Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 5 newly reported confirmed deaths (4 more than yesterday - up 400.0%) for a total of 17,618 deaths, 68 newly reported confirmed cases (35 more than yesterday - up 106.1%) for a total of 663,400 cases, and 37,713 newly reported molecular tests (17,391 more than yesterday - up 85.6%). The seven day average positivity rate is 0.32%, compared to 0.34% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 0.42%, compared to 0.44% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 1,721 (117 less than yesterday - down 6.4%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 364 and zero newly reported probable cases (same as yesterday) for a total of 46,144. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 5 new deaths for a total of 17,982 and 68 new cases for a total of 709,544. There were 94 COVID-19 patients in hospital (9 less than yesterday - down 8.7%), 30 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (5 less than yesterday - down 14.3%) and 15 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 less than yesterday - down 11.8%).

Today being Wednesday, the weekly data points were also updated. The average age of hospitalized patients over the past week is 60 (1 more than last week - up 1.7%) while the average age of deaths over the last two weeks is 75 (same as last week). The fourteen-day average test turnaround time (from sample draw to DPH report) is 2.12 (compared to 1.79 last week). The average daily incidence per 100k population over the last 14 days is 1.2 (compared to 1.6 last week).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 52.0 (4 less than yesterday - down 7.1%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 52.0 on 6/22/2021 and 100.0% below the highest observed value of 6,237.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 0.32% (0 less than yesterday - down 6.5%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/22/2021 and 99% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 106.0 (4 less than yesterday - down 3.6%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 106.0 on 6/22/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 3.0 (same as yesterday), 0% above the lowest observed value of 3.0 on 6/20/2021 and 99% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,121 non-ICU beds, of which 7,979 (87.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 64 (0.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,078 (11.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,364 ICU beds, of which 955 (70.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 30 (2.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 379 (27.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,008 non-ICU beds, of which 7,570 (84.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 68 (1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,370 (15.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,339 ICU beds, of which 878 (65.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 35 (2.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 426 (31.8%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 109.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 4.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 187.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.55% (or 0.77% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Day-to-day newly reported deaths and cases are both up, but are also both still very low. Both the estimated active case count and the total COVID-19 patients in hospital count are not only down day-to-day but set new lows; the hospitalization count is below 100 for the first time since the state started reporting this number. All four seven-day averages are, once again, at their Lowest Observed Value.

The long-term downward trend in new cases is showing up in the fourteen-day average daily incidence, which at 1.2 average new daily confirmed cases per 100k population is the lowest it's been since the state started reporting that calculation back in October of 2020. The good folks at Covid Act Now, who use a seven-day average daily incidence per 100k population as one of the inputs to their risk coding, have Massachusetts at 1.0 daily new cases per 100k, good enough for a green, "low risk" coding (for the first time since the pandemic started). Only Vermont and the Mariana Islands have lower rates; Maryland is tied with Massachusetts.

So at the moment, things are looking pretty good locally. Nationally, though, six states (Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Nevada, Utah and New Mexico) have rising infection rates and below-average vaccination rates. Worse, the Delta variant of the SARS-COV-2 virus is rapidly growing in proportion nationwide:

The supercontagious Delta variant of the coronavirus is responsible for about 1 in 5 COVID-19 cases in the United States, and its prevalence has doubled in the last two weeks, heath officials said Tuesday.

First identified in India, Delta is one of several "variants of concern," as designated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. It has spread rapidly through India and Britain.

Its appearance in the United States is not surprising. And with vaccinations ticking up and COVID-19 case numbers falling, it's unclear how much of a problem Delta will cause here. Still, its swift rise has prompted concerns that it might jeopardize the nation's progress in beating back the pandemic.

[ ... ]

Delta, formerly known as B.1.617.2, is believed to be the most transmissible variant yet, spreading more easily than both the original strain of the virus and the Alpha variant first identified in Britain. Public health officials there have said that Delta could be 50% more contagious than Alpha, although estimates of its infectiousness vary.

Other evidence suggests that the variant may partially evade the antibodies made by the body after a coronavirus infection or vaccination. And the variant may render certain monoclonal antibody treatments less effective, the CDC notes.

Delta may also cause more severe illness. A recent Scottish study, for instance, found that people infected by the Delta variant were roughly twice as likely to be hospitalized than those infected with Alpha. But uncertainties remain, scientists said.

[ ... ]

Delta was first identified in the United States in ". Although Alpha remains the most prevalent variant here, Delta has spread quickly. In early April, Delta represented just 0.1% of cases in the United States, according to the CDC. By early May, Delta accounted for 1.3% of cases, and by early June, that figure had jumped to 9.5%. A few days ago, the estimate reached 20.6%, Fauci said at the briefing.

[ ... ]

"Fully immunized individuals should do well with this new phase of the epidemic," said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine. "However, the protection offered by a single dose appears low, and of course if you are not at all vaccinated, consider yourself at high risk."

Delta is likely to infect "large numbers" of unvaccinated people, he said.

More transmissible and more dangerous - unless you're fully vaccinated. Get your damn shot(s) ASAP, folks! (Assuming said shot(s) are available in your area, that is; I know other nations have much poorer vaccine availibility.)

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing zero active and 981 cumulative cases as of June 22. There have been no new cases shown on this dashboard since June 2. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.