Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today (Thursday, September 14, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 19 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 more than last week - up 5.6%) for a total of 22,797 confirmed deaths. There were 3 newly reported probable deaths (1 more than last week - up 50.0%) for a total of 2,061 probable deaths. In total, 22 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (2 more than last week - up 10.0%) for a total of 24,858 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 2,700 newly reported confirmed cases (422 more than last week - up 18.5%) for a total of 2,060,152 confirmed cases. There were 1,123 newly reported probable cases (223 more than last week - up 24.8%) for a total of 212,276 probable cases. In total, 3,823 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (645 more than last week - up 20.3%) for a total of 2,272,428 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 23,365 new molecular tests (3,506 more than last week - up 17.7%) for a total of 50,416,970. The seven-day average positivity rate is 11.74%, compared to 12.07% last week. There are currently 353 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (26 less than last week - down 6.9%), 19 COVID patients are in ICUs (13 less than last week - down 40.6%), and 8 COVID patients are intubated (3 less than last week - down 27.3%). Over the last seven days, there were 477 new hospitalizations (5 more than last week - up 1.1%), which is a rate of 6.79 hospitalizations per 100k population (0.1 more than last week - up 1.1%). Under CDC's current definitions, the current COVID-19 hospital admissions level statewide is Low, compared to Low last week.

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 310.7 (41.4 more than last week - up 15.4%), 384.4% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 98.7% below the highest observed value of 23,246.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 11.74% (0.33 less than last week - down 2.8%), 3,714.5% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 57.6% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 392.3 (18.9 more than last week - up 5.0%), 365.4% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 89.9% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 2.0 (0.1 more than last week - up 7.7%), 600.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.3 on 8/5/2023 and 98.9% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 2,889.9 (438.4 more than last week - up 17.9%), 51.8% above the lowest observed value of 1,903.6 on 7/8/2023 and 97.4% below the highest observed value of 110,430.9 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,618 non-ICU beds, of which 7,619 (88.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 334 (3.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 665 (7.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,187 ICU beds, of which 942 (79.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 19 (1.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 226 (19.0%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,479 non-ICU beds, of which 7,418 (87.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 347 (4.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 714 (8.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,189 ICU beds, of which 918 (77.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 32 (2.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 239 (20.1%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (September 14), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,889.9, the 7 day confirmed case average was 310.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 2.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 392.3, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 11.74%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 6.8.
One week ago (September 7), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,451.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 269.3, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 373.4, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 12.07%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 6.7.
Two weeks ago (August 31), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,477.3, the 7 day confirmed case average was 256.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 330.1, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 11.39%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 5.5.
One year ago (September 8, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 11,475.7, the 7 day confirmed case average was 731.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.6, the 7 day hospitalization average was 577.0, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.13%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 8.5.
Two years ago (September 14, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 66,252.3, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,362.4, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.4, the 7 day hospitalization average was 641.0, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.28%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 1.1.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 3.97; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 1,233.9 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 22.93; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 7,123.4 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Monday, September 11, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 669.3 copies per milliliter (30.9 more than one week prior - up 4.8%), 5,383.9% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 92.3% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 543.1 copies/mL two weeks ago, 639.6 copies/mL one year ago, and 190.6 copies/mL two years ago.
As of Sunday, September 10, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 683.6 copies per milliliter (150.5 more than one week prior - up 28.2%), 6,621.7% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 94.2% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 409.3 copies/mL two weeks ago, 672.6 copies/mL one year ago, and 275.3 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.


The trends statewide continue to be mostly in the bad direction; with the confirmed death count up by one and the confirmed case count up eighteen percent. The test count actually went up, and the percent-positive rate managed to drop a fraction of a percent; still, at 11.74%, that's way too high to have any confidence that reported cases match the actual prevalence of COVID in the population. There were slight drops in the numbers of patients currently in hospital, but both the seven-day average and the number of new hospitalizations over the past week are up again. In additional unencouraging news, both sides of the MWRA sewershed are up over six hundred copies/milliliter, continuing their upward climb from their late June lows (around one hundred).

In better news, the Food and Drug Adminstration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have approved updated COVID-19 booster shots. (I'm signed up to get my latest booster on Saturday.)