Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 7 newly reported confirmed deaths (9 less than yesterday - down 56.2%) for a total of 17,266 deaths, 1,115 newly reported confirmed cases (64 less than yesterday - down 5.4%) for a total of 646,982 cases, and 99,287 newly reported molecular tests (15,039 more than yesterday - up 17.9%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.56%, compared to 1.65% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 2.62%, compared to 2.75% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 24,631 (843 less than yesterday - down 3.3%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 351 and 191 newly reported probable cases (35 more than yesterday - up 22.4%) for a total of 43,297. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 7 new deaths for a total of 17,617 and 1,306 new cases for a total of 690,279. There were 541 COVID-19 patients in hospital (18 less than yesterday - down 3.2%), 146 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (6 less than yesterday - down 3.9%) and 78 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than yesterday - down 1.3%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 865.0 (8 less than yesterday - down 0.9%), 450% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 87.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.56% (0 less than yesterday - down 5.3%), 103% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 94% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 601.0 (13 less than yesterday - down 2.1%), 287% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 85% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 9.0 (1 less than yesterday - down 10.0%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 9.0 on 4/17/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,227 non-ICU beds, of which 7,567 (82.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 395 (4.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,265 (13.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,390 ICU beds, of which 905 (65.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 146 (10.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 339 (24.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,228 non-ICU beds, of which 7,606 (82.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 407 (4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,215 (13.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,397 ICU beds, of which 901 (64.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 152 (10.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 344 (24.6%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,331.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 9.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 701.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.15% (or 3.67% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Good news across the board day-to-day, with deaths and cases down, tests up, estimated active cases down, hospitalizations down and all the seven-day averages also down. (There did appear to be some sort of glitch with the raw data file, as it wasn't available the first couple of times I tried to download it.)

In less-good news, everyone in Massachusetts over the age of 16 may now be eligible for COVID vaccines, but the demand is starting to drop off:

After months of Massachusetts residents enthusiastically rushing to get their COVID-19 shots, a stark reality is taking hold in the state's vaccine program: Most of the people who were eager to roll up their sleeves have already done so.

The state's peak day for inoculations was April 22, shortly after all remaining adults became eligible for shots on April 19. Daily injections have waned in the nine days since then.

Many vaccination sites report large drops in the number of shots they gave last week, especially for people receiving their first doses of the two-dose vaccine regimens. And some sites across the state say new appointments for the coming week have slowed, even as the volume of no-shows — people booking time slots but not arriving — has increased.

"We're definitely seeing a decline in the past week or so," said Dr. Alastair Bell, chief medical officer at Boston Medical Center, where the number of first doses dipped to about 800 a day last week from about 1,500 the previous week at its South End hospital and five satellite sites in Boston neighborhoods.

Some vaccination sites in Central and Western Massachusetts have seen demand decline just as dramatically.

"It's fallen off a cliff," said Aaron Michelucci, senior director of pharmacy services at Baystate Health in Springfield, who oversees Holyoke and Greenfield sites where the number of shots totaled 600 on Wednesday, down from 1,096 a week earlier. "Appointments had been filling within minutes, but we just opened up a week's worth and they're not going fast."

The new landscape is forcing vaccine providers to change their approach: They can't just open the doors and count on a line of people anymore. That would lead to continuing vaccination drop-offs, undermining efforts to subdue the viral menace.

Instead, vaccine providers are pivoting to a new phase where outreach will become their top priority, with more mobile sites popping up in hard-to-reach communities. Some operators with plenty of doses have opened walk-in clinics where no appointments are required for vaccine seekers.

Nationally, the number of doses administered daily has fallen more than 20 percent, from 3.3 million to 2.6 million, over the past two weeks. Many places, especially in the South but also in rural states such as New Hampshire, have already reached the tipping point where supply outstrips demand.

But in Massachusetts, where surveys show less vaccine hesitancy than most other states, some sites report demand, which has been strong, is just starting to soften.

Daily doses administered at three mass vaccination sites operated by CIC Health — at Hynes Convention Center and Reggie Lewis Center in Boston, and Gillette Stadium in Foxborough — peaked at 18,000 on April 23, including shots given by vaccinators at "pop-up" locations. Last week, daily totals dipped below 16,000, and appointments booked through the state's preregistration system are starting to slow.

"It used to be filled within seconds," said CIC Health president Rachel Wilson. "There's no doubt there's a slowing down."

In a telephone interview last week, Governor Charlie Baker said state officials are closely monitoring vaccination trends. But he said it may take several weeks to gauge whether residents who became eligible for shots on April 19, especially young people, are getting vaccinated at the same rates as older residents who lobbied for earlier access and registered for inoculations en masse as soon as they became eligible.

More than 2.5 million Massachusetts residents have been fully vaccinated, including three quarters of residents over 65. At the other end of the age spectrum, just 28 percent of 16- and 17-year-olds have gotten at least one shot; most have only been eligible for less than two weeks. The governor's goal is to fully vaccinate about 4.1 million residents, more than 70 percent of the state's adult population, by July 4.

Baker said Massachusetts remains on track to meet its target, but that will require a stepped-up push — not only by state officials, but by clergy, community leaders, and "hospital providers and the folks in white coats" — to persuade all eligible residents to get shots. In recent weeks, the state has launched a door-knocking campaign in neighborhoods and communities hardest hit by the coronavirus.

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State officials have been focusing education and outreach on vaccine-wary Black, Hispanic, and immigrant communities. But surveys show other pockets of vaccine resistance in rural areas, among political conservatives, and from newly eligible "young invincibles" who either don't trust the vaccine or don't think they'll get seriously ill if they're infected with COVID-19.

At vaccination sites in Central Massachusetts, "we're not seeing too many [vaccine seekers] over 18 and up to 25," said Olga Brown, vaccine program manager for the UMass Memorial Health system. "The majority of people are 30 and up."

Brown said the Worcester-based UMass system has registered a slight decline in shots administered at its standing and mobile sites. But a third of its first-dose shots are now available one day after an appointment is made. And the no-show rate has recently doubled from 3 to 6 percent.

Michelucci at Baystate Health said some younger people were vaccinated before April 19 because they were essential workers or had health conditions that qualified them for early shots. But, "you've got Gen Z's and millennials, and their acceptance rate is far lower" overall, he said. "We're heading into warmer weather, and many people are being flip about it. They feel they're going to be outside more so they don't need this."

The case rates are still way too high. Governor Baker originally was pushing the mass vaccination sites heavily, which worked great for folks who both (a) were highly motivated to get the vaccine and (b) had easy transportation to places like Gillette Stadium. Now that the (relatively) low-hanging fruit has been dealt with, we'll have to see if the state can successfully pivot to a more outreach-driven program.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 14 active and 959 cumulative cases as of May 1. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 6PM on April 27, 2021 reported 951 cumulative cases with 13 individuals in isolation, 906 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.