Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 4 newly reported confirmed deaths (8 less than yesterday - down 66.7%) for a total of 17,215 deaths, 825 newly reported confirmed cases (13 more than yesterday - up 1.6%) for a total of 642,036 cases, and 51,383 newly reported molecular tests (9,214 more than yesterday - up 21.9%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.71%, compared to 1.72% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 2.97%, compared to 3.00% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 28,043 (1,558 less than yesterday - down 5.3%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 351 and 140 newly reported probable cases (71 more than yesterday - up 102.9%) for a total of 42,594. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 4 new deaths for a total of 17,566 and 965 new cases for a total of 684,630. There were 628 COVID-19 patients in hospital (3 more than yesterday - up 0.5%), 158 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (4 more than yesterday - up 2.6%) and 93 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 less than yesterday - down 4.1%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 920.0 (101 less than yesterday - down 9.9%), 485% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 86.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.71% (0 less than yesterday - down 0.2%), 122% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 94% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 651.0 (10 less than yesterday - down 1.5%), 320% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 8.0 (1 less than yesterday - down 11.1%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 8.0 on 4/25/2021 and 96% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,050 non-ICU beds, of which 6,895 (76.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 470 (5.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,685 (18.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,368 ICU beds, of which 803 (58.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 158 (11.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 407 (29.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,043 non-ICU beds, of which 6,869 (76.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 471 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,703 (18.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,368 ICU beds, of which 806 (58.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 154 (11.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 408 (29.8%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,460.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 715.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.42% (or 4.21% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Mixed bag on day-to-day changes: newly reported cases are up, but newly reported deaths are down. The estimated active case count is down, but the number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is up. All four seven-day averages are down, both compared to yesterday and compared to two weeks ago.

While the state still has a stubbornly high daily incidence rate (20.1 daily new cases per 100k population, according to the latest from COVID Act Now), Governor Charlie Baker has decided things are better enough to announce a lot more in the way of reopening:

Governor Charlie Baker on Tuesday scaled back the state's mask mandate and unveiled a timeline for reopening Massachusetts that will gradually bring life back to normal for residents and businesses by Aug. 1.

Masks won't be required outdoors starting Friday, bars can reopen with restrictions on May 29, and crowds can swell to 25 percent capacity at Fenway Park and TD Garden next month, according to the plan. It was released on the same day the CDC eased its guidance on wearing masks outdoors, saying fully vaccinated Americans don't need to cover their faces anymore unless they are in a big crowd of strangers.

The proposed Massachusetts calendar, which Baker stressed is dependent on health trends, gives state residents a roadmap for a gradual return to pre-COVID life.

Effective Friday, face coverings in Massachusetts "will only be required outside in public when it is not possible to socially distance, and at other times required by sector-specific guidance," Baker's office said. "Face coverings will still be required at all times in indoor public places."

During a media briefing Tuesday, Baker cited the increasing number of vaccinated residents and better public health data as factors in the decision to loosen restrictions.

"Since March 22, when our last set of restrictions were lifted, the public health data has improved across the board," Baker said. "New daily cases have dropped by about 20 percent. The positivity rate of cases dropped by half a percentage point to 1.72 percent, one of the lowest levels we've seen since last summer."

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Starting May 10, officials said, stadiums like Fenway Park and TD Garden will be allowed to increase fan capacity from 12 percent to 25 percent. Also May 10, road races and other large, outdoor athletic events will be permitted with staggered starts, after organizers submit safety plans to local health boards or the state Department of Public Health.

"If you go to Fenway Park, whether you're vaccinated or not, we're going to expect you to wear a mask and socially distance. Period," Baker told reporters.

In addition, youth and adult amateur sports tournaments starting May 10 will be allowed for moderate and high-risk sports, according to the statement issued by Baker's office late Tuesday morning.

Further loosening of restrictions will happen May 29, when gathering limits will increase to 200 people indoors and 250 people outdoors for event venues, public settings, and private gatherings, provided that health and vaccination data supports the move, officials said.

Restaurant guidance will also be updated May 29 to eliminate the requirement that food be served with alcohol and to increase the maximum table size to 10, Baker's office said.

[ ... ]

Aug. 1 is also the tentative date that all industry restrictions will be lifted, and capacity can increase to 100 percent, officials said.

Baker said during the briefing that with more vaccines, the state hopes "we can take this step earlier, but it will depend on everyone continuing to get vaccinated and doing the right things."

Relaxing the outdoor mask mandate makes a lot of sense, especially given the new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:

NEW YORK (AP) — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention eased its guidelines Tuesday on the wearing of masks outdoors, saying fully vaccinated Americans don't need to cover their faces anymore unless they are in a big crowd of strangers.

And those who are unvaccinated can go outside without masks in some situations, too.

The new guidance represents another carefully calibrated step on the road back to normal from the coronavirus outbreak that has killed over 570,000 people in U.S.

For most of the past year, the CDC had been advising Americans to wear masks outdoors if they are within 6 feet of one another.

"Today, I hope, is a day when we can take another step back to the normalcy of before," CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said. "Over the past year, we have spent a lot of time telling Americans what you can't do. Today, I am going to tell you some of the things you can do, if you are fully vaccinated."

The change comes as more than half of U.S. adults — or about 140 million people — have received at least one dose of vaccine, and more than a third have been fully vaccinated.

Walensky said the decision was driven by rising vaccination numbers; declines in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths; and research showing that less than 10% of documented instances of transmission of the virus happened outdoors.

[ ... ]

The CDC, which has been cautious in its guidance during the crisis, essentially endorsed what many Americans have already been doing over the past several weeks.

The CDC says that whether they are fully vaccinated or not, people do not have to wear masks outdoors when they walk, bike or run alone or with members of their household. They can also go maskless in small outdoor gatherings with fully vaccinated people.

But unvaccinated people — defined as those who have yet to receive both doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or the one-shot Johnson & Johnson formula — should wear masks at small outdoor gatherings that include other unvaccinated people, the CDC says. They also should keep their faces covered when dining at outdoor restaurants with friends from multiple households.

And everyone, fully vaccinated or not, should keep wearing masks at crowded outdoor events such as concerts or sporting events, the CDC says.

The agency continues to recommend masks at indoor public places, such as hair salons, restaurants, shopping centers, gyms, museums and movie theaters, saying that is still the safer course even for vaccinated people.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 13 active and 951 cumulative cases as of April 26. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 4:45PM on April 13, 2021 reported 914 cumulative cases with 30 individuals in isolation, 852 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.