Local COVID-19 updates
Feb. 28th, 2022 05:53 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 31 newly reported confirmed deaths (2 more than Friday - up 6.9%) for a total of 22,686 deaths, 1,632 newly reported confirmed cases (303 more than Friday - up 22.8%) for a total of 1,539,526 cases, and 97,477 newly reported molecular tests (17,691 more than Friday - up 22.2%).
Note that today's case/test data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 544.0 newly reported cases per day (785 less than Friday - down 59.1%), and 32,492.3 newly reported molecular tests per day (47,294 less than Friday - down 59.3%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 1.89%, compared to 2.13% Friday. The state also reported 23 newly reported probable deaths (22 more than Friday - up 2,200.0%) for a total of 738 and 66 newly reported probable cases (43 more than Friday - up 187.0%) for a total of 131,766. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 54 new deaths for a total of 23,424 and 1,698 new cases for a total of 1,671,292. There were 445 COVID-19 patients in hospital (38 less than Friday - down 7.9%), 83 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (10 less than Friday - down 10.8%) and 51 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than Friday - down 1.9%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 704.0 (83 less than Friday - down 10.5%), 1,000% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 97.0% below the highest observed value of 23,187.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.89% (0 less than Friday - down 11.1%), 515% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 564.0 (34 less than Friday - down 5.7%), 563% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 26.0 (5 less than Friday - down 16.1%), 2,500% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,880 non-ICU beds, of which 7,481 (84.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 362 (4.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,037 (11.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,254 ICU beds, of which 887 (70.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 83 (6.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 284 (22.6%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,979 non-ICU beds, of which 7,686 (85.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 390 (4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 903 (10.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,246 ICU beds, of which 901 (72.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 93 (7.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 252 (20.2%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,589.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 46.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,254.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.00%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,232.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 37.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 847.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.73% (or 2.88% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Deaths up slightly from Friday, which isn't good. Cases also up from Friday - but the state has been rolling three days of case and testing data into the Monday dashboard. Today's 1,632 newly reported cases is the lowest multiple-day report since 1,243 cases were reported on July 26, 2021. Hospitalizations are down again; today's report of 445 patients in hospital with COVID is the lowest since 439 were reported on August 19, 2021. The four seven-day averages also all ticked down; the percent-positive average in particular is down to 1.89%, the first time below two percent since July 30, 2021.
Overall, this looks like good news. On the other hand, it's a Monday report, and those have been particularly screwy ever since the state gave up reporting on the weekend. (Reports to the state have been irregular on weekends for this entire pandemic, so anything from the state that includes those days inherits the irregularity.)
But the big recent drops in cases, hospitalizations and deaths don't mean the pandemic is over, by any stretch of the imagination:
I'm still figuring out my own reaction to the new CDC "community level" guidelines. Their county-level report shows every single county in Massachusetts having high or substantial "community transmission" as of February 24 (the last time the data was updated), yet at the same time having low or medium "community level". Under the old masking guidelines, everyone in the state should be masking up in indoor public spaces; under the new guidelines, nobody in the state needs to mask up (although the immunocompromised should talk to their doctors). It's magic!
(I'm also trying to see if there's an API out there that I could use to pull their data automatically. There is a "download" button on the county-level page, but I'm hoping for something that I don't have to manually click to use.)
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 11 active and 2,775 cumulative cases as of February 27. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.
Note that today's case/test data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 544.0 newly reported cases per day (785 less than Friday - down 59.1%), and 32,492.3 newly reported molecular tests per day (47,294 less than Friday - down 59.3%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 1.89%, compared to 2.13% Friday. The state also reported 23 newly reported probable deaths (22 more than Friday - up 2,200.0%) for a total of 738 and 66 newly reported probable cases (43 more than Friday - up 187.0%) for a total of 131,766. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 54 new deaths for a total of 23,424 and 1,698 new cases for a total of 1,671,292. There were 445 COVID-19 patients in hospital (38 less than Friday - down 7.9%), 83 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (10 less than Friday - down 10.8%) and 51 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than Friday - down 1.9%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 704.0 (83 less than Friday - down 10.5%), 1,000% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 97.0% below the highest observed value of 23,187.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.89% (0 less than Friday - down 11.1%), 515% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 564.0 (34 less than Friday - down 5.7%), 563% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 26.0 (5 less than Friday - down 16.1%), 2,500% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,880 non-ICU beds, of which 7,481 (84.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 362 (4.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,037 (11.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,254 ICU beds, of which 887 (70.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 83 (6.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 284 (22.6%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,979 non-ICU beds, of which 7,686 (85.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 390 (4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 903 (10.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,246 ICU beds, of which 901 (72.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 93 (7.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 252 (20.2%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,589.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 46.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,254.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.00%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,232.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 37.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 847.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.73% (or 2.88% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Deaths up slightly from Friday, which isn't good. Cases also up from Friday - but the state has been rolling three days of case and testing data into the Monday dashboard. Today's 1,632 newly reported cases is the lowest multiple-day report since 1,243 cases were reported on July 26, 2021. Hospitalizations are down again; today's report of 445 patients in hospital with COVID is the lowest since 439 were reported on August 19, 2021. The four seven-day averages also all ticked down; the percent-positive average in particular is down to 1.89%, the first time below two percent since July 30, 2021.
Overall, this looks like good news. On the other hand, it's a Monday report, and those have been particularly screwy ever since the state gave up reporting on the weekend. (Reports to the state have been irregular on weekends for this entire pandemic, so anything from the state that includes those days inherits the irregularity.)
But the big recent drops in cases, hospitalizations and deaths don't mean the pandemic is over, by any stretch of the imagination:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shifted its guidelines Friday to say that fewer communities were in need of coronavirus restrictions such as masks and social distancing, a change that coincided with moves by several states to drop such protections.
But the rush to return to normality in light of an improving national outlook for coronavirus cases has many public health experts concerned that the end of the omicron surge is incorrectly being conflated with the end of the pandemic.
“Things are improving, but we still aren’t at a point where we’re getting out in front of this,” said Dr. Lynn R. Goldman, dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University.
Goldman said the new CDC guidance was comparable to an “off-ramp” from the pandemic, even though new variants could still emerge and the country’s health system, and public, is not equipped for another surge in cases.
The daily average number of coronavirus cases has dropped 63% , and the average number of hospitalizations has dropped 44% in the United States over the past 14 days, according to a New York Times database, continuing a steady trend of declining coronavirus numbers nationally. The daily average number of deaths is still roughly 1,900 — a 23% drop over the past two weeks — but that is expected to fall further soon because of the lag between hospitalization and death rates.
The new CDC guidelines encourage counties to not just use case rates to calculate the risk for communities but also include hospitalization figures. This change suggests that 70% of Americans could stop wearing masks, and stop social distancing or avoiding crowded indoor spaces.
Several experts said the new CDC guidelines were appropriate, but many have expressed concern that the recommendations do not account for the unknowns of the pandemic.
Dr. Gerald E. Harmon, president of the American Medical Association, said in a statement in response to the new recommendations that he would continue to wear a mask “in most indoor public settings,” and he urged all Americans to do the same. “We must remain adaptable and vigilant in confronting this unpredictable virus,” Harmon said.
[ ... ]
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the CDC’s director, was asked in a call with reporters Friday about the timing of the new guidance and how it related to decisions by states to drop restrictions.
She said that the agency had been planning to shift the metric to hospitalizations for some time and that many state policies “will coincide with exactly what we are recommending.”
Dr. Esther Choo, an emergency medicine physician at the Oregon Health and Science University, said on Twitter that making hospitalizations the sole metric “means allowing a high burden of disease & having a delayed response that is slow to have impact on hospitalizations and death.”
I'm still figuring out my own reaction to the new CDC "community level" guidelines. Their county-level report shows every single county in Massachusetts having high or substantial "community transmission" as of February 24 (the last time the data was updated), yet at the same time having low or medium "community level". Under the old masking guidelines, everyone in the state should be masking up in indoor public spaces; under the new guidelines, nobody in the state needs to mask up (although the immunocompromised should talk to their doctors). It's magic!
(I'm also trying to see if there's an API out there that I could use to pull their data automatically. There is a "download" button on the county-level page, but I'm hoping for something that I don't have to manually click to use.)
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 11 active and 2,775 cumulative cases as of February 27. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.