Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 26 newly reported confirmed deaths (20 less than yesterday - down 43.5%) for a total of 15,534 deaths, 1,150 newly reported confirmed cases (166 less than yesterday - down 12.6%) for a total of 540,794 cases, and 49,929 newly reported molecular tests (37,491 less than yesterday - down 42.9%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.90%, compared to 1.86% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.15%, compared to 3.16% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 35,660 (214 less than yesterday - down 0.6%). The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as yesterday) for a total of 319 and 112 newly reported probable cases (92 less than yesterday - down 45.1%) for a total of 29,752. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 27 new deaths for a total of 15,853 and 1,262 new cases for a total of 570,546. There were 888 COVID-19 patients in hospital (39 less than yesterday - down 4.2%), 229 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (5 less than yesterday - down 2.1%) and 140 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (13 less than yesterday - down 8.5%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,245.0 (53 more than yesterday - up 4.4%), 692% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 81.0% below the highest observed value of 6,241.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.90% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.8%), 146% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,012.0 (30 less than yesterday - down 2.9%), 552% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 74% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 41.0 (1 less than yesterday - down 2.4%), 272% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 77% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,069 non-ICU beds, of which 6,582 (72.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 659 (7.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,828 (20.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,431 ICU beds, of which 798 (55.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 229 (16.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 404 (28.2%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,141 non-ICU beds, of which 6,822 (74.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 693 (8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,626 (17.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,442 ICU beds, of which 836 (58.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 234 (16.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 372 (25.8%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,046.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 50.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,529.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.96% (or 4.59% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Big drop in deaths day-to-day; smaller drop in cases, but a big drop in tests suggests that's more likely due to weekend reporting effects than anything else. A slight uptick in positivity is hopefully just noise.

In a very sad milestone, the estimated COVID-19 death toll nationwide passed the half-million mark today, matching the combat death tolls from World War II, Korean and Vietnam combined:

The COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. topped 500,000 Monday, all but matching the number of Americans killed in World War II, Korea and Vietnam combined.

The lives lost, as recorded by Johns Hopkins University, are about equal to the population of Kansas City, Missouri, and greater than that of Miami; Raleigh, North Carolina; or Omaha, Nebraska.

And despite the rollout of vaccines since mid-December, a closely watched model from the University of Washington projects more than 589,000 dead by June 1.

The U.S. toll is by far the highest reported in the world, accounting for 20 percent of the nearly 2.5 million coronavirus deaths globally, though the true numbers are thought to be significantly greater, in part because of the many cases that were overlooked, especially early in the outbreak.

Average daily deaths and cases have plummeted in the past few weeks. Virus deaths have fallen from more than 4,000 reported on some days in January to an average of fewer than 1,900 per day. But experts warn that dangerous variants could cause the trend to reverse itself.

Some experts say not enough Americans have been inoculated yet for the vaccine to be making much of a difference.

Instead, the drop-off in deaths and cases has been attributed to the passing of the holidays; the cold and bleak days of midwinter, when many people are inclined to stay home; and better adherence to mask rules and social distancing.

The first known deaths from the virus in the U.S. happened in early February 2020. It took four months to reach the first 100,000 dead. The toll hit 200,000 deaths in September and 300,000 in December. Then it took just over a month to go from 300,000 to 400,000 and another month to climb from 400,000 to 500,000.

The U.S. recorded an estimated 405,000 deaths in World War II, 58,000 in the Vietnam War and 36,000 in the Korean War.

Thank you so much, Donald J. Trump. Heckuva job.</sarcasm>

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 27 active and 749 cumulative cases as of February 21. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 1PM on February 19, 2021 reported 744 cumulative cases with 33 individuals in isolation, 680 persons recovered and 31 fatalities.