Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 18 newly reported confirmed deaths (12 more than yesterday - up 200.0%) for a total of 19,498 deaths, 2,040 newly reported confirmed cases (3,020 less than yesterday - down 59.7%) for a total of 1,732,319 cases, and 25,573 newly reported molecular tests (61,566 less than yesterday - down 70.7%).
Note that today's death data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 6.0 newly reported deaths per day (same as yesterday). Note that yesterday's case/test data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 1,686.7 newly reported cases per day and today's newly reported cases are 353 more than yesterday's values - up 20.9%. There were 29,046.3 newly reported molecular tests per day and today's newly reported tests are 3,473 less than yesterday's values - down 12.0%. The seven day average positivity rate is 6.81%, compared to 6.55% yesterday. The state also reported 4 newly reported probable deaths (3 more than yesterday - up 300.0%) for a total of 1,194 and 350 newly reported probable cases (107 less than yesterday - down 23.4%) for a total of 155,105. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 22 new deaths for a total of 20,692 and 2,390 new cases for a total of 1,887,424. There were 585 COVID-19 patients in hospital (75 less than yesterday - down 11.4%), 53 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (14 less than yesterday - down 20.9%) and 22 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (same as yesterday).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,761.0 (168 more than yesterday - up 10.5%), 2,651% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 93.0% below the highest observed value of 23,199.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 6.81% (0 more than yesterday - up 4.0%), 2,113% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 75% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 641.0 (35 less than yesterday - down 5.2%), 663% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 7.0 (1 less than yesterday - down 12.5%), 600% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 97% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,667 non-ICU beds, of which 7,364 (85.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 532 (6.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 771 (8.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,210 ICU beds, of which 898 (74.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 53 (4.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 259 (21.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,805 non-ICU beds, of which 7,546 (85.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 593 (7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 666 (7.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,242 ICU beds, of which 915 (73.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 67 (5.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 260 (20.9%) remained available.

One week ago (May 31), the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,760.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 4.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 745.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.66%.

Two weeks ago (May 24), the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,484.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 9.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 826.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.58%.

One year ago (June 7, 2021), the 7 day confirmed case average was 116.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 4.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 201.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.53% (or 0.75% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of June 6, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3220 counties nationwide, 2446 counties (75.96% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 391 counties (12.14% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 259 counties (8.04% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 124 counties (3.85% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts have a Community Tranmission Level of High.

Barnstable County has 201.890 cases per 100k, 9.55 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 296.130 cases per 100k, 8.6 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 165.420 cases per 100k, 7.66 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has 138.470 cases per 100k, 8.33 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Essex County has 193.530 cases per 100k, 7.74 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 183.810 cases per 100k, 6.53 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampden County has 239.940 cases per 100k, 8.13 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 213.270 cases per 100k, 5.45 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Middlesex County has 243.350 cases per 100k, 8.05 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 105.270 cases per 100k, 5.0 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Norfolk County has 215.490 cases per 100k, 8.98 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 156.750 cases per 100k, 7.46 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 206.490 cases per 100k, 7.74 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 174.810 cases per 100k, 6.56 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of June 2, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3224 counties nationwide: 241 counties (7.48%, representing 21.39% of the population) with High community level, 736 counties (22.83%, representing 34.54% of the population) with Medium community level, and 2247 counties (69.70%, representing 44.07% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported the following COVID Community Levels for the 14 counties in Massachusetts: 5 counties (representing 49.41% of the state's population) with High community level (Barnstable, Franklin, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk), 8 counties (representing 42.39% of the state's population) with Medium community level (Berkshire, Dukes, Essex, Hampden, Hampshire, Nantucket, Plymouth, Worcester), and 1 counties (representing 8.20% of the state's population) with Low community level (Bristol).

Barnstable County (population 212990) has 209.4 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 352.16 cases per 100k, 8.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 180.11 cases per 100k, 8.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 167.32 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Essex County (population 789034) has 212.41 cases per 100k, 8.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 202.34 cases per 100k, 12.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 253.87 cases per 100k, 6.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 228.81 cases per 100k, 6.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 260.22 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 114.05 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 214.21 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 174.4 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 224.9 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 188.53 cases per 100k, 12.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
The underlying query for this data is available here.

Overall, rather mixed results today. Day-over-day deaths up, but today covers three days of death reporting; the average of today's 18 deaths over those three days is exactly the same as yesterday's 6 deaths. Day-over-day cases are down, but yesterday covers three days of case/test reporting; today's 2,040 cases are substantially higher than the 1,687 cases/day resulting from averaging yesterday's count over three days. Hospitalizations are down compared to yesterday, as are the seven-day averages for deaths and hospitalizations; the seven-day averages for cases and percent-positive, unfortunately, are up. All in all, things are better than a couple of weeks ago, but we're still seeing over two thousand cases a day, and that just isn't good at all.

And it looks like some new Omicron subvariants are starting to rear their ugly heads locally:

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that two Omicron subvariants that experts have been watching closely now account for more than 7 percent of New England COVID-19 cases.

The agency estimates that the BA.4 subvariant accounts for 4.4 percent of cases, while the BA.5 subvariant accounts for 2.8 percent.

Nationally, BA.4 accounts for 5.4 percent of cases, while BA.5 accounts for an estimated 7.6 percent, according to the CDC estimates.

The subvariants BA.2.12.1 and BA.2 still account for many more cases both nationally and in New England. In New England, BA.2.12.1 accounts for 64.5 percent of cases and BA. 2 accounts for 28.3 percent of cases.

But experts say the new subvariants could end up elbowing out BA.2.12.1 and BA.2, just as those two variants elbowed out the BA.1 subvariant before them.

"BA.4 and 5 may end up becoming the dominant Omicron lineages in the coming weeks or months," Nathan Grubaugh, an associate professor of epidemiology at Yale University's School of Public Health, told The Wall Street Journal.

Dr. David Ho, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Columbia University in New York City, told CNN in an e-mail that the new variants are "a serious threat."
Research by Ho and colleagues suggests BA.4 and BA.5 are more likely to lead to breakthrough infections, even in people who've had COVID-19 before, CNN reports.

Without upgraded vaccines or boosters, Ho told CNN, many people will get sick in the coming weeks to months. But he also said the new wave of infections would not necessarily bring more severe disease or deaths.

The new subvariants were first identified in South Africa, where they drove a wave of cases despite the vast majority of the population having some antibodies from vaccination, previous infection, or both, according to a recent preprint study.

Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease modeler and public health researcher at Columbia University, told The New York Times last week that the findings aligned with a growing body of evidence that the coronavirus has become more adept at reinfecting people and that outbreaks are likely to continue.

"We have to admit the possibility that the number of waves that we've seen over the past few years, it may continue at that cadence," Shaman said.

Oh, joy. Hopefully the existing vaccines will still protect against severe illness and death.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 24 active and 3,498 cumulative cases as of June 5. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.