Local COVID-19 updates
Oct. 12th, 2021 05:51 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeIt's the Tuesday after a long weekend, which means we get the first statewide COVID report since Friday. How screwed up is the data?
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 36 newly reported confirmed deaths (20 more than Friday - up 125.0%) for a total of 18,394 deaths, 4,466 newly reported confirmed cases (2,883 more than Friday - up 182.1%) for a total of 772,932 cases, and 238,997 newly reported molecular tests (123,605 more than Friday - up 107.1%).
Note that today's data covers 4 days. Averaged over that period, there were 9.0 newly reported deaths per day (7 less than Friday - down 43.8%), 1,116.5 newly reported cases per day (466 less than Friday - down 29.5%), and 59,749.2 newly reported molecular tests per day (55,643 less than Friday - down 48.2%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 1.88%, compared to 1.80% Friday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as Friday) for a total of 389 and 159 newly reported probable cases (82 less than Friday - down 34.0%) for a total of 55,178. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 37 new deaths for a total of 18,783 and 4,625 new cases for a total of 828,110. There were 541 COVID-19 patients in hospital (21 less than Friday - down 3.7%), 144 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (3 less than Friday - down 2.0%) and 92 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than Friday - down 1.1%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 971.0 (27 less than Friday - down 2.7%), 1,417% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 85.0% below the highest observed value of 6,230.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.88% (0 more than Friday - up 4.0%), 508% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 558.0 (29 less than Friday - down 4.9%), 556% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 10.0 (3 less than Friday - down 23.1%), 900% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,822 non-ICU beds, of which 7,353 (83.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 397 (4.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,072 (12.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,253 ICU beds, of which 818 (65.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 144 (11.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 291 (23.2%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,895 non-ICU beds, of which 7,717 (86.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 415 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 763 (8.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,276 ICU beds, of which 893 (70.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 147 (11.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 236 (18.5%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,163.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 10.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 616.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.97%.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Well, things could certainly be worse. Averaged out over the four days (Friday through Monday) covered by today's data, deaths and cases were both down substantially. Hospitalizations are also down, as are the seven-day averages for deaths, cases and hospitalizations; the seven-day average for percent-positive is up, but is still well below two percent. All that being said, though, every county in the state (except Nantucket) has either "high" or "substantial" community transmission per the latest CDC data, and that's way too damn much for my taste. Besides, weekends have tended to underreport deaths (in particular).
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 12 active and 1,162 cumulative cases as of October 11. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 36 newly reported confirmed deaths (20 more than Friday - up 125.0%) for a total of 18,394 deaths, 4,466 newly reported confirmed cases (2,883 more than Friday - up 182.1%) for a total of 772,932 cases, and 238,997 newly reported molecular tests (123,605 more than Friday - up 107.1%).
Note that today's data covers 4 days. Averaged over that period, there were 9.0 newly reported deaths per day (7 less than Friday - down 43.8%), 1,116.5 newly reported cases per day (466 less than Friday - down 29.5%), and 59,749.2 newly reported molecular tests per day (55,643 less than Friday - down 48.2%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 1.88%, compared to 1.80% Friday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as Friday) for a total of 389 and 159 newly reported probable cases (82 less than Friday - down 34.0%) for a total of 55,178. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 37 new deaths for a total of 18,783 and 4,625 new cases for a total of 828,110. There were 541 COVID-19 patients in hospital (21 less than Friday - down 3.7%), 144 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (3 less than Friday - down 2.0%) and 92 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than Friday - down 1.1%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 971.0 (27 less than Friday - down 2.7%), 1,417% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 85.0% below the highest observed value of 6,230.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.88% (0 more than Friday - up 4.0%), 508% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 558.0 (29 less than Friday - down 4.9%), 556% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 10.0 (3 less than Friday - down 23.1%), 900% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,822 non-ICU beds, of which 7,353 (83.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 397 (4.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,072 (12.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,253 ICU beds, of which 818 (65.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 144 (11.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 291 (23.2%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,895 non-ICU beds, of which 7,717 (86.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 415 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 763 (8.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,276 ICU beds, of which 893 (70.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 147 (11.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 236 (18.5%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,163.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 10.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 616.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.97%.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Well, things could certainly be worse. Averaged out over the four days (Friday through Monday) covered by today's data, deaths and cases were both down substantially. Hospitalizations are also down, as are the seven-day averages for deaths, cases and hospitalizations; the seven-day average for percent-positive is up, but is still well below two percent. All that being said, though, every county in the state (except Nantucket) has either "high" or "substantial" community transmission per the latest CDC data, and that's way too damn much for my taste. Besides, weekends have tended to underreport deaths (in particular).
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 12 active and 1,162 cumulative cases as of October 11. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.