90% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported the following COVID Community Levels for the 14 counties in Massachusetts (population 6892503): 13 counties (representing 98.19% of the state's population) with Medium community level (Barnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 1 counties (representing 1.81% of the state's population) with Low community level (Berkshire).

Barnstable County (population 212990) has 115.03 cases per 100k (implying 245.00 cases in the county), 18.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 149.67 cases per 100k (implying 187.00 cases in the county), 8.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 115.0 cases per 100k (implying 650.00 cases in the county), 18.8 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 23.08 cases per 100k (implying 4.00 cases in the county), 18.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Medium.
Essex County (population 789034) has 102.66 cases per 100k (implying 810.02 cases in the county), 15.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 9.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 64.12 cases per 100k (implying 45.00 cases in the county), 16.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 140.66 cases per 100k (implying 656.00 cases in the county), 10.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 8.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 67.15 cases per 100k (implying 108.00 cases in the county), 10.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 8.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 87.05 cases per 100k (implying 1,402.98 cases in the county), 18.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 131.59 cases per 100k (implying 15.00 cases in the county), 18.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 78.67 cases per 100k (implying 556.02 cases in the county), 18.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 102.46 cases per 100k (implying 534.02 cases in the county), 18.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 97.15 cases per 100k (implying 781.00 cases in the county), 18.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 97.64 cases per 100k (implying 811.02 cases in the county), 16.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
The CDC community level data implies a total of 6,805.07 cases statewide.

The underlying query for this data is available here.

This compares to the previous week:
As of January 12, 2023, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3218 counties nationwide: 436 counties (13.55%, representing 14.79% of the population) with High community level, 1233 counties (38.32%, representing 52.99% of the population) with Medium community level, and 1549 counties (48.14%, representing 32.22% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts (population 6892503) have a COVID Community Level of Medium.

Barnstable County (population 212990) has 142.73 cases per 100k (implying 304.00 cases in the county), 19.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 184.08 cases per 100k (implying 230.00 cases in the county), 18.6 hospitalizations per 100k and 10.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 142.07 cases per 100k (implying 803.00 cases in the county), 19.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 8.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 63.47 cases per 100k (implying 11.00 cases in the county), 19.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
Essex County (population 789034) has 156.77 cases per 100k (implying 1,236.97 cases in the county), 17.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 10.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 96.89 cases per 100k (implying 68.00 cases in the county), 19.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 168.96 cases per 100k (implying 787.98 cases in the county), 12.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 9.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 101.97 cases per 100k (implying 164.00 cases in the county), 12.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 9.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 129.43 cases per 100k (implying 2,086.02 cases in the county), 19.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 122.82 cases per 100k (implying 14.00 cases in the county), 19.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 120.69 cases per 100k (implying 853.01 cases in the county), 19.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 126.05 cases per 100k (implying 656.98 cases in the county), 19.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 135.09 cases per 100k (implying 1,086.00 cases in the county), 19.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 127.37 cases per 100k (implying 1,057.96 cases in the county), 19.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
The CDC community level data implies a total of 9,358.91 cases statewide.

The underlying query for this data is available here.


(The town of Acton has stopped updating its COVID-19 Information Center and Google Data Studio dashboard.)

For once, the statewide trends are all positive; newly confirmed deaths and cases are both down from last week, as are the hospitalization counts and all four of the seven-day averages. The actual numbers are still much higher than I'd like to see (especially the percent-positive ratio of 10.86%), and the percentage of available non-ICU hospital beds is still too damn low at seven percent. Still, there's definite progress.

Also showing improvement are the numbers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, both at a national level and specifically for the Commonwealth. In particular, new hospitalizations continue to drop statewide, and of Massachusetts' fourteen counties, one (Berkshire) has actually gotten down to a Community Level of Low. The rest of the state remains at Medium.

Stay masked up; this ain't over yet by a long shot. But there has been progress.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

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