Local COVID-19 updates
Apr. 24th, 2021 06:10 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 12 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 less than yesterday - down 7.7%) for a total of 17,193 deaths, 1,386 newly reported confirmed cases (66 less than yesterday - down 4.5%) for a total of 639,314 cases, and 106,144 newly reported molecular tests (13,989 more than yesterday - up 15.2%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.89%, compared to 2.03% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.40%, compared to 3.62% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 29,717 (545 less than yesterday - down 1.8%). The state also reported 4 newly reported probable deaths (4 more than yesterday) for a total of 351 and 177 newly reported probable cases (8 more than yesterday - up 4.7%) for a total of 42,256. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 16 new deaths for a total of 17,544 and 1,563 new cases for a total of 681,570. There were 633 COVID-19 patients in hospital (11 less than yesterday - down 1.7%), 144 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (12 less than yesterday - down 7.7%) and 90 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 more than yesterday - up 1.1%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,013.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 0.1%), 545% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 84.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.89% (0 less than yesterday - down 7.0%), 145% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 677.0 (8 less than yesterday - down 1.2%), 336% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 83% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 9.0 (same as yesterday), 12% above the lowest observed value of 8.0 on 4/23/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,178 non-ICU beds, of which 7,406 (80.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 489 (5.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,283 (14.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,393 ICU beds, of which 893 (64.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 144 (10.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 356 (25.6%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,180 non-ICU beds, of which 7,527 (82.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 488 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,165 (12.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,395 ICU beds, of which 880 (63.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 156 (11.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 359 (25.7%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,444.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 11.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 718.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.30% (or 3.98% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
The day-by-day numbers today are for the most part trending in a good direction; deaths down, cases down, tests up, hospitalizations down. The estimated active cases count is down below 30,000 for the first time since March 27. The seven-day average case count ticked up slightly, but the seven-day average percent-positive rate dropped below two percent and the seven-day hospitalization rate also dropped. All the seven-day averages are comfortably below where they were two weeks ago, so that's good to see.
Of course, even these improving numbers still stink compared to the levels needed for a green "low risk" rating from the good folks at https://www.covidactnow.org/; their risk level metrics won't give you a green rating unless the daily incidence rate is below one average daily case per 100k population, the estimated infection rate is below 0.9 people each COVID-19 infected person spreads the virus to (on average), and a positive test rate below three percent. Massachusetts currently meets two of those three metrics (estimated infection rate and percent-positive); however, our daily incidence rate is 22.2, over twenty times that needed to consider things "on track for containment". We've got a long way to go.
And we may never get to the ideal of "no more COVID-19": As hopes rise for pandemic's close, some are preparing for never-ending COVID
Oh, joy. On the other hand, getting COVID-19 down to the same level of dangerousness as influenza would be a huge win. Perhaps mRNA technology can be used to make better flu shots, too?
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 19 active and 946 cumulative cases as of April 23. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 4:45PM on April 13, 2021 reported 914 cumulative cases with 30 individuals in isolation, 852 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,013.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 0.1%), 545% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 84.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.89% (0 less than yesterday - down 7.0%), 145% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 677.0 (8 less than yesterday - down 1.2%), 336% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 83% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 9.0 (same as yesterday), 12% above the lowest observed value of 8.0 on 4/23/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,178 non-ICU beds, of which 7,406 (80.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 489 (5.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,283 (14.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,393 ICU beds, of which 893 (64.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 144 (10.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 356 (25.6%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,180 non-ICU beds, of which 7,527 (82.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 488 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,165 (12.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,395 ICU beds, of which 880 (63.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 156 (11.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 359 (25.7%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,444.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 11.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 718.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.30% (or 3.98% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
The day-by-day numbers today are for the most part trending in a good direction; deaths down, cases down, tests up, hospitalizations down. The estimated active cases count is down below 30,000 for the first time since March 27. The seven-day average case count ticked up slightly, but the seven-day average percent-positive rate dropped below two percent and the seven-day hospitalization rate also dropped. All the seven-day averages are comfortably below where they were two weeks ago, so that's good to see.
Of course, even these improving numbers still stink compared to the levels needed for a green "low risk" rating from the good folks at https://www.covidactnow.org/; their risk level metrics won't give you a green rating unless the daily incidence rate is below one average daily case per 100k population, the estimated infection rate is below 0.9 people each COVID-19 infected person spreads the virus to (on average), and a positive test rate below three percent. Massachusetts currently meets two of those three metrics (estimated infection rate and percent-positive); however, our daily incidence rate is 22.2, over twenty times that needed to consider things "on track for containment". We've got a long way to go.
And we may never get to the ideal of "no more COVID-19": As hopes rise for pandemic's close, some are preparing for never-ending COVID
A pandemic-weary public is dreaming of Memorial Day barbecues, summer nights at Fenway Park, and putting the long-running curse of COVID-19 behind us.
But in the medical and biopharma worlds, many are eyeing a more daunting prospect: coronavirus as a never-ending threat.
Governments and private investors who once shunned vaccines as an unprofitable pharmaceutical backwater are pouring billions into venerable drug giants and upstart biotechs, including some in Massachusetts, seeking to develop longer-lasting vaccines.
The makers of three US-authorized vaccines — Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, and Johnson & Johnson — are testing COVID-19 booster shots to protect against more-contagious variants first detected in the United Kingdom, Brazil, and South Africa.
And hundreds of potential treatments and diagnostics are in the works as public health leaders brace for testing and tracing regimens far into the future.
[ ... ]
The growing conviction that scientists will be waging a permanent war on the virus, its variants, and similar pathogens yet to emerge stems partly from a recognition that bats and other animals harbor viruses that can be transmitted to humans and spread quickly around the planet. COVID-19 is widely believed to be such a "zoonotic disease," and there's no reason to think that the pattern won't repeat itself.
Meanwhile, the glacial pace of COVID-19 vaccinations in much of the world, the likelihood that immunity wanes over time, and the rise of more-resistant variants may leave millions vulnerable. Although makers of the three vaccines deployed in the United States hope they protect against the variants that have emerged so far, other mutations to the shape-shifting virus could produce more threatening forms.
Oh, joy. On the other hand, getting COVID-19 down to the same level of dangerousness as influenza would be a huge win. Perhaps mRNA technology can be used to make better flu shots, too?
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 19 active and 946 cumulative cases as of April 23. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 4:45PM on April 13, 2021 reported 914 cumulative cases with 30 individuals in isolation, 852 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.