Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates
Sep. 13th, 2021 05:55 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 19 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 more than Friday - up 5.6%) for a total of 17,991 deaths, 4,752 newly reported confirmed cases (3,026 more than Friday - up 175.3%) for a total of 730,111 cases, and 242,837 newly reported molecular tests (155,465 more than Friday - up 177.9%).
Note that today's data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 6.3 newly reported deaths per day (12 less than Friday - down 64.8%), 1,584.0 newly reported cases per day (142 less than Friday - down 8.2%), and 80,945.7 newly reported molecular tests per day (6,426 less than Friday - down 7.4%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 2.22%, compared to 2.52% Friday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as Friday) for a total of 378 and 333 newly reported probable cases (186 more than Friday - up 126.5%) for a total of 51,996. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 19 new deaths for a total of 18,369 and 5,085 new cases for a total of 782,107. There were 675 COVID-19 patients in hospital (51 more than Friday - up 8.2%), 170 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 more than Friday - up 1.2%) and 88 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than Friday - up 2.3%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,285.0 (155 more than Friday - up 13.7%), 1,907% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 80.0% below the highest observed value of 6,232.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.22% (0 less than Friday - down 11.8%), 621% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 92% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 624.0 (24 more than Friday - up 4.0%), 634% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 9.0 (1 more than Friday - up 12.5%), 800% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,825 non-ICU beds, of which 7,234 (82.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 505 (5.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,086 (12.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,306 ICU beds, of which 823 (63.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 170 (13.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 313 (24.0%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,990 non-ICU beds, of which 7,788 (86.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 456 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 746 (8.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,308 ICU beds, of which 872 (66.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 168 (12.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 268 (20.5%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,154.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 576.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.51%.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
I still haven't figured out a "good" way to do day-to-day comparisons with these multiple-day reports. On the one hand, the raw number of newly reported deaths is up slightly compared to Friday while the raw number of newly reported cases is up massively. On the other hand, today's numbers cover three days of data; averaging those totals over three days, the average number of newly reported deaths is down a lot compared to Friday while the average number of newly reported cases is down slightly. The hospitalization counts are also up compared to Friday, which bodes poorly. The seven-day averages for percent-positive are down, but those for deaths, cases and hospitalizations are all up, which bodes worse.
Just to make life even more fun, last week didn't have a Monday report (courtesy of the Labor Day weekend, which the state took off). There was, of course, a three-day report two weeks ago; compared to that, today's three-day numbers of newly reported deaths and cases were both higher. Overall, not particularly encouraging numbers.
At least Massachusetts isn't running short on ICU beds, unlike too many other states. The Boston Globe reprinted a story from the Washington Post about one man in Alabama whose local hospital couldn't treat his particular cardiac condition and tried to find an ICU bed for him - and had to call 43 separate hospitals in three states to find one, because every ICU was overwhelmed with COVID patients:
Note that this guy didn't die of COVID, and it's not clear that having to be transported two hundred miles contributed to his death. But Alabama currently has one of the highest case rates in the nation (74.2 daily new cases per 100k population, according to Covid Act Now) and one of the worst vaccination rates (barely 51% of the state has had even one dose), along with a terrifyingly high 21.4% of all COVID tests coming back positive (which means those case counts are just about guaranteed to be undercounts). All that adds up to hospitals overwhelmed by COVID and unable to deal with all the other things that could possibly go wrong with people.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 15 active and 1,088 cumulative cases as of September 12. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.
Note that today's data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 6.3 newly reported deaths per day (12 less than Friday - down 64.8%), 1,584.0 newly reported cases per day (142 less than Friday - down 8.2%), and 80,945.7 newly reported molecular tests per day (6,426 less than Friday - down 7.4%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 2.22%, compared to 2.52% Friday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as Friday) for a total of 378 and 333 newly reported probable cases (186 more than Friday - up 126.5%) for a total of 51,996. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 19 new deaths for a total of 18,369 and 5,085 new cases for a total of 782,107. There were 675 COVID-19 patients in hospital (51 more than Friday - up 8.2%), 170 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 more than Friday - up 1.2%) and 88 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than Friday - up 2.3%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,285.0 (155 more than Friday - up 13.7%), 1,907% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 80.0% below the highest observed value of 6,232.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.22% (0 less than Friday - down 11.8%), 621% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 92% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 624.0 (24 more than Friday - up 4.0%), 634% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 9.0 (1 more than Friday - up 12.5%), 800% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,825 non-ICU beds, of which 7,234 (82.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 505 (5.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,086 (12.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,306 ICU beds, of which 823 (63.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 170 (13.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 313 (24.0%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,990 non-ICU beds, of which 7,788 (86.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 456 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 746 (8.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,308 ICU beds, of which 872 (66.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 168 (12.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 268 (20.5%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,154.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 576.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.51%.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
I still haven't figured out a "good" way to do day-to-day comparisons with these multiple-day reports. On the one hand, the raw number of newly reported deaths is up slightly compared to Friday while the raw number of newly reported cases is up massively. On the other hand, today's numbers cover three days of data; averaging those totals over three days, the average number of newly reported deaths is down a lot compared to Friday while the average number of newly reported cases is down slightly. The hospitalization counts are also up compared to Friday, which bodes poorly. The seven-day averages for percent-positive are down, but those for deaths, cases and hospitalizations are all up, which bodes worse.
Just to make life even more fun, last week didn't have a Monday report (courtesy of the Labor Day weekend, which the state took off). There was, of course, a three-day report two weeks ago; compared to that, today's three-day numbers of newly reported deaths and cases were both higher. Overall, not particularly encouraging numbers.
At least Massachusetts isn't running short on ICU beds, unlike too many other states. The Boston Globe reprinted a story from the Washington Post about one man in Alabama whose local hospital couldn't treat his particular cardiac condition and tried to find an ICU bed for him - and had to call 43 separate hospitals in three states to find one, because every ICU was overwhelmed with COVID patients:
When Ray DeMonia was having a cardiac emergency last month, his Alabama family waited anxiously for a nearby hospital with available space in its intensive care unit.
But in a state where coronavirus infections and unvaccinated patients have overwhelmed hospitals in recent months, finding an available ICU bed was an ordeal. It was so difficult, his family wrote this month, that the hospital in his hometown of Cullman, Ala., contacted 43 others in three states - and all were unable to give him the care he needed.
DeMonia, who was eventually transferred to a Mississippi hospital about 200 miles away, died at 73 on Sept. 1 - three days shy of his birthday.
Raven DeMonia, his daughter, told The Washington Post on Sunday that it was "shocking" when the family was told that dozens of ICUs were unable to treat her father.
"It was like, 'What do you mean?' " she said when she found out her father was being airlifted to a Mississippi hospital. "I never thought this would happen to us."
Now, in DeMonia's obituary, his family is urging those who remain unvaccinated to get immunized to help hospitals that have been pushed to their limits and struggling to treat emergencies not related to the pandemic. His daughter told The Post he was vaccinated against the coronavirus.
"In honor of Ray, please get vaccinated if you have not, in an effort to free up resources for non COVID related emergencies," the family wrote. "He would not want any other family to go through what his did."
[ ... ]
Ray DeMonia suffered a stroke in April 2020 during the early days of the pandemic, she said, but was able to find care within three hours at a Birmingham hospital that was "covid-free." He called her from his hospital bed last year and sounded like his normal self, his daughter said. He was eventually vaccinated, and he hoped the coronavirus situation in the community would improve so he could get back to in-person antique shows and auctions.
"He knew what the vaccine meant for his health and what it meant to staying alive," she said. "He said, 'I just want to get back to shaking hands with people, selling stuff and talking antiques.' "
On the evening of Aug. 23, Ray DeMonia had heart problems and was taken to Cullman Regional. The next morning, about 12 hours after he was admitted, his daughter said her mother got a call saying that the staff had tried 43 hospitals without any luck in getting him a specialized cardiac ICU bed. They were, however, able to find an open ICU bed at Rush Foundation Hospital in Meridian, Miss.
Malone, the Alabama hospital's spokeswoman, said situations such as the one experienced by DeMonia have been an "ongoing problem" reported by doctors at Cullman Regional and hospitals throughout the state.
"When patients are transported to other facilities to receive care that they need, that's becoming increasingly more difficult because all hospitals are experiencing an increased lack of bed space," she said.
Note that this guy didn't die of COVID, and it's not clear that having to be transported two hundred miles contributed to his death. But Alabama currently has one of the highest case rates in the nation (74.2 daily new cases per 100k population, according to Covid Act Now) and one of the worst vaccination rates (barely 51% of the state has had even one dose), along with a terrifyingly high 21.4% of all COVID tests coming back positive (which means those case counts are just about guaranteed to be undercounts). All that adds up to hospitals overwhelmed by COVID and unable to deal with all the other things that could possibly go wrong with people.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 15 active and 1,088 cumulative cases as of September 12. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.