edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
[personal profile] edschweppe
Well, today's data is ... weird. First off, it's being released today, which is a Wednesday, which is not Thursday. Given that tomorrow, which is Thursday, is also Thanksgiving Day, that's not too surprising, especially since the state has added this note to their dashboard:
Please note: this week's edition of the weekly COVID-19 Interactive Data Dashboard was posted on Wednesday, November 23 in light of the Thanksgiving holiday.
On the other hand, the raw data file is dated tomorrow (November 24), which implies that it covers seven days of data (since the last one was dated last Thursday), even though the previous data file is only six days old. Meanwhile, it being Wednesday after all, the good folks at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention haven't updated their community transmission and community level numbers since last week; they've got a note on their COVID Data Tracker page saying
COVID Data Tracker will not update on Thursday November 24, 2022. Regular updates will resume on Friday November 25, 2022.
So nothing new there.

What is in today's data?

As of 5PM today (Thursday November 24, 2022), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 64 newly reported confirmed deaths (8 less than last Thursday - down 11.1%) for a total of 20,833 deaths, 4,425 newly reported confirmed cases (72 less than last Thursday - down 1.6%) for a total of 1,929,736 cases, and 90,184 newly reported molecular tests (4,308 less than last Thursday - down 4.6%). Note that today's death data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 9.1 newly reported deaths per day (63 less than last Thursday - down 87.3%).
Note that today's case/test data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 632.1 newly reported cases per day (3,865 less than last Thursday - down 85.9%), and 12,883.4 newly reported molecular tests per day (81,609 less than last Thursday - down 86.4%).

Note that last Thursday's death data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 10.3 newly reported deaths per day and today's newly reported deaths are 54 more than last Thursday's values - up 522.2%.
Note that last Thursday's case/test data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 642.4 newly reported cases per day and today's newly reported cases are 3,783 more than last Thursday's values - up 588.8%. There were 13,498.9 newly reported molecular tests per day and today's newly reported tests are 76,685 more than last Thursday's values - up 568.1%.
The seven day average positivity rate is 5.59%, compared to 5.44% last Thursday. The state also reported 30 newly reported probable deaths (8 more than last Thursday - up 36.4%) for a total of 1,564 and 841 newly reported probable cases (123 more than last Thursday - up 17.1%) for a total of 179,983. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 94 new deaths for a total of 22,397 and 5,266 new cases for a total of 2,109,719. There were 562 COVID-19 patients in hospital (same as last Thursday), 64 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (13 more than last Thursday - up 25.5%) and 18 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 more than last Thursday - up 28.6%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 513.0 (3 less than last Thursday - down 0.6%), 701% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 98.0% below the highest observed value of 23,219.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 5.59% (0 more than last Thursday - up 2.8%), 1,718% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 80% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 557.0 (11 less than last Thursday - down 1.9%), 563% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 7.0 (2 less than last Thursday - down 22.2%), 600% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/10/2021 and 97% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,862 non-ICU beds, of which 7,784 (87.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 498 (5.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 580 (6.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,187 ICU beds, of which 923 (77.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 64 (5.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 200 (16.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last Thursday a total of 8,817 non-ICU beds, of which 7,757 (88.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 511 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 549 (6.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last Thursday a total of 1,202 ICU beds, of which 995 (82.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 51 (4.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 156 (13.0%) remained available.

One week ago (November 17), the 7 day confirmed case average was 516.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 9.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 568.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.44%.

Two weeks ago (November 10), the 7 day confirmed case average was 622.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 11.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 563.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.80%.

One year ago (November 24, 2021), the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,998.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 11.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 691.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.31%.

Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 3,995 total cases, with a two-week case count of 25 cases, a daily incidence rate of 7.4 which is lower than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of yellow (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 111,411 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 539 and a two-week positive test count of 27, for a percent-positive rate of 5.01 which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 1,929,736 total cases, with a two-week case count of 9,024 cases, a daily incidence rate of 9.2 which is lower than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 48,487,799 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 188,655 and a two-week positive test count of 10,246, for a percent-positive rate of 5.43 which is lower than last week.

As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 160 would be coded gray (compared to 140 last week), 65 would be coded green (compared to 62 last week), and 66 would be coded yellow (compared to 73 last week).The remaining 60 towns would be coded red (compared to 76 last week): Agawam, Athol, Barnstable, Bedford, Bellingham, Bourne, Burlington, Carver, Charlton, Chelmsford, Chicopee, Clinton, Danvers, Dracut, Dudley, East Longmeadow, Easthampton, Framingham, Gardner, Greenfield, Hanson, Hopkinton, Hull, Lawrence, Leicester, Leominster, Longmeadow, Ludlow, Lynnfield, Marblehead, Mashpee, Methuen, Middleborough, Milford, New Bedford, North Reading, Pepperell, Pittsfield, Raynham, Revere, Salem, Saugus, Spencer, Springfield, Stoneham, Swampscott, Taunton, Tewksbury, Tyngsborough, Uxbridge, Wakefield, Wareham, Webster, West Springfield, Wilbraham, Winchendon, Winthrop, Woburn, Worcester, and Yarmouth.

9 cities/towns would be newly coded red this week (Athol, Bedford, Dudley, East Longmeadow, Leominster, Marblehead, Middleborough, Pepperell, and Woburn) and 25 cities/towns would no longer be coded red this week (Billerica, Dartmouth, Dennis, Fairhaven, Fall River, Holbrook, Holden, Holyoke, Littleton, Lowell, Lynn, Malden, Medway, Melrose, Northbridge, Norwell, Oxford, Seekonk, Shrewsbury, Swansea, Ware, Westfield, Weston, Wilmington, and Wrentham).

Of the 10 towns nearby (including my own town), 2 are coded gray (Boxborough, and Carlisle), 5 are coded green (Concord, Littleton, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury), 2 are coded yellow (Acton, and Westford), and one is coded red (Chelmsford).

Of the 10 towns near my church, 4 are coded gray (Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, and Harvard), 5 are coded green (Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury), one is coded yellow (Acton), and none are coded red.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of November 17, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3222 counties nationwide, 1244 counties (38.61% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 1058 counties (32.84% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 745 counties (23.12% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 175 counties (5.43% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 12 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Barnstable, Berkshire, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Worcester), 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate (Suffolk), and 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Low (Nantucket).

Barnstable County has 76.53 cases per 100k, 7.7 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Berkshire County has 65.63 cases per 100k, 4.63 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Bristol County has 69.88 cases per 100k, 7.61 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Dukes County has 51.93 cases per 100k, 3.06 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Essex County has 73.25 cases per 100k, 5.48 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Franklin County has 69.82 cases per 100k, 4.86 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Hampden County has 97.35 cases per 100k, 7.56 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Hampshire County has 63.42 cases per 100k, 3.74 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Middlesex County has 60.62 cases per 100k, 5.24 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Nantucket County has 8.77 cases per 100k, 0.82 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of low
Norfolk County has 55.18 cases per 100k, 4.77 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Plymouth County has 55.83 cases per 100k, 5.35 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Suffolk County has 46.52 cases per 100k, 4.74 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of moderate
Worcester County has 76.45 cases per 100k, 6.28 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial

The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of November 17, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3219 counties nationwide: 90 counties (2.80%, representing 3.01% of the population) with High community level, 537 counties (16.68%, representing 16.95% of the population) with Medium community level, and 2592 counties (80.52%, representing 80.04% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts (population 6892503) have a COVID Community Level of Low.

Barnstable County (population 212990) has 76.53 cases per 100k (implying 163.00 cases in the county), 9.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 65.63 cases per 100k (implying 82.00 cases in the county), 4.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 2.6 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 69.88 cases per 100k (implying 394.97 cases in the county), 8.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 51.93 cases per 100k (implying 9.00 cases in the county), 9.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Essex County (population 789034) has 73.25 cases per 100k (implying 577.97 cases in the county), 6.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 69.82 cases per 100k (implying 49.00 cases in the county), 9.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 97.35 cases per 100k (implying 454.01 cases in the county), 5.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 63.42 cases per 100k (implying 102.00 cases in the county), 5.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 60.62 cases per 100k (implying 977.01 cases in the county), 9.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 8.77 cases per 100k (implying 1.00 cases in the county), 9.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Low and a community level of Low.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 55.18 cases per 100k (implying 390.00 cases in the county), 9.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 55.83 cases per 100k (implying 290.99 cases in the county), 9.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 46.52 cases per 100k (implying 373.98 cases in the county), 9.4 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Moderate and a community level of Low.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 76.45 cases per 100k (implying 635.01 cases in the county), 9.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Low.
The CDC community level data implies a total of 4,499.94 cases statewide.

The underlying query for this data is available here.

(The town of Acton has stopped updating its COVID-19 Information Center and Google Data Studio dashboard.)

At first blush, the drops in newly reported confirmed deaths and cases are heartening; however, as noted above the cut, it's pretty hard to tell if this is really seven days of data or only six. I have a bad feeling that, regardless of the date, there are only six days of data in here, which doesn't lend itself to a conclusion that case rates (in particular) are actually dropping. Hospitalizations held steady, which I suppose is at least not-terrible news.

I haven't seen any local reporting on this, but apparently the National Institutes of Health have launched a website for self-reporting at-home COVID tests:
eporting a positive or negative test result just became easier through a new website from the National Institutes of Health. MakeMyTestCount.org, developed through NIH's Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics (RADx®) Tech program, allows users to anonymously report the results of any brand of at-home COVID-19 test.

COVID-19 testing remains an essential tool as the United States heads into the holiday season and people navigate respiratory viruses. While taking a rapid COVID-19 test has become commonplace, test results are not often reported. COVID-19 test results provide valuable data that public health departments can use to assess the needs and modify the responses in the local community, the state or the nation.

Lab tests have a well-established technology system for sharing test results. RADx Tech has been working on a system to standardize test reporting for at-home tests in a secure manner. The MakeMyTestCount.org website is built on this system for logging test results.

The National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (NIBIB) supported development of MakeMyTestCount.org through the RADx Tech program.  

I have no idea, at this point, whether or not any public health departments here in Massachusetts will ever look at this data. I'm guessing the CDC's own reporting won't cover it, since their data is based on laboratory-based Nucleic Acid Amplification Test (NAAT) counts.

(no subject)

Date: 2022-11-24 02:47 am (UTC)
anne: (Default)
From: [personal profile] anne
I noticed today that my doctor's office has dismantled their covid-test tent.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

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