Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 75 newly reported confirmed deaths (5 less than yesterday - down 6.2%) for a total of 13,777 deaths, 4,330 newly reported confirmed cases (605 less than yesterday - down 12.3%) for a total of 472,175 cases, and 112,391 newly reported molecular tests (6,623 more than yesterday - up 6.3%). The seven day average positivity rate is 5.17%, compared to 5.51% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 6.69%, compared to 7.10% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 92,193 (2,760 more than yesterday - up 3.1%). The state also reported 2 newly reported probable deaths (1 more than yesterday - up 100.0%) for a total of 287 and 311 newly reported probable cases (26 less than yesterday - down 7.7%) for a total of 23,918. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 77 new deaths for a total of 14,064 and 4,641 new cases for a total of 496,093. There were 2,055 COVID-19 patients in hospital (43 less than yesterday - down 2.0%), 418 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (8 less than yesterday - down 1.9%) and 291 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (9 more than yesterday - up 3.2%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,950.0 (16 less than yesterday - down 0.5%), 1,778% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 53.0% below the highest observed value of 6,235.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 5.17% (0 less than yesterday - down 6.2%), 571% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 81% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,162.0 (18 less than yesterday - down 0.8%), 1,294% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 45% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 61.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 3.4%), 454% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 66% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,252 non-ICU beds, of which 6,457 (69.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,637 (17.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,158 (12.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,480 ICU beds, of which 792 (53.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 418 (28.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 270 (18.2%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,251 non-ICU beds, of which 6,548 (70.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,672 (18%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,031 (11.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,501 ICU beds, of which 780 (52.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 426 (28.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 295 (19.7%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 4,672.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 64.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,343.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.35% (or 8.55% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

I'm glad to see day-to-day drops in deaths, cases, percent-positive and hospitalizations; I'll be even gladder if downward trends continue past the weekend (with its typical reporting lags). On the other hand, I'm less happy that the total estimated active case count jumped upward. On the gripping hand, I can see a noticeable drop in the virus signal in the MWRA wastewater testing data over the last couple of days; hopefully that's a sign that maybe, just maybe, we're past the worst of that holiday surge?

In much less happy news, Massachusetts is doing much worse than most of the rest of the US at getting vaccines into arms, with just over five percent of the population having gotten even a first shot:

Six weeks after the first COVID-19 vaccines were authorized for emergency use, Massachusetts — celebrated as a national health care leader — ranks in the bottom half of US states in getting injections into the arms of its residents.

Massachusetts trails every other New England state, as well as New York, in the number of vaccine doses administered per capita, according to federal figures. Less than 5.4 percent of Massachusetts residents had been inoculated as of Friday, compared to 8 percent of residents in Connecticut, over 10 percent in West Virginia, and 11 percent in Alaska.

A Globe review suggests that a combination of technical problems, unexpected rates of resistance by health workers to taking the vaccine, and policy choices — including a decision to start vaccinating nursing home workers and staff a week later than four other New England states — conspired to set Massachusetts back coming out of the gate.

And there are warning signs that the state could face more logistical obstacles as the vaccination campaign moves to much larger populations starting in February. Unlike some other states, Massachusetts has no central place where people can sign up for injections, confusing and frustrating a growing number of residents hoping to be immunized against the raging virus. By contrast, New Mexico launched a website in December that allows its residents to preregister for a vaccine and alerts them when an opening is available.

It's clear that vaccinating 5.8 million adult residents in the midst of a crippling pandemic is one of the most challenging assignments that Massachusetts officials have ever faced. And the federal government has made the task harder with its lack of guidance and unpredictable allocations and shipments.

But every other state faces similar hurdles, and Massachusetts' highly rated hospitals — accounting for two thirds of all doses thus far administered — have struggled to efficiently schedule shots and make sure no doses go unused. Only about 43 percent of doses shipped to Massachusetts have been administered, federal data show. Even at Mass General Brigham, the state's largest hospital system, which has used 79 percent of its doses, nearly 13,500 doses were sitting on freezer shelves last week.

[ ... ]

Governor Charlie Baker unveiled several steps last week to speed up injections, including plans to launch a second mass vaccination site at Fenway Park, slated to open Feb. 1, in addition to the one now operating at Gillette Stadium. The state also expanded its network of local injection sites to more than 150, and said CVS and Walgreens — pharmacies that run vaccine clinics at long-term care sites — eventually will stock vaccines at retail outlets for the general public.

"The Commonwealth will keep opening more sites in all regions of the state to make sure that everybody has access to a site that's convenient to them," Baker said Thursday.

His complex three-phase vaccination plan, developed with health leaders, does not lay out specific targets for the number of vaccine doses to be administered in January and coming months. State officials say that hinges on factors outside their control, such as federal orders for shipments, but the lack of specific goals makes measuring the program's progress difficult.

[ ... ]

The rollout in Massachusetts fell behind from the start. Other states, including Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and Connecticut began vaccinating nursing home residents and staff a week before Massachusetts started on Dec. 28. Since then, both of the required rounds of doses have been given at nursing homes in other New England states. In Massachusetts, which has one of the nation's highest virus death rates in long-term care, most nursing homes have just completed their first round.

Christine Finley, immunization program director at Vermont's Department of Health, said states choosing to start Dec. 21, the earliest authorized date, had to commit to channeling a substantial share of their first vaccine allotment to long-term care sites. "Our state's priority has been vaccinating people in long-term care and other at-risk older adults," she said.

New Hampshire, similarly, raced to activate its nursing home vaccine program "as soon as it was ready to go," said Jack Leon, spokesman for the state's Department of Health and Human Services. "Because long-term care facilities in New Hampshire have been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic, making vaccines accessible to residents and staff as quickly as possible was our highest priority," he said.

In Massachusetts, the first shipment of vaccines went to front-line health workers at hospitals who were grappling with a second surge of COVID-19 patients. Protecting hospital staff was the Baker administration's top goal, just as it was during the first surge last spring, when hospitals got more tests and protective equipment despite hundreds of outbreaks — and thousands of deaths — in long-term care sites.

[ ... ]

Across the country, states are encountering a slower-than-expected rollout in hospitals, said Claire Hannan, executive director of the Association of Immunization Managers, a national trade group that works on vaccination issues.

"We really thought the way to go was to distribute it in hospitals, because they can handle ultra-cold storage of vaccines," Hannan said. "But we're seeing it's not getting into arms as fast as possible, and now states are adjusting with a move toward more large-scale vaccination sites."

But, as Massachusetts moves toward large-scale public vaccinations, local officials face a pressing technical challenge of their own: updating the antiquated and often paper-based method that local health departments have long used for transmitting data for flu vaccinations and other critical health data to the state.

The Baker administration purchased a software system designed to modernize and streamline the process for hundreds of communities. Local health directors say they were repeatedly told it would be in place last fall so they could use it in their annual flu vaccination clinics as a dress rehearsal for upcoming COVID vaccinations.

"It was frustrating because we were told, 'It is coming, it is coming,' but it didn't come," said Ruth Mori, a nurse in Wayland's health department and president of the Massachusetts Association of Public Health Nurses.

The software for local health departments was finally provided in early January, just days before they had to launch their vaccination clinics for first responders.

Mori and other health directors say the system, called PrepMod, has made a significant difference in speeding up the process of recording vaccinations and transmitting the data to the state. But local officials say they must still file paper reports to the state each time they move vaccines from one site to another.

Way to go, Governor. Spectacular leadership, there. </sarcasm>

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 47 active and 652 cumulative cases as of January 22. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 10:30PM on January 13, 2021 reported 596 cumulative cases with 62 individuals in isolation, 504 persons recovered and 30 fatalities.

Comments

[anne]

Governor Health-Care Executive! I hope somebody good runs in '22.