Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today (Thursday, August 31, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 12 newly reported confirmed deaths (5 less than last week - down 29.4%) for a total of 22,760 confirmed deaths. There were 2 newly reported probable deaths (1 less than last week - down 33.3%) for a total of 2,056 probable deaths. In total, 14 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (6 less than last week - down 30.0%) for a total of 24,816 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 2,171 newly reported confirmed cases (123 more than last week - up 6.0%) for a total of 2,055,174 confirmed cases. There were 927 newly reported probable cases (231 more than last week - up 33.2%) for a total of 210,253 probable cases. In total, 3,098 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (354 more than last week - up 12.9%) for a total of 2,265,427 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 20,072 new molecular tests (773 more than last week - up 4.0%) for a total of 50,373,746. The seven-day average positivity rate is 11.39%, compared to 10.83% last week. There are currently 342 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (42 more than last week - up 14.0%), 32 COVID patients are in ICUs (same as last week), and 11 COVID patients are intubated (5 more than last week - up 83.3%). Over the last seven days, there were 389 new hospitalizations (12 more than last week - up 3.2%), which is a rate of 5.53 hospitalizations per 100k population (0.2 more than last week - up 3.2%). Under CDC's current definitions, the current COVID-19 hospital admissions level statewide is Low, compared to Low last week.

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 256.7 (27.9 more than last week - up 12.2%), 300.2% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 98.9% below the highest observed value of 23,246.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 11.39% (0.56 more than last week - up 5.1%), 3,600.4% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 58.8% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 330.1 (41.6 more than last week - up 14.4%), 291.7% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 91.5% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 1.3 (0.6 less than last week - down 30.8%), 350.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.3 on 8/5/2023 and 99.3% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 2,477.3 (182.9 more than last week - up 8.0%), 30.2% above the lowest observed value of 1,902.7 on 7/8/2023 and 97.8% below the highest observed value of 110,430.9 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,568 non-ICU beds, of which 7,561 (88.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 310 (3.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 697 (8.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,175 ICU beds, of which 910 (77.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 32 (2.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 233 (19.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,471 non-ICU beds, of which 7,518 (88.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 268 (3.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 685 (8.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,178 ICU beds, of which 916 (77.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 32 (2.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 230 (19.5%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (August 31), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,477.3, the 7 day confirmed case average was 256.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.3, the 7 day hospitalization average was 330.1, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 11.39%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 5.5.
One week ago (August 24), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,294.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 228.9, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 288.6, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 10.83%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 5.4.
Two weeks ago (August 17), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,164.7, the 7 day confirmed case average was 194.6, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 253.7, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 9.94%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 5.8.
One year ago (August 25, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 12,959.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 914.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 7.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 582.6, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.84%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 9.0.
Two years ago (August 31, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 50,412.9, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,143.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 5.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 581.2, the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.61%, and the previous seven day new COVID hospitalizations per 100k population was 1.0.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 5.23; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 1,342.9 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 20.35; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 5,224.1 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Monday, August 28, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 543.1 copies per milliliter (186.3 more than one week prior - up 52.2%), 4,349.4% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 93.8% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 508.3 copies/mL two weeks ago, 399.3 copies/mL one year ago, and 353.6 copies/mL two years ago.
The seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 436.3 copies per milliliter (40.2 more than one week prior - up 10.2%), 4,190.0% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 96.3% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 351.6 copies/mL two weeks ago, 528.4 copies/mL one year ago, and 345.0 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.


The good news (such as it is) is that there were fewer deaths this reporting period. Also, tests are up fractionally (although still far below the testing rate of April 2020). However, cases are also up, and the percent-positive ratio is now up to 11.39%, the highest reported since January 12 (when we were averaging four times as many tests per day). Hospitalization rates are also up, and the wastewater levels from both the north and south sides of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority sewershed are both up compared to last week, not to mention way up compared to their June levels and way, way up from their all-time lows in previous Junes.

One other point in the wastewater numbers: back in April, the MWRA went from daily sample collecting to a three-day-per-week cycle. As of last Thursday (August 24), they've gone back to daily collections. I haven't seen any official announcement as to why.

Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have launched a new site, CDC Respiratory Virus Updates, in which "CDC is posting updates on the respiratory illness season here every week", apparently on Wednesdays. The first such update (last Wednesday) reported the initial risk assessment for the new BA.2.86 COVID variant; the second (yesterday) updated that risk assessment:

Based on current information, existing tests used to detect and medications used to treat COVID-19 continue to be effective with this variant. Scientists are evaluating how previous immunity from vaccinations or past infections protect against this new variant. Tests of how well antibodies block the virus from infecting cells give us one measure of how well one part of the immune system might handle BA.2.86. Along with antibodies, other parts of the immune system have important roles in protecting people from the most severe outcomes of COVID-19. These other parts of the immune system have been less affected by viral evolution and are not predicted to have decreased activity against BA.2.86.

[ ... ]

At this time, we don't know how well this variant spreads, but we know that it spreads in the same way as other variants.

The new variant hasn't officially been spotted in Massachusetts, and it's still very early days figuring out whether it'll be better or worse than any of the other variants floating around. On the other hand, the local trends are mostly going in the wrong directions anyway, even without this new variant. There's no need to panic - yet - but I can't say there's any basis for lowering one's guard.