Local COVID-19 updates
Oct. 5th, 2021 06:22 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 21 newly reported confirmed deaths (9 more than yesterday - up 75.0%) for a total of 18,293 deaths, 1,184 newly reported confirmed cases (2,099 less than yesterday - down 63.9%) for a total of 763,859 cases, and 54,597 newly reported molecular tests (159,079 less than yesterday - down 74.4%).
Note that the previous days's data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 4.0 newly reported deaths per day and today's newly reported deaths are 17 more than the previous day's values - up 425.0%. There were 1,094.3 newly reported cases per day and today's newly reported cases are 90 more than the previous day's values - up 8.2%. There were 71,225.3 newly reported molecular tests per day and today's newly reported tests are 16,628 less than the previous day's values - down 23.3%.
The seven day average positivity rate is 1.79%, compared to 1.69% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 387 and 156 newly reported probable cases (88 more than yesterday - up 129.4%) for a total of 54,431. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 21 new deaths for a total of 18,680 and 1,340 new cases for a total of 818,290. There were 584 COVID-19 patients in hospital (3 more than yesterday - up 0.5%), 166 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 more than yesterday - up 1.2%) and 92 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (7 less than yesterday - down 7.1%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 969.0 (105 less than yesterday - down 9.8%), 1,414% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 85.0% below the highest observed value of 6,231.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.79% (0 more than yesterday - up 5.6%), 480% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 94% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 609.0 (2 less than yesterday - down 0.3%), 616% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 85% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 11.0 (2 less than yesterday - down 15.4%), 1,000% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 94% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,801 non-ICU beds, of which 7,412 (84.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 418 (4.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 971 (11.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,250 ICU beds, of which 830 (66.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 166 (13.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 254 (20.3%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,740 non-ICU beds, of which 7,283 (83.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 417 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,040 (11.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,254 ICU beds, of which 829 (66.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 164 (13.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 261 (20.8%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,222.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 677.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.10%.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day changes aren't that encouraging. Deaths are way up. Raw case counts are down, but yesterday's report covered three days; today's case counts are up noticably compared to yesterday's number averaged over three days. Hospitalizations are also up. The seven-day averages are a mixed bag; deaths, cases and hospitalizations are all down, but percent-positive is up.
The Boston Globe seems to think there are some encouraging trends in the state's data:
That article was published before the Commonwealth released today's report (which was not, in my rather personal opinion, terribly encouraging). Granted, things are a lot better now than they have been at other times in this pandemic (like, say, this January). OTOH, things are also a lot worse now than a lot of times (like, say, this June).
Myself? Color me gloomy. Also color me masked up in public indoor spaces for the foreseeable future. And probably getting a booster if one for Moderna ends up approved.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 27 active and 1,151 cumulative cases as of October 4. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.
Note that the previous days's data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 4.0 newly reported deaths per day and today's newly reported deaths are 17 more than the previous day's values - up 425.0%. There were 1,094.3 newly reported cases per day and today's newly reported cases are 90 more than the previous day's values - up 8.2%. There were 71,225.3 newly reported molecular tests per day and today's newly reported tests are 16,628 less than the previous day's values - down 23.3%.
The seven day average positivity rate is 1.79%, compared to 1.69% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 387 and 156 newly reported probable cases (88 more than yesterday - up 129.4%) for a total of 54,431. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 21 new deaths for a total of 18,680 and 1,340 new cases for a total of 818,290. There were 584 COVID-19 patients in hospital (3 more than yesterday - up 0.5%), 166 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 more than yesterday - up 1.2%) and 92 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (7 less than yesterday - down 7.1%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 969.0 (105 less than yesterday - down 9.8%), 1,414% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 85.0% below the highest observed value of 6,231.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.79% (0 more than yesterday - up 5.6%), 480% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 94% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 609.0 (2 less than yesterday - down 0.3%), 616% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 85% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 11.0 (2 less than yesterday - down 15.4%), 1,000% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 94% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,801 non-ICU beds, of which 7,412 (84.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 418 (4.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 971 (11.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,250 ICU beds, of which 830 (66.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 166 (13.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 254 (20.3%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,740 non-ICU beds, of which 7,283 (83.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 417 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,040 (11.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,254 ICU beds, of which 829 (66.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 164 (13.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 261 (20.8%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,222.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 677.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.10%.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day changes aren't that encouraging. Deaths are way up. Raw case counts are down, but yesterday's report covered three days; today's case counts are up noticably compared to yesterday's number averaged over three days. Hospitalizations are also up. The seven-day averages are a mixed bag; deaths, cases and hospitalizations are all down, but percent-positive is up.
The Boston Globe seems to think there are some encouraging trends in the state's data:
Encouraging trends have emerged in Massachusetts coronavirus data, including a decrease in cases and a downtick in hospitalizations. Will the unpredictable virus, which has killed more than 18,000 people in the state so far, continue to wane or make a deadly comeback this fall and winter?
The declines in coronavirus metrics here align with a national trend. "We certainly are turning the corner on this particular surge," Dr. Anthony Fauci, President Biden's chief medical adviser said Sunday on ABC-TV's "This Week."
But experts say it's too soon to pop open the champagne. "I've learned not to declare victory over this tricky virus ... it has surged back several times before," Dr. Paul Sax, clinical director of the Division of Infectious Diseases at Brigham and Women's Hospital, said in an e-mail.
"We're on track, but let's not let our guard down right now," said Dr. Sabrina Assoumou, an infectious disease physician at Boston Medical Center and professor at Boston University School of Medicine.
Both emphasized the importance of persuading more people to get their coronavirus shots in a state that is already a national leader in vaccinations. "This is when we should vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate," said Assoumou.
Some pandemic models are suggesting cases will rise again dramatically as winter approaches and the highly contagious Delta variant attacks those who are unvaccinated, people gather inside in cooler weather, and immunity wanes among those who were vaccinated months ago. The good news, the Globe reported last week, is that hospitals are not expected to be overwhelmed, due to the state's high vaccination rate.
[ ... ]
Experts say that the coming months in Massachusetts will be a test of whether a highly vaccinated state can survive a winter without a deadly surge like the one the state suffered last winter.
More than 5.1 million of the state's approximately 7 million residents have gotten at least one shot of the two-shot vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna or of the one-shot vaccine from Johnson & Johnson. Pfizer booster shots are being administered to ensure people's immunity remains strong, while Moderna and Johnson & Johnson are in the process of seeking booster approvals. Pfizer is also hoping for approval of a vaccine for children 5 to 11, a large group currently ineligible for shots.
But "we know that this particular time is a critical time where cases tend to go up," Assoumou said.
With the colder weather arriving, "We're not going to be able to spend as much time outside, and we know that spending time outdoors is a great way to reduce transmission," she said.
The "back-to-back" holidays in the fall and winter also pose a threat of increasing virus transmission as people gather to celebrate, she said.
In addition to getting their shots, people should practice mitigation measures such as masking in indoor public spaces, improving ventilation, and practicing physical distancing, she said.
"These trends are encouraging but we have seen this movie before," Dr. Howard Koh, a former high-ranking federal and state public health official who is now a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said in an e-mail. "Letting down our guard now will only allow the virus to mutate and live on yet again."
That article was published before the Commonwealth released today's report (which was not, in my rather personal opinion, terribly encouraging). Granted, things are a lot better now than they have been at other times in this pandemic (like, say, this January). OTOH, things are also a lot worse now than a lot of times (like, say, this June).
Myself? Color me gloomy. Also color me masked up in public indoor spaces for the foreseeable future. And probably getting a booster if one for Moderna ends up approved.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 27 active and 1,151 cumulative cases as of October 4. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.