Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 10 newly reported confirmed deaths (4 more than Friday - up 66.7%) for a total of 17,857 deaths, 4,081 newly reported confirmed cases (2,490 more than Friday - up 156.5%) for a total of 708,042 cases, and 175,063 newly reported molecular tests (109,896 more than Friday - up 168.6%).

Note that today's data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 3.3 newly reported deaths per day (3 less than Friday - down 44.4%), 1,360.3 newly reported cases per day (231 less than Friday - down 14.5%), and 58,354.3 newly reported molecular tests per day (6,813 less than Friday - down 10.5%).

The seven day average positivity rate is 2.51%, compared to 2.75% Friday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than Friday) for a total of 372 and 218 newly reported probable cases (153 more than Friday - up 235.4%) for a total of 50,052. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 10 new deaths for a total of 18,229 and 4,299 new cases for a total of 758,094. There were 603 COVID-19 patients in hospital (31 more than Friday - up 5.4%), 156 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (7 more than Friday - up 4.7%) and 96 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (18 more than Friday - up 23.1%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,154.0 (148 more than Friday - up 14.7%), 1,675% above the lowest observed value of 65.0 on 6/25/2021 and 82.0% below the highest observed value of 6,233.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.51% (0 less than Friday - down 8.9%), 707% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 91% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 576.0 (39 more than Friday - up 7.3%), 577% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 6.0 (1 more than Friday - up 20.0%), 500% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/12/2021 and 97% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,671 non-ICU beds, of which 7,164 (82.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 447 (5.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,060 (12.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,285 ICU beds, of which 811 (63.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 156 (12.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 318 (24.7%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,941 non-ICU beds, of which 7,751 (86.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 423 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 767 (8.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,308 ICU beds, of which 885 (67.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 149 (11.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 274 (20.9%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 911.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 362.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.74%.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Mixed bag at best; death and case counts are way up compared to Friday, but today covers three days while Friday's report only covered twenty-four hours. I'm much more concerned that deaths and cases are up compared to last Monday's report, which also covered three days. The jump in hospitalizations isn't great, either; worse, today's count of 603 is the highest since the state reported 628 patients in hospital on April 27. The seven-day averages are mixed; percent-positive is down compared to Friday, but the other three are up, and cases are up a bunch.

This isn't necessarily news, but the Boston Globe ran this Bloomberg article over the weekend explaining how the mRNA vaccines may be still protecting against serious illness even as antibody levels drop off:

(Bloomberg) -- Antibodies against the coronavirus wane over time, but the immune system has a backup plan that doesn't rely on boosters, according to a study by scientists at the University of Pennsylvania, where technology for mRNA vaccines was developed.

Researchers at the university's Perelman School of Medicine tracked 61 people for six months after immunization with mRNA vaccines. The team noted that antibodies gradually ebbed, but that the shots generated durable immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 in the form of B and T cells that increased over time to help ward off serious illness.

"That was maybe a little bit surprising," said John Wherry, director of the institute for immunology, who works in the same faculty as mRNA pioneer Drew Weissman. The research was released Aug. 23 ahead of peer-review and publication.

Concern that Covid vaccines are providing a weaker shield against the more-transmissible delta strain in countries that began immunizations early has prompted health authorities to consider offering third doses to boost antibody levels. U.S. President Joe Biden said Friday his administration is considering whether to start offering extra jabs as soon as five months after receiving a second dose.

Although third doses promise to bolster antibodies and make them better at blocking SARS-CoV-2 for longer, the body has its own natural support to defend against Covid-19 even when circulating antibody levels decline, Wherry said.

"Should antibodies wane and you get a little bit of local infection, you have memory B cells there to sort of renew or respond very rapidly to make new neutralizing antibodies," he said.

Antibodies on mucosal surfaces lining the nose and throat block the coronavirus at its portal of entry, preventing it from causing an infection. But, as protective antibodies there fade, an infection is more likely to take hold -- at least until new antibodies are triggered in response.

Wherry's group found that memory B cells generated by the mRNA vaccines made by Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc. and its partner BioNTech SE appeared better at blocking virus variants including alpha, beta and delta, than those produced in response to a mild case of Covid-19.

Additionally, high levels of vaccine-induced T cells, a type of white blood cell capable of finding and killing virus-infected cells, were detected after six months, "maintaining an additional armor to protect us," Wherry said.

The findings help to explain why immunization remains effective at protecting against severe Covid-19, hospitalization and death even as more break-through infections occur.

"We're seeing a drop in efficacy when you only measure whether people get infected, but really, really steady immunity if you're measuring severe-disease outcomes," Wherry said. "That fits with the idea that circulating antibodies are going to protect you from infection, but memory B cells and memory T cells, while they may not eliminate the ability to have some virus in your nose, they're actually going to prevent severe disease."

The immune backups will also decrease the duration of Covid symptoms, prevent them from worsening, and reduce the likelihood of transmitting a SARS-CoV-2 infection to other people, he said.

"Vaccinated people are really not fueling this fire; it's really unvaccinated people that are," Wherry said. "So that's more reason to get vaccinated."

Good to know. (Still need to mask up, though, both to reduce the risk of catching things further and to reduce the risk of transmitting to someone else.)

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 14 active and 1,056 cumulative cases as of August 29. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.