Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

It's the day after a long weekend, and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has apparently changed their minds again as to how they'll handle the data:

Note: May 31, 2022
As a reminder, case and testing data today (May 31) cover data reported Friday through Monday and therefore represent 4 days' worth of data. Deaths reported over the weekend will be included in the Wednesday data.

So the weekend death data isn't going to show up today, they say. Okay then. What do we get?

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 6 newly reported confirmed deaths (6 less than Friday - down 50.0%) for a total of 19,410 deaths, 7,029 newly reported confirmed cases (3,937 more than Friday - up 127.3%) for a total of 1,717,970 cases, and 94,631 newly reported molecular tests (45,892 more than Friday - up 94.2%).

Note that today's case/test data covers 4 days. Averaged over that period, there were 1,757.2 newly reported cases per day (1,335 less than Friday - down 43.2%), and 23,657.8 newly reported molecular tests per day (25,081 less than Friday - down 51.5%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 7.66%, compared to 8.34% Friday. The state also reported 14 newly reported probable deaths (13 more than Friday - up 1,300.0%) for a total of 1,184 and 730 newly reported probable cases (205 more than Friday - up 39.0%) for a total of 152,866. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 20 new deaths for a total of 20,594 and 7,759 new cases for a total of 1,870,836. There were 676 COVID-19 patients in hospital (119 less than Friday - down 15.0%), 80 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (1 more than Friday - up 1.3%) and 31 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than Friday - up 6.9%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,760.0 (438 less than Friday - down 19.9%), 2,650% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 93.0% below the highest observed value of 23,200.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 7.66% (0 less than Friday - down 8.2%), 2,388% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 72% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 745.0 (69 less than Friday - down 8.5%), 786% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 81% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 4.0 (7 less than Friday - down 63.6%), 300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,721 non-ICU beds, of which 7,064 (81.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 596 (6.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,061 (12.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,247 ICU beds, of which 818 (65.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 80 (6.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 349 (28.0%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,881 non-ICU beds, of which 7,513 (84.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 716 (8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 652 (7.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,236 ICU beds, of which 911 (73.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 79 (6.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 246 (19.9%) remained available.

One week ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,484.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 9.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 826.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.58%.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,071.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 748.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 9.12%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 171.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 5.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 249.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.66% (or 1.00% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of May 30, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3220 counties nationwide, 2180 counties (67.70% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 475 counties (14.75% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 394 counties (12.24% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 171 counties (5.31% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts have a Community Tranmission Level of High.

Barnstable County has 238.980 cases per 100k, 9.21 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 485.820 cases per 100k, 8.97 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 235.310 cases per 100k, 7.89 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has 253.870 cases per 100k, 6.71 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Essex County has 270.710 cases per 100k, 9.35 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 275.010 cases per 100k, 8.1 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampden County has 335.140 cases per 100k, 9.35 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 351.300 cases per 100k, 6.13 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Middlesex County has 336.100 cases per 100k, 8.54 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 122.820 cases per 100k, 7.66 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Norfolk County has 285.660 cases per 100k, 8.96 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 241.750 cases per 100k, 8.55 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 298.920 cases per 100k, 8.13 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 231.030 cases per 100k, 7.28 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of May 26, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3223 counties nationwide: 250 counties (7.76%, representing 23.10% of the population) with High community level, 668 counties (20.73%, representing 32.55% of the population) with Medium community level, and 2305 counties (71.52%, representing 44.35% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported the following COVID Community Levels for the 14 counties in Massachusetts: 11 counties (representing 90.73% of the state's population) with High community level (Barnstable, Berkshire, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 3 counties (representing 9.27% of the state's population) with Medium community level (Hampden, Hampshire, Nantucket).

Barnstable County (population 212990) has 271.84 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 550.65 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 9.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 271.4 cases per 100k, 10.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 305.79 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Essex County (population 789034) has 296.95 cases per 100k, 10.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 265.03 cases per 100k, 14.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 383.6 cases per 100k, 8.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 409.75 cases per 100k, 8.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 355.96 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 96.5 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 325.85 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 272.45 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 339.22 cases per 100k, 15.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 270.28 cases per 100k, 14.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
The underlying query for this data is available here.

Deaths are down compared to Friday's report. Raw cases are up a lot compared to Friday, but averaged over the four days of case/test data, the numbers are down a bunch. Hospitalizations are also down, which is encouraging; all four seven-day averages are also down, which is even more encouraging.

Much less encouraging: one in five US COVID survivors may develop long COVID:

One in 5 adult COVID survivors under age 65 in the United States has experienced at least one health condition that could be considered long COVID, according to a large new study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Among patients 65 and older, the number is even higher: 1 in 4.

In an indication of how seriously the federal health agency views the problem of long COVID, the authors of the study — members of the CDC's COVID-19 Emergency Response Team — recommended "routine assessment for post-COVID conditions among persons who survive COVID-19."

Long COVID is the term used to describe an array of symptoms that can last for months or longer after the initial coronavirus infection. The researchers identified post-COVID health problems in many different organ systems, including the heart, lungs and kidneys. Other issues involved blood circulation, the musculoskeletal system and the endocrine system; gastrointestinal conditions, neurological problems and psychiatric symptoms were also identified in the study.

In both age groups, COVID patients had twice the risk of uninfected people of developing respiratory symptoms and lung problems, including pulmonary embolism, the study found. Post-COVID patients ages 65 and older were at greater risk than the younger group of developing kidney failure, neurological conditions and most mental health conditions.

"It is sobering to see the results of this study again confirming the breadth of organ dysfunction and the scale of the problem," said Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, chief of research and development at the VA St. Louis Health Care System and a clinical epidemiologist at Washington University in St. Louis, who was not involved in the research.

The study evaluated electronic medical records for nearly 2 million people — comparing those who had been infected with the coronavirus with those who were not. The most common post-COVID conditions, regardless of age, were respiratory problems and musculoskeletal pain.

The risk of post-COVID patients ages 65 and older developing the 26 health conditions the study evaluated was between 20% and 120% greater than people who didn't get COVID. Those ages 18-64 had a 10% to 110% greater risk than uninfected people of developing 22 of the health conditions. But in that age group, COVID survivors were no more likely than uninfected people to develop most mental health conditions, substance use disorders or strokes and similar cerebrovascular conditions.

Al-Aly said the study results "can potentially translate into millions of people with new diabetes, heart disease, kidney disease, neurologic problems. These are lifelong conditions — certainly manageable, but not curable conditions."

Not at all encouraging: COVID death rates soared for older people during the winter Omicron wave:

Despite strong levels of vaccination among older people, COVID killed them at vastly higher rates during this winter's omicron wave than it did last year, preying on long delays since their last shots and the variant's ability to skirt immune defenses.

This winter's wave of deaths in older people belied the omicron variant's relative mildness. Almost as many Americans 65 and older died in four months of the omicron surge as they did in six months of the delta wave, even though the delta variant, for any one person, tended to cause more severe illness.

While overall per capita COVID death rates have fallen, older people still account for an overwhelming share of them.

"This is not simply a pandemic of the unvaccinated," said Andrew Stokes, an assistant professor in global health at Boston University who studies age patterns of COVID deaths. "There's still exceptionally high risk among older adults, even those with primary vaccine series."

COVID deaths, though always concentrated in older people, have in 2022 skewed toward older people more than they did at any point since vaccines became widely available.

That swing in the pandemic has intensified pressure on the Biden administration to protect older Americans, with health officials in recent weeks encouraging everyone 50 and older to get a second booster and introducing new models of distributing antiviral pills.

In much of the country, though, the booster campaign remains listless and disorganized, older people and their doctors said. Patients, many of whom struggle to drive or get online, have to maneuver through an often labyrinthine health care system to receive potentially lifesaving antivirals.

Nationwide COVID deaths in recent weeks have been near the lowest levels of the pandemic, below an average of 400 a day. But the mortality gap between older and younger people has grown: Middle-aged Americans, who suffered a large share of pandemic deaths last summer and fall, are now benefiting from new stores of immune protection in the population as COVID deaths once again cluster around older people.

[ ... ]

During the omicron wave, COVID death rates were once again dramatically higher for older Americans than younger ones, Stokes said. Older people also made up an overwhelming share of the excess deaths — the difference between the number of people who actually died and the number who would have been expected to die if the pandemic had never happened.

Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston, found in a recent study that excess deaths were more heavily concentrated in people 65 and older during the omicron wave than the delta surge. Overall, the study found, there were more excess deaths in Massachusetts during the first eight weeks of omicron than during the 23-week period when delta dominated.

As older people began dying at higher rates, COVID deaths also came to include higher proportions of vaccinated people. In March, about 40% of the people who died from COVID were vaccinated, according to an analysis of figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

I've been jumping on boosters as fast as they get authorized, so I suspect I'm not terribly likely to die if I do catch COVID. But those long-COVID odds are way too high for me to want to take the chance. Thus I'm going to keep maxing my personal precautions until/unless the local case rates go way down. Which hopefully will happen as spring turns into summer, at least around here.

Hopefully.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 33 active and 3,434 cumulative cases as of May 30. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.