edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
[personal profile] edschweppe
As of 5PM today (Thursday August 11, 2022), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 39 newly reported confirmed deaths (2 less than last Thursday - down 4.9%) for a total of 19,978 deaths, 8,950 newly reported confirmed cases (696 less than last Thursday - down 7.2%) for a total of 1,821,987 cases, and 122,739 newly reported molecular tests (10,680 less than last Thursday - down 8.0%). Note that today's death data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 5.6 newly reported deaths per day (35 less than last Thursday - down 86.4%).
Note that today's case/test data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 1,278.6 newly reported cases per day (8,367 less than last Thursday - down 86.7%), and 17,534.1 newly reported molecular tests per day (115,885 less than last Thursday - down 86.9%).

Note that last Thursday's death data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 5.9 newly reported deaths per day and today's newly reported deaths are 33 more than last Thursday's values - up 565.9%.
Note that last Thursday's case/test data covers 7 days. Averaged over that period, there were 1,378.0 newly reported cases per day and today's newly reported cases are 7,572 more than last Thursday's values - up 549.5%. There were 19,059.9 newly reported molecular tests per day and today's newly reported tests are 103,679 more than last Thursday's values - up 544.0%.
The seven day average positivity rate is 8.05%, compared to 7.97% last Thursday. The state also reported 22 newly reported probable deaths (15 more than last Thursday - up 214.3%) for a total of 1,307 and 932 newly reported probable cases (6 less than last Thursday - down 0.6%) for a total of 165,398. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 61 new deaths for a total of 21,285 and 9,882 new cases for a total of 1,987,385. There were 560 COVID-19 patients in hospital (same as last Thursday), 57 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (same as last Thursday) and 12 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 less than last Thursday - down 20.0%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,004.0 (52 less than last Thursday - down 4.9%), 1,468% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 96.0% below the highest observed value of 23,205.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 8.05% (0 more than last Thursday - up 1.0%), 2,516% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 71% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 562.0 (8 less than last Thursday - down 1.4%), 569% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 8.0 (1 more than last Thursday - up 14.3%), 700% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/10/2021 and 96% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,619 non-ICU beds, of which 7,516 (87.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 503 (5.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 600 (7.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,172 ICU beds, of which 911 (77.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 57 (4.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 204 (17.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last Thursday a total of 8,661 non-ICU beds, of which 7,577 (87.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 503 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 581 (6.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last Thursday a total of 1,183 ICU beds, of which 894 (75.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 57 (4.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 232 (19.6%) remained available.

One week ago (August 4), the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,056.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 7.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 570.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.97%.

Two weeks ago (July 28), the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,107.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 7.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 592.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.09%.

One year ago (August 11, 2021), the 7 day confirmed case average was 799.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 4.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 293.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.91%.

Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 3,694 total cases, with a two-week case count of 55 cases, a daily incidence rate of 16.4 which is lower than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of red (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 106,690 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 771 and a two-week positive test count of 63, for a percent-positive rate of 8.17 which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 1,821,987 total cases, with a two-week case count of 18,477 cases, a daily incidence rate of 18.8 which is lower than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 46,815,259 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 254,785 and a two-week positive test count of 20,471, for a percent-positive rate of 8.03 which is lower than last week.

As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 107 would be coded gray (compared to 104 last week), 33 would be coded green (compared to 32 last week), and 36 would be coded yellow (compared to 38 last week).The remaining 175 towns would be coded red (compared to 177 last week): Abington, Acton, Acushnet, Adams, Agawam, Amesbury, Andover, Arlington, Ashland, Attleboro, Auburn, Barnstable, Bedford, Belchertown, Bellingham, Belmont, Beverly, Billerica, Boston, Bourne, Braintree, Bridgewater, Brockton, Brookline, Burlington, Cambridge, Canton, Carver, Charlton, Chelmsford, Chelsea, Chicopee, Clinton, Dalton, Dartmouth, Dedham, Dennis, Dracut, Dudley, Duxbury, East Bridgewater, East Longmeadow, Easton, Everett, Fairhaven, Fall River, Falmouth, Fitchburg, Foxborough, Framingham, Franklin, Gardner, Gloucester, Grafton, Great Barrington, Greenfield, Hanover, Hanson, Harwich, Haverhill, Hingham, Holbrook, Holden, Holliston, Holyoke, Hopkinton, Hudson, Hull, Kingston, Lakeville, Lawrence, Leicester, Leominster, Lexington, Littleton, Longmeadow, Lowell, Ludlow, Lunenburg, Lynn, Lynnfield, Malden, Mansfield, Marblehead, Marlborough, Marshfield, Mashpee, Maynard, Medfield, Medford, Medway, Melrose, Methuen, Middleborough, Middleton, Milford, Milton, Montague, Nantucket, Natick, Needham, New Bedford, Newburyport, Newton, Norfolk, North Adams, North Andover, North Attleborough, North Reading, Northborough, Northbridge, Norton, Norwell, Norwood, Oxford, Palmer, Peabody, Pembroke, Pittsfield, Plymouth, Quincy, Randolph, Raynham, Reading, Rehoboth, Revere, Rockland, Salem, Sandwich, Saugus, Scituate, Seekonk, Sharon, Shirley, Shrewsbury, Somerset, Somerville, South Hadley, Southborough, Southbridge, Springfield, Stoneham, Stoughton, Sudbury, Swampscott, Swansea, Taunton, Tewksbury, Tyngsborough, Wakefield, Walpole, Waltham, Ware, Wareham, Watertown, Wayland, Webster, Wellesley, West Springfield, Westborough, Westfield, Westford, Westport, Westwood, Weymouth, Whitman, Wilbraham, Wilmington, Winchendon, Winchester, Winthrop, Woburn, Worcester, Wrentham, and Yarmouth.

7 cities/towns would be newly coded red this week (Amesbury, Dalton, Duxbury, Hudson, Lunenburg, Webster, and Wellesley) and 9 cities/towns would no longer be coded red this week (Brewster, Chatham, Danvers, Easthampton, Groton, Lenox, Southwick, Uxbridge, and Weston).

Of the 10 towns nearby (including my own town), 2 are coded gray (Carlisle, and Stow), 2 are coded green (Boxborough, and Concord), none are coded yellow, and 6 are coded red (Acton, Chelmsford, Littleton, Maynard, Sudbury, and Westford).

Of the 10 towns near my church, 3 are coded gray (Berlin, Harvard, and Stow), 2 are coded green (Bolton, and Boxborough), none are coded yellow, and 5 are coded red (Acton, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, and Sudbury).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of August 10, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3222 counties nationwide, 3026 counties (93.92% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 129 counties (4.00% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 35 counties (1.09% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 32 counties (0.99% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 13 counties have a Community Transmission Level of High (Barnstable, Berkshire, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Nantucket).

Barnstable County has 142.260 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 191.290 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 137.470 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has 115.390 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Essex County has 149.300 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 136.790 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampden County has 177.760 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 147.980 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Middlesex County has 138.430 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 87.730 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Norfolk County has 121.540 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 125.670 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 146.530 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 121.230 cases per 100k, percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high

The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of August 11, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3223 counties nationwide: 1278 counties (39.65%, representing 44.56% of the population) with High community level, 1307 counties (40.55%, representing 37.47% of the population) with Medium community level, and 638 counties (19.80%, representing 17.97% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported the following COVID Community Levels for the 14 counties in Massachusetts (population 6892503): 7 counties (representing 56.37% of the state's population) with Medium community level (Barnstable, Dukes, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk), and 7 counties (representing 43.63% of the state's population) with Low community level (Berkshire, Bristol, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester).

Barnstable County (population 212990) has 142.26 cases per 100k, 10.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 191.29 cases per 100k, 6.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 137.47 cases per 100k, 8.8 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 115.39 cases per 100k, 10.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Essex County (population 789034) has 149.3 cases per 100k, 5.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 136.79 cases per 100k, 9.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 177.76 cases per 100k, 4.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 147.98 cases per 100k, 4.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.3 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 138.43 cases per 100k, 10.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 87.73 cases per 100k, 10.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of Substantial and a community level of Medium.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 121.54 cases per 100k, 10.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 125.67 cases per 100k, 10.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 146.53 cases per 100k, 10.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 121.23 cases per 100k, 9.9 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.

The underlying query for this data is available here.

Well, today's statewide numbers aren't great, but they do show a bit of improvement compared to last week and the week before, so that's something. Fewer confirmed deaths and cases were reported this past week compared to last, while hospitalization counts held steady. The seven-day averages are a mixed bag, with cases and hospitalizations down while deaths and percent-positive are up. That being said, the 8,950 newly reported cases are still way, way too high for my liking; that's an average of 1,278.6 new cases per day. The statewide confirmed death total is up to 19,978; we'll almost certainly be cracking the twenty-thousand-death threshold next week.

Not that I really needed proof of this, but an as-yet-unreviewed preprint study shows that Massachusetts schools that kept mask requirements in place back in February had significantly lower COVID case rates that schools that dropped the requirements:
A study comparing the experience of Massachusetts schools that maintained masking requirements early this year with those that dropped them has provided new evidence that masks are beneficial in protecting students and staff from COVID-19.

The preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed, was authored by researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston University School of Public Health, and the Boston Public Health Commission.

"Masking is a relatively low-cost but effective intervention that can protect students and staff from substantial illness and loss of in-person days in school," the study said.

"Despite compelling evidence that masking significantly reduces the spread of SARS-CoV-2, political will and public adherence to masking has waned," the study said. "Our study confirms that universal masking requirements can benefit all students and staff, and therefore represents an important strategy to mitigate the impacts of structural racism, ensure health equity, and to avoid potential deepening of educational inequities."

[ ... ]

In February 2022, after the statewide school masking mandate was rescinded, only Boston and Chelsea out of 79 school districts in Greater Boston, maintained masking requirements in their schools, the study said. That gave researchers an opportunity to examine the impact of the removal of masks on COVID-19 case rates among students and staff.

Researchers said their observational study found that dropping mask mandates was associated with an additional 44.9 COVID-19 cases per 1,000 students and staff over 15 weeks after the lifting of the statewide school masking requirement.

Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced changes to their recommendations, scrapping the recommendation for close contacts of infected people to self-quarantine:
NEW YORK (AP) — The nation's top public health agency relaxed its COVID-19 guidelines Thursday, dropping the recommendation that Americans quarantine themselves if they come into close contact with an infected person.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also said people no longer need to stay at least 6 feet away from others.

The changes, which come more than 2 1/2 years after the start of the pandemic, are driven by a recognition that an estimated 95% of Americans 16 and older have acquired some level of immunity, either from being vaccinated or infected, agency officials said.

"The current conditions of this pandemic are very different from those of the last two years," said the CDC's Greta Massetti, an author of the guidelines.

Many places around the country long ago abandoned social distancing and other once-common precautions, but some of the changes could be particularly important for schools, which resume classes this month in many parts of the country.

Perhaps the biggest education-related change is the end of the recommendation that schools do routine daily testing, although that practice can be reinstated in certain situations during a surge in infections, officials said.

The CDC also dropped a "test-to-stay" recommendation, which said students exposed to COVID-19 could regularly test — instead of quarantining at home — to keep attending school. With no quarantine recommendation anymore, the testing option disappeared too.

Masks continue to be recommended only in areas where community transmission is deemed high, or if a person is considered at high risk of severe illness.

School districts across the U.S. have scaled back their COVID-19 precautions in recent weeks even before the latest guidance was issued. Some have promised a return to pre-pandemic schooling.

Masks will be optional in most districts when classes resume this fall, and some of the nation's largest districts have dialed back or eliminated COVID-19 testing requirements.

Public schools in Los Angeles are ending weekly COVID-19 tests, instead making at-home tests available to families, the district announced last week. Schools in North Carolina's Wake County also dropped weekly testing.

Some others have moved away from test-to-stay programs that became unmanageable during surges of the omicron variant last school year.

The CDC previously said that if people who are not up to date on their COVID-19 vaccinations come into close contact with a person who tests positive, they should stay home for at least five days. Now the agency says quarantining at home is not necessary, but it urges those people to wear a high-quality mask for 10 days and get tested after five.

[ ... ]

Also on Thursday, the Food and Drug Administration updated its recommendations for how many times people exposed to COVID-19 should test.

Previously, the FDA had advised taking two rapid antigen tests over two or three days to rule out infection. Now the agency recommends three tests.

FDA officials said the change was based on new studies that suggest the old protocol can miss too many infections and result in people spreading the coronavirus, especially if they don't develop symptoms.

I'm not sure relaxing controls even more makes as much sense as the CDC implies, especially with practically the entire country having high community transmission levels, and nearly half the population living in counties with high "community level". But I suppose the new guidance is in line with what most people appear to be already doing. (The last big change to the CDC guidance was back in February, when they came up with the whole "community level" thing.)

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 8 active and 3,817 cumulative cases as of August 10; the cumulative count has held steady since August 7. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.

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Edmund Schweppe

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