Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 80 newly reported confirmed deaths (5 more than yesterday - up 6.7%) for a total of 13,702 deaths, 4,935 newly reported confirmed cases (114 more than yesterday - up 2.4%) for a total of 467,845 cases, and 105,768 newly reported molecular tests (5,958 less than yesterday - down 5.3%). The seven day average positivity rate is 5.51%, compared to 5.57% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 7.10%, compared to 7.10% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 89,433 (504 more than yesterday - up 0.6%). The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 less than yesterday - down 50.0%) for a total of 285 and 337 newly reported probable cases (18 more than yesterday - up 5.6%) for a total of 23,607. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 81 new deaths for a total of 13,987 and 5,272 new cases for a total of 491,452. There were 2,098 COVID-19 patients in hospital (54 less than yesterday - down 2.5%), 426 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (4 less than yesterday - down 0.9%) and 282 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (5 less than yesterday - down 1.7%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,966.0 (12 less than yesterday - down 0.4%), 1,789% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 53.0% below the highest observed value of 6,235.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 5.51% (0 less than yesterday - down 1.0%), 615% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 80% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,180.0 (16 less than yesterday - down 0.7%), 1,306% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 44% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 59.0 (1 less than yesterday - down 1.7%), 436% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 67% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,251 non-ICU beds, of which 6,548 (70.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,672 (18.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,031 (11.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,501 ICU beds, of which 780 (52.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 426 (28.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 295 (19.7%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,273 non-ICU beds, of which 6,470 (69.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,722 (19%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,081 (11.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,490 ICU beds, of which 795 (53.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 430 (28.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 265 (17.8%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,863.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 63.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,347.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.49% (or 8.71% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Mixed bag of day-to-day changes - newly reported deaths and cases both up, but the positivity rate and hospitalization counts are all down. Estimated active cases are ticking up again. The seven-day trends are all down by slight amounts, which is nice to see.

But are things so much better that we can say Massachusetts has passed the peak of the second surge? The Boston Globe asked a bunch of health experts, and got a very mixed bag of answers:

Governor Charlie Baker on Thursday announced the loosening of some of the state's coronavirus restrictions, citing improvement in the public health statistics.

So have we passed the peak of the state's second surge? Or is that too optimistic a view, considering that a highly transmissible new variant has arrived in the state?

And is now the right time to roll back restrictions, even modestly?

"No," said Dr. Alysse Wurcel, an infectious disease physician at Tufts Medical Center, in a phone interview Friday.

Wurcel stressed that she's not privy to all the data the Baker administration has and acknowledged there are economic and psychological factors to consider when it comes to assessing restrictions. However, she said, easing them now "is a little bit of signal to the community that the end is closer than it really is."

Wurcel compared the restriction rollback to a radio broadcaster telling the public roads are clear during a snowstorm.

"The roads are really not safe for driving yet," she said. "This is a blizzard. People are still dying."

[ ... ]

Samuel Scarpino, an epidemiologist at Northeastern University, also expressed concerns about the restriction rollback Friday when reached by email.

"Although I agree with the [governor] that the indicators are headed in a better direction, we are in a really precarious situation with respect to hospitalizations," Scarpino wrote, adding that Baker's move "to relax measures sends the wrong message. It communicates that things are safer, which is not the case. Things are finally headed in a safer direction, but we need to stay on this trajectory for a few weeks until the hospitalization numbers come way down. In addition, given our inadequate surveillance for variants, we also have to be prepared and ready to respond quickly if B117 or other variants of concern show up and start altering the trajectory."

Others believe the curfew rollbacks announced Thursday will not prompt numbers to climb. Dr. Ranu Dhillon, an epidemic response specialist at Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, said he doesn't think lifting the restrictions will cause a spike in virus transmission, which continues to be driven mainly by indoor and large outdoor gatherings.

The capacity restrictions that remain in place at stores and restaurants, he said, are "critical factors" that would appear to make lifting the curfew relatively safe.

He emphasized, however, that indoor dining remains a "high-risk activity," and that state officials should continue to monitor public health data when considering the impact of lifting the curfew.

"It will be important to see how transmission goes in the next few weeks," Dhillon said. "There can be an uptick for reasons that have nothing to do with the curfew — colder weather, people staying indoors more. It's important to see this as a step-wise process."

Before further steps are taken in the direction of reopening, he said, the state must see "sustained improvement in reducing transmission, especially with the variants in place," which should prompt people to remain "extra cautious."

[ ... ]

Asked Friday if he felt lifting the restrictions was a wise move, Dr. Abraar Karan, a global health and internal medicine physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital, said via email that people should continue to proceed cautiously.

"While the downward trend in cases, hospitalizations [and] deaths is encouraging, we need to have two main focus points right now — vaccinations [and] slowing the spread," wrote Karan, who also conducts COVID-19 research for the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response. "In terms of the latter, we must discourage people from high risk scenarios — indoor dining is one of those because masks are off [and] there is close face to face contact."

While curfews are being lifted on businesses, Karan wrote, "it is important that people don't take this to mean that these are suddenly 'safe'; safety should be thought of as a continuum of risk, not a binary light switch. Also — as restrictions are eased, we need to make sure that we are able to detect new outbreaks and stop them quickly. With all of our attention on vaccinating right now, we don't want to strain our public health capacity even more with uncontrolled spread, especially given more transmissible variants."

I can absolutely see why Governor Baker wants to cut business restrictions as fast as he dares; the economic impact of keeping people physically separated has been terrible. But so has the death toll of the last year, not to mention the long-term health impacts on the survivors. And, looking at what the state is reporting over the last several weeks - we ain't there yet, and lifting restrictions right now seems premature to me.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 42 active and 652 cumulative cases as of January 21. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 10:30PM on January 13, 2021 reported 596 cumulative cases with 62 individuals in isolation, 504 persons recovered and 30 fatalities.