Local COVID-19 updates
May. 11th, 2022 05:16 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 7 newly reported confirmed deaths (14 less than yesterday - down 66.7%) for a total of 19,227 deaths, 3,996 newly reported confirmed cases (1,087 more than yesterday - up 37.4%) for a total of 1,653,674 cases, and 55,078 newly reported molecular tests (26,456 more than yesterday - up 92.4%). Note that yesterday's death data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 7.0 newly reported deaths per day and today's newly reported deaths are same as yesterday's values. The seven day average positivity rate is 7.89%, compared to 7.58% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as yesterday) for a total of 1,138 and 590 newly reported probable cases (107 less than yesterday - down 15.4%) for a total of 143,634. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 8 new deaths for a total of 20,365 and 4,586 new cases for a total of 1,797,308. There were 743 COVID-19 patients in hospital (41 more than yesterday - up 5.8%), 57 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (1 more than yesterday - up 1.8%) and 31 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (5 more than yesterday - up 19.2%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,601.0 (5 less than yesterday - down 0.2%), 3,964% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 89.0% below the highest observed value of 23,197.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 7.89% (0 more than yesterday - up 4.1%), 2,464% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 71% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 638.0 (32 more than yesterday - up 5.3%), 659% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 6.0 (same as yesterday), 500% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 97% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,896 non-ICU beds, of which 7,611 (85.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 686 (7.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 599 (6.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,253 ICU beds, of which 939 (74.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 57 (4.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 257 (20.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,771 non-ICU beds, of which 7,283 (83.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 646 (7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 842 (9.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,234 ICU beds, of which 915 (74.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 56 (4.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 263 (21.3%) remained available.
One week ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,059.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 5.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 478.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.79%.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,727.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 3.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 397.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.87%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 551.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 7.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 460.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.32% (or 2.23% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
As of May 10, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3219 counties nationwide, 1291 counties (40.11% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 598 counties (18.58% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 946 counties (29.39% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 384 counties (11.93% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts have a Community Tranmission Level of High.
Barnstable County has 366.680 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 660.300 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 220.450 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has 236.560 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Essex County has 284.020 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 252.210 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampden County has 318.630 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 465.710 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Middlesex County has 370.540 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 245.640 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Norfolk County has 308.580 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 213.740 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 418.950 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 277.620 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
The underlying query for this data is available here. (Note: I have no idea why the CDC transmitted blank percent-positive values today.)
As of May 5, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3224 counties nationwide: 79 counties (2.45%) with High community level, 318 counties (9.86%) with Medium community level, and 2827 counties (87.69%) with Low community level. The CDC also reported the following COVID Community Levels for the 14 counties in Massachusetts: 7 counties with High community level (Barnstable, Berkshire, Franklin, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Worcester), 6 counties with Medium community level (Dukes, Essex, Hampden, Hampshire, Nantucket, Plymouth), and 1 counties with Low community level (Bristol).
Barnstable County (population 212990) has 254.47 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 500.22 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 179.58 cases per 100k, 6.8 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 126.93 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Essex County (population 789034) has 225.34 cases per 100k, 6.8 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 218.01 cases per 100k, 12.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 266.53 cases per 100k, 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 363.12 cases per 100k, 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 305.33 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 166.68 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 254.25 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 167.88 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 368.82 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 237.53 cases per 100k, 12.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
The underlying query for this data is available here.
Total deaths down compared to yesterday, but yesterday's count covers three days, so it should have gone down. However, there was a big jump in newly reported confirmed cases; today's 3,996 are not only way up compared to yesterday, but are way up compared to last Wednesday's 2,985. Hospitalizations are also up again. The seven-day cases average is down a tad compared to yesterday but is way up compared to last Wednesday; the other seven-day averages are all up or even compared to yesterday, and way up compared to last week. All in all, this sucks.
The Boston Globe, at least, has finally noticed the trends of the last couple of months. But, fear not, they say! Experts think we may be nearing the peak:
(Note that this article was posted to the Globe's website before today's statewide numbers were released.)
I really want to believe that we're nearing the peak of this particular surge. And it is true that summer in New England has seen drops in cases; heck, back in June of last year, the state was averaging less than a hundred cases per day, with a low of 31 on June 27, 2021. However, we keep seeing cases and hospitalizations go up week by week by week, not down. How the heck this qualifies as peaking is beyond me.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 50 active and 3,201 cumulative cases as of May 10. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,601.0 (5 less than yesterday - down 0.2%), 3,964% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 89.0% below the highest observed value of 23,197.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 7.89% (0 more than yesterday - up 4.1%), 2,464% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 71% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 638.0 (32 more than yesterday - up 5.3%), 659% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 6.0 (same as yesterday), 500% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 97% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,896 non-ICU beds, of which 7,611 (85.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 686 (7.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 599 (6.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,253 ICU beds, of which 939 (74.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 57 (4.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 257 (20.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,771 non-ICU beds, of which 7,283 (83.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 646 (7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 842 (9.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,234 ICU beds, of which 915 (74.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 56 (4.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 263 (21.3%) remained available.
One week ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,059.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 5.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 478.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.79%.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,727.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 3.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 397.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.87%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 551.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 7.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 460.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.32% (or 2.23% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
As of May 10, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3219 counties nationwide, 1291 counties (40.11% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 598 counties (18.58% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 946 counties (29.39% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 384 counties (11.93% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts have a Community Tranmission Level of High.
Barnstable County has 366.680 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 660.300 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 220.450 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has 236.560 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Essex County has 284.020 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 252.210 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampden County has 318.630 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 465.710 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Middlesex County has 370.540 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 245.640 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Norfolk County has 308.580 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 213.740 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 418.950 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 277.620 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
The underlying query for this data is available here. (Note: I have no idea why the CDC transmitted blank percent-positive values today.)
As of May 5, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3224 counties nationwide: 79 counties (2.45%) with High community level, 318 counties (9.86%) with Medium community level, and 2827 counties (87.69%) with Low community level. The CDC also reported the following COVID Community Levels for the 14 counties in Massachusetts: 7 counties with High community level (Barnstable, Berkshire, Franklin, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, Worcester), 6 counties with Medium community level (Dukes, Essex, Hampden, Hampshire, Nantucket, Plymouth), and 1 counties with Low community level (Bristol).
Barnstable County (population 212990) has 254.47 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 500.22 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 179.58 cases per 100k, 6.8 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 126.93 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Essex County (population 789034) has 225.34 cases per 100k, 6.8 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 218.01 cases per 100k, 12.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 266.53 cases per 100k, 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 363.12 cases per 100k, 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 305.33 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 166.68 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 254.25 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 167.88 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 368.82 cases per 100k, 10.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 237.53 cases per 100k, 12.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
The underlying query for this data is available here.
Total deaths down compared to yesterday, but yesterday's count covers three days, so it should have gone down. However, there was a big jump in newly reported confirmed cases; today's 3,996 are not only way up compared to yesterday, but are way up compared to last Wednesday's 2,985. Hospitalizations are also up again. The seven-day cases average is down a tad compared to yesterday but is way up compared to last Wednesday; the other seven-day averages are all up or even compared to yesterday, and way up compared to last week. All in all, this sucks.
The Boston Globe, at least, has finally noticed the trends of the last couple of months. But, fear not, they say! Experts think we may be nearing the peak:
In a troubling trend for a state trying to get back to normal, Massachusetts COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have been gradually rising for weeks. But experts say the spring wave could soon begin to subside without reaching levels similar to last winter's deadly Omicron surge.
"It's too early for me to be confident we are peaking but I do think we are getting close," said Matthew Fox, a professor of epidemiology and global health at the Boston University School of Public Health.
"I don't think this will be a very strong or prolonged wave because we have so much built-up immunity from immunization and prior infection," Fox said in an e-mail.
Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration and a Pfizer Inc. board member, said Wednesday on CNBC-TV, "There's clearly a wave of infection going through the Northeast right now" but "it seems to be peaking right now."
[ ... ]
But experts also think this wave won't continue forever. The closely-watched University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model predicts that COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts will peak in about two weeks, and hospitalizations will peak about two weeks after that.
Justin Lessler, a professor of epidemiology at the Gillings School of Global Public Health at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, said, "My intuition is things shouldn't go up too much further" in Massachusetts. "I certainly think it's reasonable to believe the wave is probably going to be cresting soon."
[ ... ]
Lessler is one of the coordinators of the COVID Scenario Modeling Hub, which brings together modeling teams and asks them to look into the future under different scenarios.
"The general trend" among the models, he said, "is that this wave would be smaller than the Omicron wave and, in most places, smaller than the Delta wave," but he also emphasized "there's a lot of uncertainty in the projections."
The wave of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations this spring so far has not been matched by an increase in deaths, he said, adding that he hoped that "we will not see much of a bump in deaths following on this bump in cases and hospitalizations - though we surely will see some."
(Note that this article was posted to the Globe's website before today's statewide numbers were released.)
I really want to believe that we're nearing the peak of this particular surge. And it is true that summer in New England has seen drops in cases; heck, back in June of last year, the state was averaging less than a hundred cases per day, with a low of 31 on June 27, 2021. However, we keep seeing cases and hospitalizations go up week by week by week, not down. How the heck this qualifies as peaking is beyond me.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 50 active and 3,201 cumulative cases as of May 10. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.