Local COVID-19 updates
Mar. 19th, 2021 06:39 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 43 newly reported confirmed deaths (16 more than yesterday - up 59.3%) for a total of 16,469 deaths, 1,887 newly reported confirmed cases (30 more than yesterday - up 1.6%) for a total of 576,022 cases, and 106,772 newly reported molecular tests (78 less than yesterday - down 0.1%). The seven day average positivity rate is 2.01%, compared to 1.93% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.51%, compared to 3.41% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 25,986 (356 more than yesterday - up 1.4%). The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 more than yesterday) for a total of 334 and 276 newly reported probable cases (192 more than yesterday - up 228.6%) for a total of 34,459. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 44 new deaths for a total of 16,803 and 2,163 new cases for a total of 610,481. There were 586 COVID-19 patients in hospital (6 less than yesterday - down 1.0%), 157 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (7 less than yesterday - down 4.3%) and 92 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (6 less than yesterday - down 6.1%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,176.0 (46 more than yesterday - up 4.1%), 649% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 82.0% below the highest observed value of 6,240.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.01% (0 more than yesterday - up 4.2%), 161% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 620.0 (12 less than yesterday - down 1.9%), 300% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 27.0 (same as yesterday), 145% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 85% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,183 non-ICU beds, of which 7,356 (80.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 429 (4.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,398 (15.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,405 ICU beds, of which 885 (63.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 157 (11.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 363 (25.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,167 non-ICU beds, of which 7,291 (79.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 428 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,448 (15.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,411 ICU beds, of which 887 (62.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 164 (11.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 360 (25.5%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,055.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 37.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 766.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.82% (or 3.08% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
The day-to-day changes aren't good; newly reported deaths, cases and percent-positive rate are all up. In fact, that seven-day average percent positive rate is over two percent for the first time since February 21. Yes, the hospitalization counts are down, but those rising case rates bode ill for the future.
The front page of today's Boston Globe had the banner headline Warning: It's not over:
If anything, the Globe story is underestimating the situation here in Massachusetts, where the last three days have seen well over the fifteen hundred new cases mentioned in the second paragraph. The folks at https://www.covidactnow.org/ currently list Massachusetts as having the seventh-highest number of new daily new cases per 100,000 population, at 23.3 per 100k; that's not what I'd call progress, since Michigan and Delaware have moved into the 25-75 cases per 100k very high risk level, and Connecticut has moved up almost that high. Massachusetts isn't that high - yet.
But apparently that's not enough to worry Governor Charlie Baker, who last I heard is still planning to move to Phase 4 of the reopening plan on Monday.
At least we've still got room in the hospitals and ICUs. For now.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 18 active and 813 cumulative cases as of March 18. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 2PM on March 19, 2021 reported 813 cumulative cases with 9 individuals in isolation, 772 persons recovered and 32 fatalities; that's 22 more cumulative cases, 31 more persons recovered and (thankfully) no more fatalities than the previous report at 10PM on March 10.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,176.0 (46 more than yesterday - up 4.1%), 649% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 82.0% below the highest observed value of 6,240.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.01% (0 more than yesterday - up 4.2%), 161% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 620.0 (12 less than yesterday - down 1.9%), 300% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 27.0 (same as yesterday), 145% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 85% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,183 non-ICU beds, of which 7,356 (80.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 429 (4.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,398 (15.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,405 ICU beds, of which 885 (63.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 157 (11.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 363 (25.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,167 non-ICU beds, of which 7,291 (79.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 428 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,448 (15.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,411 ICU beds, of which 887 (62.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 164 (11.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 360 (25.5%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,055.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 37.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 766.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.82% (or 3.08% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
The day-to-day changes aren't good; newly reported deaths, cases and percent-positive rate are all up. In fact, that seven-day average percent positive rate is over two percent for the first time since February 21. Yes, the hospitalization counts are down, but those rising case rates bode ill for the future.
The front page of today's Boston Globe had the banner headline Warning: It's not over:
Massachusetts is entering spring on a hopeful note. The state earlier this week released its plan to open vaccination eligibility to all adults on April 19, and a few sunny, warm days have begun to coax residents out of their homes and winter coats.
But beneath the air of optimism lies a problem, epidemiologists caution: COVID-19 cases, after declining sharply in early February, have plateaued at an average of 1,500 per day, and the threat of another surge remains.
"I think we're just in a race against time to vaccinate people," said Helen Jenkins, a Boston University epidemiologist. "I definitely am concerned that we could see things start to tick up."
After January highs of 5,000-plus cases per day, the current coronavirus outlook represents a dramatic improvement. But at the same time, with more contagious variants of the virus circulating in the state and the vaccine rollout still far from complete, experts say stalled progress is a concern. Several urged the state to slow or stop its reopening plans — set to advance to Phase 4, Step 1 on Monday — until more people have been protected and transmission slows.
"I do have concerns about moving to Phase 4, that that will just help encourage [spread]," Jenkins said of the move, which will raise capacity limits at some businesses and allow more in-person activities to resume, including attending entertainment venues and gathering on wedding dance floors. "I do think that we need to be very cautious because of new variants."
In a statement Thursday, the Baker administration cited public health metrics "continuing to trend in a positive direction" in its decision to move the state into Phase 4, noting that hospitalizations have dropped by 20 percent and deaths by 24 percent since March 1. Baker also said Wednesday that he's confident more than 4 million Massachusetts adults will be vaccinated by July 4.
If anything, the Globe story is underestimating the situation here in Massachusetts, where the last three days have seen well over the fifteen hundred new cases mentioned in the second paragraph. The folks at https://www.covidactnow.org/ currently list Massachusetts as having the seventh-highest number of new daily new cases per 100,000 population, at 23.3 per 100k; that's not what I'd call progress, since Michigan and Delaware have moved into the 25-75 cases per 100k very high risk level, and Connecticut has moved up almost that high. Massachusetts isn't that high - yet.
But apparently that's not enough to worry Governor Charlie Baker, who last I heard is still planning to move to Phase 4 of the reopening plan on Monday.
At least we've still got room in the hospitals and ICUs. For now.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 18 active and 813 cumulative cases as of March 18. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 2PM on March 19, 2021 reported 813 cumulative cases with 9 individuals in isolation, 772 persons recovered and 32 fatalities; that's 22 more cumulative cases, 31 more persons recovered and (thankfully) no more fatalities than the previous report at 10PM on March 10.