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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 4 newly reported confirmed deaths (7 less than yesterday - down 63.6%) for a total of 17,799 deaths, 1,373 newly reported confirmed cases (79 less than yesterday - down 5.4%) for a total of 693,093 cases, and 55,432 newly reported molecular tests (6,858 less than yesterday - down 11.0%).The seven day average positivity rate is 2.76%, compared to 2.78% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.33%; that rate was not reported yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 370 and 203 newly reported probable cases (76 more than yesterday - up 59.8%) for a total of 49,109. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 4 new deaths for a total of 18,169 and 1,576 new cases for a total of 742,202. There were 439 COVID-19 patients in hospital (7 more than yesterday - up 1.6%), 94 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (5 more than yesterday - up 5.6%) and 48 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (5 more than yesterday - up 11.6%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 913.0 (8 more than yesterday - up 0.9%), 1,326% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 86.0% below the highest observed value of 6,233.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.76% (0 less than yesterday - down 0.7%), 799% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 90% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 400.0 (11 more than yesterday - up 2.8%), 370% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 90% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 5.0 (same as yesterday), 400% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/12/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,089 non-ICU beds, of which 7,760 (85.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 345 (3.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 984 (10.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,330 ICU beds, of which 881 (66.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 94 (7.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 355 (26.7%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,990 non-ICU beds, of which 7,659 (85.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 343 (4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 988 (11.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,335 ICU beds, of which 878 (65.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 89 (6.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 368 (27.6%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 660.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 219.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.61% (or 3.25% excluding higher education).

Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 1,000 total cases, with a two-week case count of 22 cases, a daily incidence rate of 6.6 which is higher than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of green (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 55,285 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,952 and a two-week positive test count of 23, for a percent-positive rate of 1.18 which is higher than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 691,720 total cases, with a two-week case count of 14,941 cases, a daily incidence rate of 15.3 which is higher than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 25,414,917 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 583,853 and a two-week positive test count of 16,962, for a percent-positive rate of 2.91 which is higher than last week.

As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 125 would be coded gray (compared to 141 last week), 56 would be coded green (compared to 97 last week), and 139 would be coded yellow (compared to 89 last week).The remaining 31 towns would be coded red (compared to 24 last week): Brockton, Chicopee, Dighton, Dracut, Dudley, East Bridgewater, Edgartown, Fairhaven, Fall River, Great Barrington, Lawrence, Lowell, Methuen, Monson, Nantucket, New Bedford, North Adams, Oak Bluffs, Oxford, Palmer, Pepperell, Rehoboth, Revere, Seekonk, Shirley, Somerset, Southbridge, Springfield, Taunton, Westport, and Wilbraham.

11 cities/towns would be newly coded red this week (Dighton, Dracut, Dudley, Edgartown, Great Barrington, Monson, Oak Bluffs, Oxford, Palmer, Revere, and Wilbraham) and 4 cities/towns would no longer be coded red this week (Acushnet, Leicester, Provincetown, and West Boylston).

Of the 10 towns near my church, 5 are coded gray (Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, and Maynard), 3 are coded green (Acton, Stow, and Sudbury), 2 are coded yellow (Hudson, and Marlborough), and none are coded red.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Day-to-day changes are at least somewhat encouraging, as newly reported deaths and cases are both down compared to yesterday. Alas, hospitalizations continue to climb, as do the seven-day averages for cases and hospitalizations. The seven-day average for percent-positive ticked down again slightly. The weekly city and town data, on the other hand, is substantially worse than last week; 31 communities this week meet the state's old criteria for the red (highest-risk) color code (up from 24 last week), while 139 meet the criteria for the yellow ("moderate-risk") color code (up from 89 last week). Of course, Massachusetts is no longer announcing those ratings, but the data is still there for those who can make computers follow logic.

I've been very critical of Governor Charlie Baker's unwillingness to restore any of the old state mandates regarding COVID-19. Today, however, he did take one positive step, mandating vaccination for all Executive Department employees:
Governor Charlie Baker on Thursday announced that tens of thousands of state employees under his purview must prove they have been vaccinated against COVID-19 by Oct. 17 or risk being fired.

About 42,000 Executive Department employees, including those working in person and those who are teleworking, will have to demonstrate their vaccination status through a secure system, the administration said in a news release. Employees may be entitled to exemptions "due to medical disability or ... a sincerely held religious belief," according to an executive order signed by Baker.

Unlike governors in California and New York — and Acting Mayor Kim Janey in Boston — the Baker administration is not offering employees the option of undergoing regular tests instead of being inoculated. That makes the mandate among the strongest in the nation.

[ ... ]

The new mandate is a pivot for Baker, who until now had resisted taking such a step.

"The idea that I would kick somebody out of a job — and especially in the kind of economy we have now — because, quote unquote, they wouldn't get vaccinated right away on an [emergency use authorization]-approved vaccine ... No. I'm not gonna play that game," Baker said in May.

It's not yet clear how the public sector unions will respond to the mandate. David Holway, the national president of the National Association of Government Employees, which represents 12,000 Massachusetts executive branch employees and thousands more in the state, told the Globe earlier this week that he supported officials who have allowed workers to choose between vaccination and regular testing. NAGE is encouraging all its members to get vaccinated, he added.

The Baker administration "will continue to work with its union partners regarding this policy," and discuss potential disciplinary consequences well before the October deadline, the press release said.

The Baker announcement comes as the Delta variant drives a national surge in COVID-19 cases, with metrics tracking up in Massachusetts even as the state's higher vaccination rates insulate it from the crises now apparent in hospitals across the country. Massachusetts has one of the nation's highest vaccination rates and lowest hospitalization rates, figures Baker routinely touts as he faces increasing pressure to enact more COVID-19 restrictions.

A number of Massachusetts Democrats are calling on Baker to require masks in schools this fall, saying that the risks are particularly high among children who are too young to have yet received a dose. In a letter this week, Representative Ayanna Pressley, the Boston Democrat, exhorted Baker to mandate both masks and vaccinations in schools.

Well, better late than never, I suppose. Now how about a mask mandate, given that every county in the state has either "sustained" or "high" community spread by the CDC standards?

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 20 active and 1,039 cumulative cases as of August 18. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

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