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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 14 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 more than yesterday - up 27.3%) for a total of 17,899 deaths, 1,593 newly reported confirmed cases (203 less than yesterday - down 11.3%) for a total of 712,988 cases, and 84,130 newly reported molecular tests (10,210 more than yesterday - up 13.8%).The seven day average positivity rate is 2.45%, compared to 2.57% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.72%; that rate was not reported yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 more than yesterday) for a total of 373 and 174 newly reported probable cases (67 less than yesterday - down 27.8%) for a total of 50,685. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 15 new deaths for a total of 18,272 and 1,767 new cases for a total of 763,673. There were 595 COVID-19 patients in hospital (25 less than yesterday - down 4.0%), 158 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (11 less than yesterday - down 6.5%) and 99 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (5 less than yesterday - down 4.8%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,099.0 (11 less than yesterday - down 1.0%), 1,617% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 83.0% below the highest observed value of 6,232.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.45% (0 less than yesterday - down 4.6%), 691% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 91% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 590.0 (3 more than yesterday - up 0.5%), 594% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 85% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 7.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 16.7%), 600% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/12/2021 and 96% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,950 non-ICU beds, of which 7,741 (86.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 437 (4.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 772 (8.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,320 ICU beds, of which 901 (68.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 158 (12.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 261 (19.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,910 non-ICU beds, of which 7,629 (85.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 451 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 830 (9.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,313 ICU beds, of which 855 (65.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 169 (12.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 289 (22.0%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 913.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 5.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 400.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.76% (or 3.33% excluding higher education).

Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 1,027 total cases, with a two-week case count of 27 cases, a daily incidence rate of 8.1 which is lower than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of green (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 57,203 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,898 and a two-week positive test count of 29, for a percent-positive rate of 1.53 which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 711,395 total cases, with a two-week case count of 19,049 cases, a daily incidence rate of 19.5 which is higher than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 26,237,920 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 797,465 and a two-week positive test count of 21,846, for a percent-positive rate of 2.74 which is lower than last week.

As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 105 would be coded gray (compared to 116 last week), 34 would be coded green (compared to 36 last week), and 167 would be coded yellow (compared to 163 last week).The remaining 45 towns would be coded red (compared to 36 last week): Adams, Agawam, Ayer, Berkley, Carver, Chicopee, Dalton, Dudley, East Longmeadow, Edgartown, Fall River, Freetown, Halifax, Hanson, Haverhill, Hull, Lakeville, Lawrence, Littleton, Ludlow, Lunenburg, Methuen, Monson, Nantucket, New Bedford, North Reading, Oak Bluffs, Palmer, Rehoboth, Revere, Saugus, Southwick, Springfield, Sterling, Taunton, Tisbury, Tyngsborough, Wareham, Warren, West Bridgewater, Westfield, Westminster, Westport, Wilmington, and Winchendon.

16 cities/towns would be newly coded red this week (Ayer, Dalton, East Longmeadow, Halifax, Hanson, Haverhill, Littleton, Lunenburg, North Reading, Saugus, Sterling, Wareham, Warren, West Bridgewater, Wilmington, and Winchendon) and 7 cities/towns would no longer be coded red this week (Dighton, Oxford, Pepperell, Rutland, Seekonk, Shirley, and Swansea).

Of the 10 towns near my church, one is coded gray (Boxborough), 3 are coded green (Acton, Berlin, and Stow), 6 are coded yellow (Bolton, Harvard, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, and Sudbury), and none are coded red.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Not happy that deaths are up day-over-day, but drops in cases and hospitalizations are definitely encouraging. (The raw numbers are still too high for my liking, though.) The seven-day averages are also a bit of a mixed bag, as those for cases and percent-positive are both down compared to yesterday, while those for deaths and hospitalizations are both up.

The weekly city and town numbers are much less encouraging. Granted, the state has long since stopped reporting risk color codes; however, they can still be calculated from available information, and those calculations aren't good news at all. The numbers of low-risk communities continue to drop, while those for moderate and high risk communities continue to climb; forty-five cities and towns meet the high-risk "red" criteria this week, up from thirty-six last week. From a personal standpoint, the fact that my town of Acton is still green is nice to see, but the number of towns served by my church that have lept to yellow status is really concerning. (And the fact that the town next door, Littleton, has once again jumped into the red zone is ... disquieting, shall I say?)


The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 17 active and 1,064 cumulative cases as of September 1. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

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