Oct. 24th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 8 newly reported confirmed deaths (11 less than yesterday - down 57.9%) for a total of 9,616 deaths, 1,128 newly reported confirmed cases (160 more than yesterday - up 16.5%) for a total of 146,023 cases, and 19,168 new patients tested by molecular tests (3,407 more than yesterday - up 21.6%) for a total of 2,615,142 individuals tested. There were 70,021 new molecular tests reported (4,061 less than yesterday - down 5.5%) with a total of 5,585,169 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 5.9%, compared to 6.1% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as yesterday) for a total of 223 deaths, and 75 newly reported probable cases (27 less than yesterday - down 26.5%) for a total of 3,465 cases. The state also reported 240 patients tested by antibody tests (41 less than yesterday - down 14.6%) for a total of 125,639 patients, and 1,965 patients tested by antigen tests (16 less than yesterday - down 0.8%) for a total of 173,868 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 9 new deaths for a total of 9,839 and 1,203 new cases for a total of 149,488.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 874.3 compared to 615.0 last week (up 42.2%) and 540.6 two weeks ago (up 61.7%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 16.1 compared to 18.7 last week (down 13.7%) and 11.4 two weeks ago (up 41.2%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 16,585.3 compared to 14,784.7 last week (up 12.2%) and 15,418.1 two weeks ago (up 7.6%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 5.3% compared to 4.2% last week and 3.5% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.5%, 93% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 547, 81% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 4, 4 above the lowest observed value of 0 on October 18. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 19, 104% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

Bad. Not sure how else to describe this. Day-to-day, confirmed deaths are down (which is always good), but confirmed cases are up above one thousand for the first time since May 24 and are at the highest level since May 16 (when the state reported 1,512 new cases). We did have proportionately more newly tested people, but the total number of tests dropped compared to yesterday. The seven-day average case counts are continuing to climb to terrible levels, and the state's "key metrics" are all well above the lowest observed values. Things are just not going in good directions, and winter is coming.

I haven't seen any reporting yet on what reaction, if any, Governor Baker has had to these numbers. As I noted above, the last time we had case counts this high was on May 16, when the state was still under the March 23 lockdown orders. The "Reopening Massachusetts" report wasn't issued until May 18.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 6:25PM on October 21, the town of Acton reported 224 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 8 individuals in isolation, 194 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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