edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
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The Commonwealth took yesterday off (unsurprising, since it was Presidents Day; surprising, since they made no mention of it on their dashboard), so today's numbers are the first in four days.

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 37 newly reported confirmed deaths (10 less than Friday - down 21.3%) for a total of 22,445 deaths, 4,118 newly reported confirmed cases (2,135 more than Friday - up 107.7%) for a total of 1,534,071 cases, and 185,410 newly reported molecular tests (96,327 more than Friday - up 108.1%).
Note that today's death data covers 4 days. Averaged over that period, there were 9.2 newly reported deaths per day (38 less than Friday - down 80.3%). Note that today's case/test data covers 4 days. Averaged over that period, there were 1,029.5 newly reported cases per day (954 less than Friday - down 48.1%), and 46,352.5 newly reported molecular tests per day (42,730 less than Friday - down 48.0%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 2.44%, compared to 2.74% Friday. The state also reported 11 newly reported probable deaths (9 more than Friday - up 450.0%) for a total of 712 and 262 newly reported probable cases (114 more than Friday - up 77.0%) for a total of 131,515. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 48 new deaths for a total of 23,157 and 4,380 new cases for a total of 1,665,586. There were 573 COVID-19 patients in hospital (146 less than Friday - down 20.3%), 113 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (26 less than Friday - down 18.7%) and 68 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 less than Friday - down 4.2%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,027.0 (173 less than Friday - down 14.4%), 1,504% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 96.0% below the highest observed value of 23,180.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.44% (0 less than Friday - down 11.0%), 690% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 91% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 718.0 (173 less than Friday - down 19.4%), 744% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 82% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 34.0 (2 less than Friday - down 5.6%), 3,300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 81% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,768 non-ICU beds, of which 7,333 (83.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 460 (5.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 975 (11.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,251 ICU beds, of which 863 (69.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 113 (9.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 275 (22.0%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,992 non-ICU beds, of which 7,640 (85.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 580 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 772 (8.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,266 ICU beds, of which 903 (71.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 139 (11.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 224 (17.7%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,158.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 44.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,570.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.53%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,245.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 41.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,012.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.90% (or 3.15% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Newly reported deaths are down compared to Friday, both on a raw-number comparison and the (presumably more accurate) comparision between today's numbers averaged over four days and Friday's single-day count. Newly reported cases were up on a raw-number basis, but well down averaged over four days. (We haven't had many four-day reports over the course of this pandemic, but today's 4,118 case count is the second-lowest; only the 269 on July 6, 2021 is lower.) Hospitalizations are down substantially as well, as are all four of the seven-day averages.

These numbers do show great improvement over earlier this year. However, for the past several weeks, we keep seeing great improvements over the weekend being undone to some extent during the middle of the week. And, as glad as I am to see the new-case count nearing one thousand per day, the state is still showing an overall level of high community transmission on the CDC Covid Data Tracker site. I found out over the weekend that Littleton (next town over to me) had scrapped its indoor mask mandate last week with a terse announcement:
Effective Friday, February 12th at 12:00 AM, the Littleton Board of Health voted to lift the Indoor Mask Mandate.

Thank you for your assistance in implementing the mandate.
My own town of Acton still has an active mandate for now. If the county-wide community transmission levels ever get below 50 new cases per day per 100k population (the CDC's threshhold for "moderate" community spread, where indoor masking is only recommended for unvaccinated individuals), I may actually start feeling comfortable unmasked. However, we're still over twice that level even with favorable weekend reporting wonkiness.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 16 active and 2,764 cumulative cases as of February 21. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.

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Edmund Schweppe

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