Local COVID-19 updates
Apr. 4th, 2022 05:35 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting zero newly reported confirmed deaths (10 less than Friday) for a total of 19,006 deaths, 2,888 newly reported confirmed cases (1,446 more than Friday - up 100.3%) for a total of 1,568,724 cases, and 115,201 newly reported molecular tests (45,513 more than Friday - up 65.3%).
Note that today's case/test data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 962.7 newly reported cases per day (479 less than Friday - down 33.2%), and 38,400.3 newly reported molecular tests per day (31,288 less than Friday - down 44.9%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 2.40%, compared to 2.47% Friday. The state also reported 6 newly reported probable deaths (6 more than Friday) for a total of 1,115 and 208 newly reported probable cases (50 more than Friday - up 31.6%) for a total of 134,733. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 6 new deaths for a total of 20,121 and 3,096 new cases for a total of 1,703,457. There were 216 COVID-19 patients in hospital (8 less than Friday - down 3.6%), 31 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 less than Friday - down 6.1%) and 14 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than Friday - up 16.7%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 976.0 (117 more than Friday - up 13.6%), 1,425% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 96.0% below the highest observed value of 23,204.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.40% (0 less than Friday - down 3.0%), 679% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 91% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 218.0 (1 less than Friday - down 0.5%), 159% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 4.0 (same as Friday), 300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,939 non-ICU beds, of which 7,860 (87.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 185 (2.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 894 (10.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,261 ICU beds, of which 976 (77.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 31 (2.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 254 (20.1%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,941 non-ICU beds, of which 7,908 (88.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 191 (2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 842 (9.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,254 ICU beds, of which 952 (75.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 33 (2.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 269 (21.5%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 564.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 227.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.68%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,573.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 25.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 687.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.44% (or 4.05% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
As of April 3, 2022, the CDC reported that, of 3220 counties nationwide, 433 counties (13.45% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 484 counties (15.03% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 1535 counties (47.67% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 768 counties (23.85% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 6 counties have a Community Transmission Level of High (Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk), 7 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Hampden, Nantucket, Plymouth, Worcester), and 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate (Barnstable).
As of March 31, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3224 counties nationwide: 19 counties (0.59%) with High community level, 146 counties (4.53%) with Medium community level, and 3059 counties (94.88%) with Low community level. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts have a COVID Community Level of Low.
One definite bit of good news: today was the first time since July 13, 2021 that the state reported zero newly confirmed deaths. And today's newly reported cases - averaged over the three days of data, that is - are a bit lower than Friday's single-day number. (That said, weekend reporting has been ... uneven, shall we say? ... for most of the pandemic.) Hospitalizations are also down compared to Friday, and so are the seven-day averages for percent-positive and hospitalizations, so that's good, right?
Right?
I'd love to think so, but that seven-day cases average is up to 976.1. That's nearly double the average from two weeks ago, and almost two hundred cases per day above last Monday's report. And the way the state calculates that average[1] tends to undercount the most recent tests; the total number of newly reported cases between last Tuesday's report and today's is 7,936, which corresponds to an average of 1,133.7 cases per day. When cases are consistently trending upward this fast, I get really nervous.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 17 active and 2,889 cumulative cases as of April 2. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.
[1] The state calculates its seven-day cases average by the date the test was performed, not the date the results were reported to the state. Unfortuately, there can be delays in both getting the test read and then getting the results to the Commonwealth for inclusion in the data. Thus the counts for the most recent day or two tend to be low, and are revised upward in later reports; alas, that tends to (artificially) drag down the most recent days' numbers, since many of the tests administered are still "in flight", as it were. Today's raw data file, for example, shows only 62 new positive tests performed on April 3 and only 296 performed on April 2.
Note that today's case/test data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 962.7 newly reported cases per day (479 less than Friday - down 33.2%), and 38,400.3 newly reported molecular tests per day (31,288 less than Friday - down 44.9%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 2.40%, compared to 2.47% Friday. The state also reported 6 newly reported probable deaths (6 more than Friday) for a total of 1,115 and 208 newly reported probable cases (50 more than Friday - up 31.6%) for a total of 134,733. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 6 new deaths for a total of 20,121 and 3,096 new cases for a total of 1,703,457. There were 216 COVID-19 patients in hospital (8 less than Friday - down 3.6%), 31 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 less than Friday - down 6.1%) and 14 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than Friday - up 16.7%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 976.0 (117 more than Friday - up 13.6%), 1,425% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 96.0% below the highest observed value of 23,204.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.40% (0 less than Friday - down 3.0%), 679% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 91% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 218.0 (1 less than Friday - down 0.5%), 159% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 4.0 (same as Friday), 300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,939 non-ICU beds, of which 7,860 (87.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 185 (2.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 894 (10.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,261 ICU beds, of which 976 (77.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 31 (2.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 254 (20.1%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,941 non-ICU beds, of which 7,908 (88.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 191 (2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 842 (9.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,254 ICU beds, of which 952 (75.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 33 (2.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 269 (21.5%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 564.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 227.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.68%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,573.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 25.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 687.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.44% (or 4.05% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
As of April 3, 2022, the CDC reported that, of 3220 counties nationwide, 433 counties (13.45% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 484 counties (15.03% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 1535 counties (47.67% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 768 counties (23.85% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 6 counties have a Community Transmission Level of High (Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk), 7 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Hampden, Nantucket, Plymouth, Worcester), and 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate (Barnstable).
As of March 31, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3224 counties nationwide: 19 counties (0.59%) with High community level, 146 counties (4.53%) with Medium community level, and 3059 counties (94.88%) with Low community level. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts have a COVID Community Level of Low.
One definite bit of good news: today was the first time since July 13, 2021 that the state reported zero newly confirmed deaths. And today's newly reported cases - averaged over the three days of data, that is - are a bit lower than Friday's single-day number. (That said, weekend reporting has been ... uneven, shall we say? ... for most of the pandemic.) Hospitalizations are also down compared to Friday, and so are the seven-day averages for percent-positive and hospitalizations, so that's good, right?
Right?
I'd love to think so, but that seven-day cases average is up to 976.1. That's nearly double the average from two weeks ago, and almost two hundred cases per day above last Monday's report. And the way the state calculates that average[1] tends to undercount the most recent tests; the total number of newly reported cases between last Tuesday's report and today's is 7,936, which corresponds to an average of 1,133.7 cases per day. When cases are consistently trending upward this fast, I get really nervous.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 17 active and 2,889 cumulative cases as of April 2. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.
[1] The state calculates its seven-day cases average by the date the test was performed, not the date the results were reported to the state. Unfortuately, there can be delays in both getting the test read and then getting the results to the Commonwealth for inclusion in the data. Thus the counts for the most recent day or two tend to be low, and are revised upward in later reports; alas, that tends to (artificially) drag down the most recent days' numbers, since many of the tests administered are still "in flight", as it were. Today's raw data file, for example, shows only 62 new positive tests performed on April 3 and only 296 performed on April 2.