Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 35 newly reported confirmed deaths (5 less than yesterday - down 12.5%) for a total of 16,746 deaths, 2,362 newly reported confirmed cases (61 more than yesterday - up 2.7%) for a total of 590,961 cases, and 108,411 newly reported molecular tests (818 more than yesterday - up 0.8%). The seven day average positivity rate is 2.35%, compared to 2.32% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 4.01%, compared to 3.98% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 29,806 (996 more than yesterday - up 3.5%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 340 and 208 newly reported probable cases (251 less than yesterday - down 54.7%) for a total of 36,595. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 35 new deaths for a total of 17,086 and 2,570 new cases for a total of 627,556. There were 654 COVID-19 patients in hospital (32 more than yesterday - up 5.1%), 143 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (4 more than yesterday - up 2.9%) and 86 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than yesterday - up 2.4%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,495.0 (91 more than yesterday - up 6.5%), 852% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 77.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.35% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.3%), 204% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 92% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 614.0 (8 more than yesterday - up 1.3%), 296% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 85% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 31.0 (same as yesterday), 181% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 83% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,203 non-ICU beds, of which 7,431 (80.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 511 (5.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,261 (13.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,395 ICU beds, of which 904 (64.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 143 (10.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 348 (24.9%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,191 non-ICU beds, of which 7,439 (80.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 483 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,269 (13.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,400 ICU beds, of which 882 (63.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 139 (9.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 379 (27.1%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,043.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 29.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 673.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.73% (or 2.98% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Day-to-day deaths are down, which is always good to see; newly reported cases are up again, though, which is not. In addition to the uptick in new cases, we have active cases up again, percent-positive up again, hospitalization counts all up again and all the seven-day averages either up or steady. Not to mention that the seven-day averages for cases, deaths and percent positive are all worse than they were two weeks ago.

At least I'm not the only one (a) noticing the upward case trends in Massachusetts and (b) wondering WTF the governor is up to. The front page of today's Boston Globe is full of warnings from epidemiologists:

Even as more and more people get vaccinations, Massachusetts is once again seeing its daily case counts of the coronavirus rise, with the average number of new infections at its highest since mid-February.

Massachusetts on Friday reported 2,301 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the seven-day average of daily cases to 1,796.7. The threat of a surge looms larger in some towns than in others: This week, the state listed 32 communities as high-risk for COVID-19, up from just 20 communities the week before.

"It is concerning," said Dr. David Hamer, an infectious disease expert at Boston University and physician at Boston Medical Center. "If this worsens, then the governor may need to move us back to an earlier phase of opening."

Public health experts pointed to a number of factors that could be driving infections: increased circulation of a more-contagious variant of the coronavirus; pandemic fatigue, and springtime optimism that have led the public to be less vigilant; and Governor Charlie Baker's continued loosening of public health guidelines.

Many epidemiologists have warned for weeks that these factors could combine to produce an uptick in cases. Now, with cases rising, they said it is clearer than ever that to avoid a surge, the state must exercise caution and resist the urge to let down our collective guard.

"This was predicted. ... And in my mind, this is all so unnecessary," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "It feels like the governor has just stopped listening to public health experts. And I appreciate that he's got to look at a broad swath of issues, but it still remains a public health problem."

"It's really a risky situation at this moment with these variants ... and I wish this was not the moment that the governor had decided to relax restrictions," Jha said.

The governor's office has repeatedly emphasized the state's victories in combating the pandemic. COVID-19 hospitalizations are down 19 percent since March 1, and 80 percent of people over the age of 75 have received at least one vaccine dose, Sarah Finlaw, Governor Baker's press secretary, said in a statement shared with the Globe on Friday. The state's overall vaccination rate is among the highest in the nation.

"This progress has enabled Massachusetts to take additional steps to safely reopen our economy and the Administration will continue to carefully monitor all public health data as the Commonwealth continues to move through the phased reopening process," Finlaw said.

[ ... ]

Experts agreed that high vaccination rates among the state's most vulnerable populations will go a long way toward preventing a dramatic increase in hospitalizations and deaths in the event of another surge.

"The patterns that we've been familiar with before are going to be different now that vaccinations have started going out," said Helen Jenkins, a BU epidemiologist. "What we hope to see is that the shape of the epidemic curve for cases starts to uncouple from the patterns we see in hospitalizations and deaths" as high-risk groups are protected, she said.

But experts said that preventing infections in all age groups remains a worthwhile, and even urgent, goal.

"If we have another surge, which we may be entering right now, we will still have a lot of hospitalizations, we will still have a lot of deaths," said Samuel Scarpino, a Northeastern University epidemiologist.

[ ... ]

Several experts expressed frustration at the recent increase in infections — and the state's continued relaxation of pandemic rules. While the state's vaccine rollout has been encouraging and a new normal is within our reach, they said, progress is a reason to practice caution for just a few weeks longer, rather than speed ahead.

"What we need to be focused on is getting out of this, getting to the new normal. And you know, we're just not there yet," Scarpino said. "But we could get there faster, with a lot fewer deaths and a lot fewer hospitalizations, if we hold off on all of this widespread reopening."

I gather the Globe couldn't get any direct comment from Governor Baker for that story (they did get a statement from the press secretary). So far, though, Baker seems to have decided that a daily incidence rate over 30 new cases per 100k population (per today's dashboard at https://www.covidactnow.org/) is a splendid thing to have, well worth reopening the TD Garden to fans. I disagree; but then, nobody elected me governor.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 22 active and 832 cumulative cases as of March 24, and apparently has not been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 2PM on March 19, 2021 reported 813 cumulative cases with 9 individuals in isolation, 772 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.