Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 53 newly reported confirmed deaths (33 more than yesterday - up 165.0%) for a total of 16,176 deaths, 1,413 newly reported confirmed cases (407 more than yesterday - up 40.5%) for a total of 562,394 cases, and 93,800 newly reported molecular tests (34,722 more than yesterday - up 58.8%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.77%, compared to 1.74% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.01%, compared to 2.97% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 26,135 (501 less than yesterday - down 1.9%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 333 and 244 newly reported probable cases (13 less than yesterday - down 5.1%) for a total of 32,870. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 53 new deaths for a total of 16,509 and 1,657 new cases for a total of 595,264. There were 689 COVID-19 patients in hospital (15 less than yesterday - down 2.1%), 183 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 less than yesterday - down 1.1%) and 121 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 more than yesterday - up 3.4%).

Today being Wednesday, the weekly data points were also updated. The average age of hospitalized patients over the past week is 64 (5 less than last week - down 7.2%) while the average age of deaths over the last two weeks is 77 (same as last week). The fourteen-day average test turnaround time (from sample draw to DPH report) is 1.55 (compared to 1.41 last week). The average daily incidence per 100k population over the last 14 days is 20.3 (compared to 21.3 last week).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,002.0 (4 less than yesterday - down 0.4%), 538% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 84.0% below the highest observed value of 6,242.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.77% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.6%), 129% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 94% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 704.0 (10 less than yesterday - down 1.4%), 354% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 82% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 30.0 (same as yesterday), 172% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 83% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,135 non-ICU beds, of which 7,130 (78.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 506 (5.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,499 (16.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,425 ICU beds, of which 863 (60.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 183 (12.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 379 (26.6%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,090 non-ICU beds, of which 6,762 (74.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 519 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,809 (19.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,424 ICU beds, of which 847 (59.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 185 (13.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 392 (27.5%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,157.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 38.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 956.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.89% (or 3.09% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Definitely not good news day-to-day, as deaths and cases are both up by a lot, and the seven-day average positivity rate ticked up slightly. The other seven-day averages (cases, deaths and hospitalizations) are all level or down very slightly. Those longer-term averages are all still improvements over two weeks ago - but, again, not by huge amounts, and still way above the lowest observed values from last summer.

The fourteen-day average daily incidence is also down slightly, which is good; but it's still over twenty new cases per 100k population, which is not good. In fact, the latest figures at https://www.covidactnow.org/?s=1653592 show Massachusetts as having the seventh highest daily incidence rate in the country, behind New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, South Carolina, the District of Columbia, and Florida.

On the vaccination front, Governor Charlie Baker is trying again to come up with a signup process that's not a complete clusterfuck; starting Friday, there will be a preregistration system for mass vaccination sites:

Governor Charlie Baker on Wednesday unveiled a new online preregistration tool to make it easier to book a COVID-19 vaccine appointment at seven mass vaccination sites, a bid to ease the mounting frustration over the frenzied competition to secure a shot.

The new system, which will go into effect on Friday, could solve what has become the most glaring problem in the state's vaccine roll-out: a vexing online user experience that has forced thousands to compete over a limited number of appointments. Going forward, users will be able to go online and enter their information, and later be alerted when it is their turn to book a vaccine.

"Creating a pre-registration system that makes it possible for people to register and then know where they are in the queue . . . takes some of the heat and some of the sting, I think, out of what the supply shortage does generally to people here in the Commonwealth," Baker said at a press conference.

The state has been under pressure for weeks from residents, state lawmakers, and most of the Massachusetts congressional delegation to simplify a process that requires residents to wait, sometimes for hours at a time, to sign up for scarce appointments -- often with no success as spots fill up. The critics noted that several other states already use preregistrations to streamline sign-ups.

Some residents said they understood that the limited supply meant it may take weeks before they would get a booking, but simply wanted a way to ensure they could easily be scheduled when it was their turn.

"Nobody would be upset . . . if you could just log in, register, and put your name on a waiting list and have them contact you when the vaccine is available," said Maureen Gendrolius, a 71-year-old Plymouth resident who finally booked an appointment recently after weeks of trying. "It's the way the state handled it — or mishandled it."

These problems have hampered the vaccine process even as Massachusetts has risen in state rankings for administered doses, especially among larger states. Weeks after the state opened the door to all senior citizens and people with at least two chronic health conditions, many are still struggling to schedule an appointment. That competition will only grow on Thursday as teachers and other educators become eligible for the vaccine.

As of Wednesday, more than 1.5 million people in Massachusetts have received at least a first dose of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines, and about half have gone on to receive their second and final shot. Another 33,000 people have received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which requires only one injection.

The new system could also help the state prepare for a much bigger challenge as it eyes the roll-out of the vaccine this spring to millions — first essential workers such as food service and transit workers, and then the general public.

[ ... ]

he state expects to list about 40,000 new appointments at the mass vaccination sites on Thursday, but those will be listed on the existing website. Then, starting sometime on Friday morning, all appointments at the mass vaccination sites will be booked through the preregistration site, which will be available at https://mass.gov/COVIDvaccine.

People will be able to sign up by phone or online on behalf of somebody else, to aid those who struggle with internet access.

The current Vaxfinder website will still be available to find appointments at other sites, such as the "regional collaborative" locations operating in many counties. Other locations beyond the mass vaccination sites may eventually be added to the preregistration site, officials said.

The preregistration system is effectively a queue, keeping individuals' place in line until it is their turn to sign up. The state promises that residents will get weekly updates by text, email, or phone about their place in line, as well as the opportunity to opt out if they have obtained a vaccination elsewhere. Once their turn has come, residents will have 24 hours to confirm an appointment before they are returned to the queue.

[ ... ]

The new system is being designed by Google, and Baker said it should hold up against what is certain to be heavy demand as millions wait to become eligible for their shots in coming weeks. The state's vaccine booking website — run by private contractors — spectacularly collapsed last month the same day that people aged 65 to 74 and people with multiple underlying conditions became eligible.

"Google has set up pre-registration sites in a number of other states," Baker said. "They've pressure tested what we have experienced here in Massachusetts with what they've experienced in other states, and they're pretty confident that we won't have any issues."

[ ... ]

"This is an encouraging development, but nearly three months after the first vaccines arrived in Massachusetts, many of us are asking why this didn't come sooner," said state Senator Eric Lesser, a Longmeadow Democrat who has emphasized the poor user experience in his criticism of the administration.

Clearly Baker is still all in on his hire-shiny-consultants-to-run-public-health concept, rather than, say, using the existing public health infrastructure. Considering how badly the first vaccine website rollout worked, not to mention the repeated issues with the various daily data dashboards over the past year, I'm not terribly filled with confidence.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 18 active and 791 cumulative cases as of March 9. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 5PM on February 26, 2021 reported 766 cumulative cases with 27 individuals in isolation, 707 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.

Comments

[edschweppe]

Something I just noticed: the Massachusetts COVID-19 Travel Order has been updated; now anyone who is fully vaccinated (two weeks after the only Johnson & Johnson shot or the second Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna shot) is exempt from the quarantine/test requirements for entering the state. Daytrips out of state may well be in the cards by mid-April ...

[edschweppe]

Oh, and it was one year ago that Governor Baker first declared a state of emergency:

Governor Charlie Baker declared a state of emergency for Massachusetts on Tuesday, as the number of Covid-19 cases in the state more than doubled to 92 and the first cases with no known source broke out in Berkshire County.

Seeking to slow the spread of the virus, Baker announced travel restrictions on all 42,000 employees of the state's executive branch, banning out-of-state work-related travel and in-person conferences and seminars. He urged other large employers to do the same.

"I would have to say that the risk has increased," Baker said at a State House news conference. "Responding to this evolving health threat requires everyone to be vigilant and everyone to be part of this effort."

The Berkshire cases mark a turning point in the outbreak in Massachusetts, because they indicate the virus may be spreading freely in the community. Previously, all the infected people in the state had either traveled abroad or had contact with an infected person, the majority at a conference of Biogen employees.

"Person-to-person spread of the virus is beginning to occur among individuals without identifiable risk factors," said Public Health Commissioner Monica Bharel, saying the focus now shifts from containing the virus's spread to mitigating it. A health department expert has been dispatched to help with the Berkshire County outbreak, she said. There are seven Covid-19 cases in the county but it was unclear Tuesday how many were of unknown origin.

Yeah, there was just a bit of community spread going on. </sarcasm>