Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 12 newly reported confirmed deaths (31 less than yesterday - down 72.1%) for a total of 16,993 deaths, 1,566 newly reported confirmed cases (1,346 less than yesterday - down 46.2%) for a total of 609,533 cases, and 61,251 newly reported molecular tests (52,336 less than yesterday - down 46.1%). The seven day average positivity rate is 2.50%, compared to 2.36% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 4.16%, compared to 3.90% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 34,652 (515 less than yesterday - down 1.5%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 344 and 237 newly reported probable cases (161 more than yesterday - up 211.8%) for a total of 38,490. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 12 new deaths for a total of 17,337 and 1,803 new cases for a total of 648,023. There were 725 COVID-19 patients in hospital (18 more than yesterday - up 2.5%), 169 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (6 more than yesterday - up 3.7%) and 97 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 more than yesterday - up 4.3%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,479.0 (150 less than yesterday - down 9.2%), 842% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 77.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.50% (0 more than yesterday - up 6.1%), 224% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 91% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 708.0 (7 more than yesterday - up 1.0%), 356% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 82% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 22.0 (2 less than yesterday - down 8.3%), 100% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 88% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,119 non-ICU beds, of which 6,872 (75.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 556 (6.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,691 (18.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,382 ICU beds, of which 829 (60.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 169 (12.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 384 (27.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,038 non-ICU beds, of which 6,716 (74.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 544 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,778 (19.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,382 ICU beds, of which 838 (60.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 163 (11.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 381 (27.6%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,281.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 25.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 599.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.20% (or 3.72% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Day-to-day deaths and cases both down by a lot - great news, right? Yes and no; remember yesterday's report of 43 deaths and 2,912 cases covered two days worth of (weekend) data. The 12 deaths compare nicely to the 21.5 deaths that represent half of yesterday's number; the 1,566 newly reported cases are more than the 1,456 cases that represent half of yesterday's, which is not good. Hospitalizations are up as well, and that's not good. The day-over-day drop in the seven-day case average is good news; the jump in the seven-day percent-positive rate is not, and neither is the uptick in the seven-day hospitalization average.

The comparisons to two weeks ago remain bad, as the seven-day averages for cases, hospitalizations and percent-positive are all well above where they were two weeks ago; the averages for cases and percent-positive are also higher than they were four weeks ago. Overall, not good news.

Governor Charlie Baker got his first dose of the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine this afternoon:

Governor Charlie Baker received the COVID-19 vaccine Tuesday afternoon at the mass vaccination site at the Hynes Convention Center in Boston and said the state's outpacing national averages for vaccinating vulnerable residents including seniors and communities of color.

The Republican governor shortly after 2:30 p.m. removed his blazer, rolled up the right sleeve on his golf shirt and got his first jab in his right shoulder. His second shot is slated for the end of the month.

"I pre-registered, was notified last week that I was now eligible to make an appointment, and I did," Baker told reporters during a later briefing. "And so far, I feel great." He described the vaccine as "a critical tool to help end the pandemic."

Baker, 64, has steadfastly said he would not jump to the front of the vaccination line, but would instead wait until he met the CDC guidelines on who qualifies for the potentially life-saving shot.

People 55 years old and older are currently eligible for vaccinations, according to the state.

The Hynes site is operated by CIC Health, which has said it expects to provide the two-shot Pfizer vaccine in most cases. Baker confirmed during the briefing that he received the Pfizer shot.

He also said that 82 percent of Massachusetts residents 75 and older have received their first dose, compared to the national average of 76 percent. And, he said, 24 percent of Black residents and 16 percent of Latino residents have received their first dose, which he indicated is about double the national averages for those groups.

[ ... ]

Baker said the vaccine rollout has cut down on the number of elderly residents facing severe health outcomes from contracting the virus.

"Just look at what's happened, the case counts [and] the hospitalizations among those over the age of 75," Baker said. "Just go back to January. ... If you just look at the data from January forward, the number of people over the age of 75 in Massachusetts who are testing positive has dropped like a rock, and the number of people who have ended up in the hospital has also dropped like a rock. And that same period of time has been the period of time when, for the most part, we focused on those people who we were most concerned about: the most vulnerable and the most senior among us."

Now more younger people are getting sick, he said.

"If you talk to the folks in the hospital community, they're thrilled that they aren't seeing as many older folks as they used to see," Baker said. "But they will definitely tell you that they are seeing younger people, folks in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, in the hospital. And this is not the time for people to let down their guard. People should still pay attention to the rules."

Glad to hear that he got the shot. But I really do wish there was any indication that he's taking the uptick in cases seriously, rather than just focusing on vaccinations, vaccinations and more vaccinations.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 28 active and 876 cumulative cases as of April 5. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 1:30PM on April 3, 2021 reported 871 cumulative cases with 38 individuals in isolation, 801 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.