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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 25 newly reported confirmed deaths (17 less than yesterday - down 40.5%) for a total of 15,992 deaths, 1,677 newly reported confirmed cases (267 more than yesterday - up 18.9%) for a total of 556,307 cases, and 106,263 newly reported molecular tests (3,901 more than yesterday - up 3.8%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.82%, compared to 1.75% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.08%, compared to 2.99% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 27,382 (381 less than yesterday - down 1.4%). The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 less than yesterday - down 50.0%) for a total of 330 and 222 newly reported probable cases (65 more than yesterday - up 41.4%) for a total of 31,902. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 26 new deaths for a total of 16,322 and 1,899 new cases for a total of 588,209. There were 716 COVID-19 patients in hospital (25 less than yesterday - down 3.4%), 180 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (12 more than yesterday - up 7.1%) and 109 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (9 more than yesterday - up 9.0%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,055.0 (15 more than yesterday - up 1.4%), 571% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 84.0% below the highest observed value of 6,242.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.82% (0 more than yesterday - up 4.0%), 136% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 766.0 (17 less than yesterday - down 2.2%), 394% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 81% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 37.0 (3 less than yesterday - down 7.5%), 236% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 79% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,190 non-ICU beds, of which 7,150 (77.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 536 (5.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,504 (16.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,420 ICU beds, of which 887 (62.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 180 (12.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 353 (24.9%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,200 non-ICU beds, of which 7,291 (79.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 573 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,336 (14.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,420 ICU beds, of which 890 (62.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 168 (11.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 362 (25.5%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,141.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 44.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,101.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.10% (or 3.58% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Day-to-day deaths down (always good) but cases up (not good); tests are also up, but by much less proportionately than cases. That might explain why the positivity rate is up; that's never good, even if the absolute value is still nice and low. Overall hospitalizations are down, but ICU and ventilator populations are up, and that's not great either. All in all, not a particularly great set of numbers to go into the weekend with.

Something I learned today, courtesy of this front-page story in today's Boston Globe: Massachusetts has been working on a mass-vaccination plan (based on public health departments) for the past two decades, only to throw the plan away in favor of outsourcing the effort once COVID-19 hit:
Massachusetts spent nearly two decades and millions of dollars planning how it would mobilize its vast network of local public health departments to respond in an emergency situation.

But just days after federal drug regulators authorized the first COVID-19 vaccine in mid-December, the state abandoned its blueprint and instead entrusted a handful of private companies with running its mass vaccination sites.

One company — Curative, a barely year-old California startup that's scaling testing across the country — was introduced to the state's pandemic response team on Dec. 15 in an informal, three-sentence e-mail from a senior adviser at Partners in Health. Days later, CIC Health, a newly formed company working with the state on testing, expressed interest in quarterbacking a Massachusetts vaccination effort.

And within weeks, those two private entities, along with a third, were awarded no-bid contracts to undertake perhaps one of the state's most pressing, ambitious initiatives in modern times.

In issuing the contracts, the state sidestepped the planning infrastructure it built in response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the anthrax-letter scare in 2001. The goal then: Prepare for an unseen, major health catastrophe, which could require mass vaccinations.

"We have been talking about this for 20 years ... the state has invested in this," Dartmouth public health director Christopher Michaud said. "They took the playbook, threw it in the dumpster, and privatized the whole thing."

The blueprint laid out a regional approach for corralling the state's 351 local health departments in an emergency, and a recent, updated status report on the playbook shows the groups were equipped with detailed plans for how to open and operate vaccination sites.

[ ... ]

"We need mass vaccination sites, I don't think anyone is denying that," said Sigalle Reiss, president of the Massachusetts Health Officers Association and Norwood's health director. "But the state's plan tells me they don't understand public health, and how to get people vaccinated, you have to go local."

Christine Bongiorno, the director of health and human services in Arlington, said she and other leaders from the Greater Boston area were taken aback. They have "a lot of frustrated volunteers sitting around saying, 'Why aren't you calling us? We're here.' "

In Dartmouth, municipal officials launched a vaccination site at Dartmouth High School, following the protocol spelled out in its several emergency planning binders. But with limited vaccine supply, it could only run one-off, one-day clinics, although still vaccinating roughly 1,000 people at a time.

Just 4 miles away, the state helped Curative launch a mass vaccination site at a former Circuit City store, with little coordination between the company and Dartmouth officials. That site is expected to deliver 1,500 shots a day.

Senator Jo Comerford, chair of the joint committee on public health, asked the Baker administration for copies of all of its vaccine vendor contracts at an oversight hearing last week. She said she wanted to "better understand quality control measures embedded in these contracts" and how the state is overseeing them.

"I don't have a sense of how they determined the need for a particular service," she said. "I want to know how [the vendors] are being overseen."

Follow the money, I guess.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 16 active and 775 cumulative cases as of March 2, and has apparently not been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 5PM on February 26, 2021 reported 766 cumulative cases with 27 individuals in isolation, 707 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.

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Edmund Schweppe

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