Local COVID-19 updates
Mar. 10th, 2022 05:27 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 22 newly reported confirmed deaths (6 less than yesterday - down 21.4%) for a total of 22,966 deaths, 802 newly reported confirmed cases (27 more than yesterday - up 3.5%) for a total of 1,547,487 cases, and 54,053 newly reported molecular tests (16,425 less than yesterday - down 23.3%).The seven day average positivity rate is 1.60%, compared to 1.61% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 2.28%; that rate was not reported yesterday. The state also reported 2 newly reported probable deaths (1 more than yesterday - up 100.0%) for a total of 766 and 85 newly reported probable cases (73 more than yesterday - up 608.3%) for a total of 132,434. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 24 new deaths for a total of 23,732 and 887 new cases for a total of 1,679,921. There were 290 COVID-19 patients in hospital (10 more than yesterday - up 3.6%), 40 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (6 less than yesterday - down 13.0%) and 19 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than yesterday - down 5.0%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 516.0 (21 less than yesterday - down 3.9%), 706% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 98.0% below the highest observed value of 23,188.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.60% (0 less than yesterday - down 0.9%), 419% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 94% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 313.0 (14 less than yesterday - down 4.3%), 268% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 92% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 19.0 (same as yesterday), 1,800% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 90% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,943 non-ICU beds, of which 7,803 (87.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 250 (2.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 890 (10.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,254 ICU beds, of which 966 (77.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 40 (3.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 248 (19.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,922 non-ICU beds, of which 7,821 (87.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 234 (3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 867 (9.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,270 ICU beds, of which 963 (75.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 46 (3.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 261 (20.6%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 835.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 32.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 635.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.21% (or 3.49% excluding higher education).
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,002.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 30.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 704.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.77% (or 3.01% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 2,734 total cases, with a two-week case count of 22 cases, a daily incidence rate of 6.6 which is lower than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of green (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 92,027 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,415 and a two-week positive test count of 27, for a percent-positive rate of 1.91 which is higher than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 1,546,685 total cases, with a two-week case count of 11,176 cases, a daily incidence rate of 11.5 which is lower than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 41,400,547 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 697,990 and a two-week positive test count of 12,901, for a percent-positive rate of 1.85 which is lower than last week.
As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 160 would be coded gray (compared to 127 last week), 121 would be coded green (compared to 72 last week), and 67 would be coded yellow (compared to 136 last week).The remaining 3 towns would be coded red (compared to 16 last week): Athol, Tyngsborough, and Ware.
2 cities/towns would be newly coded red this week (Tyngsborough, and Ware) and 15 cities/towns would no longer be coded red this week (Acushnet, Adams, Barnstable, Bellingham, Brewster, Dennis, Great Barrington, Hanover, Lakeville, Ludlow, New Bedford, Palmer, Pittsfield, Southborough, and Sturbridge).
Of the 10 towns nearby (including my own town), 2 are coded gray (Boxborough, and Stow), 5 are coded green (Acton, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Concord, and Maynard), 3 are coded yellow (Littleton, Sudbury, and Westford), and none are coded red.
Of the 10 towns near my church, 5 are coded gray (Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, and Stow), 4 are coded green (Acton, Hudson, Marlborough, and Maynard), one is coded yellow (Sudbury), and none are coded red.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Good to see newly reported deaths down, but not good to see newly reported cases up for the second day in a row. Even less good to see hospitalizations up for the first time since March 2. The seven-day averages are all down, but if we're actually starting to see upticks in cases again, they won't pick up on them for another couple of days, given the delays built into their calculations.
The weekly city/town data is in, and is pretty uniformly good news, with the vast majority (281) of the 351 communities in the lowest risk categories and only three in the highest (assuming the state could actually be arsed to do that calculation themselves any more). However, that data is based on a two-week trailing average, before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention decided to roll out their new "community level" calculation that magically made the need for masking go away.
Meanwhile, the state is about to change their definition of what dying from COVID means, which will probably knock several thousand deaths off the state's official numbers:
At least this is in service of being consistent with most of the rest of the country. It won't matter to the dead themselves, of course.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 13 active and 2,795 cumulative cases as of March 7, and has not been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 516.0 (21 less than yesterday - down 3.9%), 706% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 98.0% below the highest observed value of 23,188.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.60% (0 less than yesterday - down 0.9%), 419% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 94% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 313.0 (14 less than yesterday - down 4.3%), 268% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 92% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 19.0 (same as yesterday), 1,800% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 90% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,943 non-ICU beds, of which 7,803 (87.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 250 (2.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 890 (10.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,254 ICU beds, of which 966 (77.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 40 (3.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 248 (19.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,922 non-ICU beds, of which 7,821 (87.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 234 (3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 867 (9.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,270 ICU beds, of which 963 (75.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 46 (3.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 261 (20.6%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 835.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 32.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 635.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.21% (or 3.49% excluding higher education).
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,002.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 30.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 704.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.77% (or 3.01% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 2,734 total cases, with a two-week case count of 22 cases, a daily incidence rate of 6.6 which is lower than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of green (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 92,027 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,415 and a two-week positive test count of 27, for a percent-positive rate of 1.91 which is higher than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 1,546,685 total cases, with a two-week case count of 11,176 cases, a daily incidence rate of 11.5 which is lower than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 41,400,547 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 697,990 and a two-week positive test count of 12,901, for a percent-positive rate of 1.85 which is lower than last week.
As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 160 would be coded gray (compared to 127 last week), 121 would be coded green (compared to 72 last week), and 67 would be coded yellow (compared to 136 last week).The remaining 3 towns would be coded red (compared to 16 last week): Athol, Tyngsborough, and Ware.
2 cities/towns would be newly coded red this week (Tyngsborough, and Ware) and 15 cities/towns would no longer be coded red this week (Acushnet, Adams, Barnstable, Bellingham, Brewster, Dennis, Great Barrington, Hanover, Lakeville, Ludlow, New Bedford, Palmer, Pittsfield, Southborough, and Sturbridge).
Of the 10 towns nearby (including my own town), 2 are coded gray (Boxborough, and Stow), 5 are coded green (Acton, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Concord, and Maynard), 3 are coded yellow (Littleton, Sudbury, and Westford), and none are coded red.
Of the 10 towns near my church, 5 are coded gray (Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, and Stow), 4 are coded green (Acton, Hudson, Marlborough, and Maynard), one is coded yellow (Sudbury), and none are coded red.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Good to see newly reported deaths down, but not good to see newly reported cases up for the second day in a row. Even less good to see hospitalizations up for the first time since March 2. The seven-day averages are all down, but if we're actually starting to see upticks in cases again, they won't pick up on them for another couple of days, given the delays built into their calculations.
The weekly city/town data is in, and is pretty uniformly good news, with the vast majority (281) of the 351 communities in the lowest risk categories and only three in the highest (assuming the state could actually be arsed to do that calculation themselves any more). However, that data is based on a two-week trailing average, before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention decided to roll out their new "community level" calculation that magically made the need for masking go away.
Meanwhile, the state is about to change their definition of what dying from COVID means, which will probably knock several thousand deaths off the state's official numbers:
The official count of COVID-19 deaths in Massachusetts will decline by about 3,700 under a new surveillance system that state health leaders say more accurately captures the true toll from the virus.
"We think this is an absolutely critical step in improving our understanding of who COVID has impacted most significantly during the pandemic," Dr. Catherine Brown, the state's epidemiologist, said at a media briefing.
Currently, the state's reported confirmed and probable deaths total about 23,700. Under the new method, that could drop to about 20,000. But Brown said a team at the state's health department is still crunching the numbers and would release them Monday.
The new system will narrow the state's definition of who died of COVID. Currently, Massachusetts records anyone who died within 60 days of a COVID diagnosis as having died from COVID, unless it is clear the person died from another cause, such as a traumatic accident.
Under the new system, recommended by the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, COVID deaths will now be those that occur within 30 days of a diagnosis. The council helps establish uniform methods for states to track and record various diseases.
This "will also improve our ability to compare our data with data from other jurisdictions and other states," Brown said. She said most, but not all, states have adopted this new method.
Some COVID patients are hospitalized for weeks past the 30-day window, raising potential concerns they may be missed in the new system. But Brown said her team's analysis indicates that is not the case.
"People who ... are seriously ill and hospitalized for longer and end up dying after that 30 days have almost invariably had COVID listed on their death certificate and so they end up being counted under another method," she said.
The state's new method allows for COVID deaths to be counted beyond the 30 days if COVID or an "equivalent term" is listed on the death certificate, or if investigators, such as a medical examiner, concludes the death was COVID related.
At least this is in service of being consistent with most of the rest of the country. It won't matter to the dead themselves, of course.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 13 active and 2,795 cumulative cases as of March 7, and has not been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.