Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 3 newly reported confirmed deaths (5 less than yesterday - down 62.5%) for a total of 17,714 deaths, 844 newly reported confirmed cases (102 more than yesterday - up 13.7%) for a total of 672,488 cases, and 38,616 newly reported molecular tests (2,351 less than yesterday - down 5.7%).The seven day average positivity rate is 2.07%, compared to 1.92% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 368 and 87 newly reported probable cases (76 less than yesterday - down 46.6%) for a total of 47,292. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 3 new deaths for a total of 18,082 and 931 new cases for a total of 719,780. There were 197 COVID-19 patients in hospital (21 more than yesterday - up 11.9%), 40 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (1 more than yesterday - up 2.6%) and 21 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 more than yesterday - up 23.5%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 467.0 (39 more than yesterday - up 9.1%), 629% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 93.0% below the highest observed value of 6,235.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.07% (0 more than yesterday - up 8.1%), 575% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 151.0 (10 more than yesterday - up 7.1%), 77% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 97% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 4.0 (same as yesterday), 300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/12/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,131 non-ICU beds, of which 8,022 (87.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 157 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 952 (10.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,346 ICU beds, of which 963 (71.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 40 (3.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 343 (25.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,082 non-ICU beds, of which 8,043 (88.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 137 (2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 902 (9.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,339 ICU beds, of which 976 (72.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 39 (2.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 324 (24.2%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 153.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 98.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.87%.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

An at-best-mixed bag of day-to-day changes. Newly reported deaths are down, but newly reported cases are up a bunch while newly reported tests are down a bit. Hospitalizations are also up a bunch, and all the seven-day averages went up again. Today's 844 newly reported cases are the highest single-day total since 881 cases were reported on May 7, while the seven-day percent-positivity average rose above 2.0% for the first time since April 23.

Governor Charlie Baker's adminstration is sort of doing something about this latest surge - a new mask advisory:

The Baker administration on Friday released updated guidance on wearing masks following new recommendations this week from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the rise of the highly transmissible Delta variant, with Governor Charlie Baker calling the guidance "simpler" than the CDC recommendations even as he urged the federal government to speed up full FDA approval of the vaccines.

The state now recommends that fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors "if you have a weakened immune system, or if you are at increased risk for severe disease because of your age or an underlying medical condition, or if someone in your household has a weakened immune system, is at increased risk for severe disease, or is unvaccinated," the department said in a statement.

Those who are unsure if they qualify as at "increased risk" for severe COVID-19 should speak with their doctors, the statement said. It also directs people to consult a list of conditions identified by the CDC that can increase risk for the virus.

The guidance is a departure from the CDC's advice, which recommended masks based on community transmission rates rather than specific groups of people, and stops short of a mandate. On Tuesday, the CDC recommended that vaccinated people return to wearing masks indoors in parts of the country that are experiencing "substantial" or "high" COVID-19 transmission. In Massachusetts, that applies to five counties: Barnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Nantucket, and Suffolk.

[ ... ]

During an event to encourage youth vaccination in Roxbury Friday, Baker defended his administration's decision to issue statewide recommendations instead of repeating the CDC's county-specific approach, saying he think it is "simpler" and "more straightforward."

"Part of the reason why we believe we should do statewide guidance is, what if you live in one county, work in another?" Baker said. "What if you work in one county, live in another? What if you decide to go [on] vacation or out to dinner in one county and live in another?"

Baker added that state officials are working to protect those "who have the most to lose here" like the elderly, and others who are at higher risk of serious disease from COVID-19.

[ ... ]

The Massachusetts Medical Society went a step further than Baker's new guidance. Its physicians "strongly recommend" that people wear masks in indoor, public places when social distancing isn't possible, regardless of vaccination status, Dr. Carole E. Allen, the society's president, said in a statement.

"Masking is proven to reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and slowing the spread of the virus is critical, as the Delta variant drives a concerning uptick in key public health metrics across Massachusetts and the nation," the statement said.

On the other hand, the Boston Globe's Editorial Board wants to see more forceful leadership from Governor Baker:

Everyone — no matter what their age, gender, politics, or religious preference — is sick of masks.

However, to stop more people from getting sick from the fast-spreading Delta variant of COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is now recommending that fully vaccinated Americans should wear a mask indoors if they live in a place with "substantial" or "high" coronavirus transmission — a category that includes some, but not all, of Massachusetts. The CDC also recommends universal indoor masking for all teachers, staff, students, and visitors to schools, regardless of vaccination status.

In what was supposed to be a mask-free summer (except on public transit and a few other specific settings), this policy reversal is a real bummer. Across the country, there's resistance, especially from Republicans who continue to play dangerous partisan politics with the life-and-death consequences of a pandemic. Massachusetts is not immune from such partisan gamesmanship either. In a campaign e-mail, Republican Geoff Diehl, who recently announced he's running for governor, called on Governor Charlie Baker, a fellow Republican and potential primary opponent, to reject the CDC's recent announcement regarding mask use — and, by the way, to please donate to his campaign to assist in "spreading our message," not to mention assistance in spreading the virus.

Baker, who has not yet announced whether he plans to run for a third term, has been resisting calls to reinstate mask requirements. The Department of Public Health did update its guidance to the public on Friday, advising vaccinated people with certain risk factors to wear masks, but stopped short of echoing the CDC; a separate advisory for schools recommended that unvaccinated students and staff wear masks, but did not go as far as the CDC and extend the recommendation to those who have been vaccinated. While there's no direct evidence Baker's reticence is rooted in politics, let's just say we miss the governor who led the fight against COVID-19 in Massachusetts in 2020. There were twists and turns to his approach, but over the past year, Baker established himself as a leader who followed the science and the CDC.
In March 2020, Baker stepped up quickly to the COVID-19 challenge by declaring a state of emergency. From that flowed emergency orders regarding mask-wearing, venue capacity limits, travel restrictions, and other restrictions, all connected to CDC guidance and daily tracking data on the status of the pandemic. The state of emergency was terminated on June 15, 2021, and for a while we could all rejoice in mask-free freedom.

Today, no one wants to be the bad guy who reimposes mask mandates. So it's understandable for Baker to lean on statistics about the relatively high rate of vaccination in Massachusetts compared with other states and the lower rates of infection than many other locations in the country.

However, cases are rising here too, with clusters in some communities such as Provincetown. Earlier this week, the CDC included five Eastern Massachusetts counties among the places where people, including those who have been vaccinated, should wear masks in indoor public spaces. It makes sense; data from the recent outbreak on the Cape show that, of the people who tested positive for COVID-19, vaccinated people had about the same levels of the virus as vaccinated people, which means they are probably spreading the disease when unmasked, even without symptoms.

But for now, Baker seems determined to leave mask-wearing decisions to local businesses and government officials. That's too bad, because the governor has the leadership credibility to get Massachusetts in the right frame of mind when it comes to masking and to create consistency across the state's counties amid summertime travel. No, no one wants to mask up again, but a call from Baker to do it statewide would help stop the spread. Massachusetts citizens are smart enough to understand that it doesn't take much for the Delta variant that has reached substantial or high transmission rates in Suffolk County to get to Middlesex or Norfolk counties. And it's worth emphasizing that however annoying, masks are a trifling inconvenience compared with shutdowns and quarantines.

Meanwhile, Baker should definitely call for masks in schools, as the Massachusetts Teachers Association and a group of lawmakers — all Democrats — have asked him to do. Again, this shouldn't be about partisan politics. It should be about doing what's best for all the people of Massachusetts, especially for kids. Previously, Baker had no problem doing that. Citing data that supported the move, last February, over union objections, he unveiled a plan that forced local school districts to return to in-person, five-day-a-week learning for elementary school students. Now the CDC and the American Academy of Pediatrics are recommending masks in schools for everyone.

Once again, Baker should lead by following the science and tell Massachusetts to mask up.

Baker should show some leadership here. I'm not going to hold my breath that he will, though.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 6 active and 1,000 cumulative cases as of July 30. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.

Comments

[edschweppe]

Here is the text of the current advisory:

On July 27, 2021, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued updated guidance regarding the use of face coverings and cloth masks by individuals who are fully vaccinated for COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective and every individual who is eligible and either works, studies or resides in Massachusetts is advised to get vaccinated.

The updated CDC guidance continues to state that individuals who are fully vaccinated may, as a general matter, resume many of the activities that they engaged in prior to the pandemic without wearing a mask or staying 6 feet apart, except where otherwise required by federal, state, or local
laws, rules or regulations. In response to the recent spread of the Delta variant, however, the CDC’s updated guidance does recommend that even fully vaccinated persons wear masks or face coverings when indoors if other risk factors are present.

In light of the information provided by the CDC, and in order to maximize protection of vulnerable individuals from the Delta variant, the Department of Public Health now advises that a fully vaccinated person should wear a mask or face covering when in doors (and not in your own home) if you have a weakened immune system, or if you are at increased risk for severe disease because of your age or an underlying medical condition, or if someone in your household has a weakened immune system, is at increased risk for severe disease, or is an unvaccinated adult.

Your primary care provider can advise you whether you are at increased risk. Information from the CDC on the conditions that may put you at increased risk can be found here: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html.

An individual is fully vaccinated two weeks after their second dose in a two-dose series, such as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or two weeks after a single-dose vaccine, such as Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine. However, if a fully vaccinated individual becomes symptomatic, they should be tested and wear a mask until receiving test results.

All people in Massachusetts (regardless of vaccination status) are required to continue wearing face coverings in certain settings, including transportation and health care facilities. Please see www.mass.gov/maskrules for a complete list of venues where face coverings remain mandatory as of May 29, 2021.

For individuals who are not fully vaccinated, it is important that you continue to wear a face covering or mask to help prevent you from spreading COVID-19 to other people. People who show no symptoms of illness may still be able to spread COVID-19.

For individuals who are not fully vaccinated, the CDC advises the following:
• Wear a face covering or mask that covers your nose and mouth.
• Stay 6 feet apart from others who don’t live with you.
• Avoid crowds and poorly ventilated indoor spaces.
• Wash your hands often with soap and water. Use hand sanitizer if soap and water aren’t available
• Get tested if you have been exposed to or have symptoms associated with COVID -19.
When you wear a face covering or cloth mask, it should:
• Fit snugly but comfortably against the side of the face,
• Be secured with ties or ear loops,
• Include multiple layers of fabric,
• Allow for breathing without restriction, and
• Be able to be laundered and machine dried without damage or change to shape.
For more information, please refer to the CDC at: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated-guidance.html
This advisory may change based on public health data and further guidance from the CDC.

https://www.mass.gov/doc/updated-advisory-regarding-masks-and-face-coverings-july-30-2021-0/download