Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 22 newly reported confirmed deaths (14 more than yesterday - up 175.0%) for a total of 18,856 deaths, 2,581 newly reported confirmed cases (615 less than yesterday - down 19.2%) for a total of 829,577 cases, and 100,809 newly reported molecular tests (12,808 less than yesterday - down 11.3%).The seven day average positivity rate is 3.09%, compared to 3.04% yesterday. The state also reported 2 newly reported probable deaths (1 more than yesterday - up 100.0%) for a total of 412 and 263 newly reported probable cases (131 less than yesterday - down 33.2%) for a total of 61,156. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 24 new deaths for a total of 19,268 and 2,844 new cases for a total of 890,733. There were 663 COVID-19 patients in hospital (6 more than yesterday - up 0.9%), 129 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (3 less than yesterday - down 2.3%) and 68 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 more than yesterday - up 1.5%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,747.0 (82 more than yesterday - up 4.9%), 2,629% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 72.0% below the highest observed value of 6,229.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.09% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.4%), 901% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 89% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 591.0 (17 more than yesterday - up 3.0%), 595% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 85% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 11.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 22.2%), 1,000% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 94% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,089 non-ICU beds, of which 7,830 (86.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 534 (5.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 725 (8.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,257 ICU beds, of which 924 (73.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 129 (10.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 204 (16.2%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,117 non-ICU beds, of which 7,876 (86.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 525 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 716 (7.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,269 ICU beds, of which 935 (73.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 132 (10.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 202 (15.9%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,014.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 11.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 518.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.92%.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

The drop in day-over-day cases numbers is good to see; the climb in day-over-day death and hospitalization numbers is not. Neither is the fact that all four seven-day averages are up compared to yesterday.

The Feds have made it official, now: boosters for everyone! Or, at least, all adults:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The US on Friday opened COVID-19 booster shots to all adults and took the extra step of urging people 50 and older to seek one, aiming to ward off a winter surge as coronavirus cases rise even before millions of Americans travel for the holidays.

Until now, Americans faced a confusing list of who was eligible for a booster that varied by age, their health and which kind of vaccine they got first. The Food and Drug Administration authorized changes to Pfizer and Moderna boosters that makes it easier.

Under the new rules, anyone 18 or older can choose either a Pfizer or Moderna booster six months after their last dose. For anyone who got the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine, the wait already was just two months. And people can mix-and-match boosters from any company.

"We heard loud and clear that people needed something simpler — and this, I think, is simple," FDA vaccine chief Dr. Peter Marks told The Associated Press.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had to agree before the new policy became official late Friday. CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky endorsed a recommendation from her agency's scientific advisers that — in addition to offering all adults a booster — had stressed that people 50 and older should be urged to get one.
"It's a stronger recommendation," said CDC adviser Dr. Matthew Daley of Kaiser Permanente Colorado. "I want to make sure we provide as much protection as we can."

The CDC also put out a plea for those who had previously qualified but hadn't yet signed up for a booster to quit putting it off — saying older Americans and people with risks such as obesity, diabetes or other health problems should try to get one before the holidays.

The expansion makes tens of millions more Americans eligible for an extra dose of protection.

The No. 1 priority for the US, and the world, still is to get more unvaccinated people their first doses. All three COVID-19 vaccines used in the US continue to offer strong protection against severe illness, including hospitalization and death, without a booster.

But protection against infection can wane with time, and the US and many countries in Europe also are grappling with how widely to recommend boosters as they fight a winter wave of new cases. In the US, COVID-19 diagnoses have climbed steadily over the last three weeks, especially in states where colder weather already has driven people indoors.

And about a dozen states didn't wait for federal officials to act before opening boosters to all adults.

"The direction is not a good one. People are going inside more and, 'oops,' next week happens to be the largest travel week of the year, so it probably makes sense to do whatever we can here to try to turn the tide," Marks told the AP.

Vaccinations began in the US last December, about a year after the coronavirus first emerged. More than 195 million Americans are now fully vaccinated, defined as having received two doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines or the single-dose J&J. More than 32 million already have received a booster, a large proportion — 17 million — people 65 or older. Experts say that's reassuring as seniors are at particularly high risk from COVID-19 and were among the first in line for initial vaccinations.

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While the vaccines spur immune memory that protects against severe disease, protection against infection depends on levels of virus-fighting antibodies that wane with time. No one yet knows how long antibody levels will stay high after a booster.

But even a temporary boost in protection against infection may help over the winter and holidays, said CDC's Dr. Sara Oliver.

Some experts worry that all the attention to boosters may harm efforts to reach the 47 million US adults who remain unvaccinated. There's also growing concern that rich countries are offering widespread boosters when poor countries haven't been able to vaccinate more than a small fraction of their populations.

"In terms of the No. 1 priority for reducing transmission in this country and throughout the world, this remains getting people their first vaccine series," said Dr. David Dowdy of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Given where case counts have been going, and given that many states (including Massachusetts) have already jumped the gun and authorized boosters for all adults, this is a decision that makes a huge amount of sense. Whether it cuts those cases down enough to compensate for the vaccine-hesitant, let alone the antivax-idiotic, is unfortunately a different question.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 43 active and 1,270 cumulative cases as of November 18. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.