Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 6 newly reported confirmed deaths (6 less than Friday - down 50.0%) for a total of 19,480 deaths, 5,060 newly reported confirmed cases (2,085 more than Friday - up 70.1%) for a total of 1,730,279 cases, and 87,139 newly reported molecular tests (43,837 more than Friday - up 101.2%). Note that today's case/test data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 1,686.7 newly reported cases per day (1,288 less than Friday - down 43.3%), and 29,046.3 newly reported molecular tests per day (14,256 less than Friday - down 32.9%). The seven day average positivity rate is 6.55%, compared to 7.73% Friday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 more than Friday) for a total of 1,190 and 457 newly reported probable cases (45 more than Friday - up 10.9%) for a total of 154,755. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 7 new deaths for a total of 20,670 and 5,517 new cases for a total of 1,885,034. There were 660 COVID-19 patients in hospital (5 less than Friday - down 0.8%), 67 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (3 less than Friday - down 4.3%) and 22 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 more than Friday - up 15.8%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,593.0 (85 more than Friday - up 5.6%), 2,389% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 94.0% below the highest observed value of 23,200.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 6.55% (0 less than Friday - down 15.3%), 2,028% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 76% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 676.0 (17 less than Friday - down 2.5%), 704% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 83% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 8.0 (1 less than Friday - down 11.1%), 700% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 96% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,805 non-ICU beds, of which 7,546 (85.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 593 (6.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 666 (7.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,242 ICU beds, of which 915 (73.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 67 (5.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 260 (20.9%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,890 non-ICU beds, of which 7,664 (86.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 595 (7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 631 (7.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,238 ICU beds, of which 908 (73.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 70 (5.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 260 (21.0%) remained available.

Last Monday was a holiday, so there was no report from the Commonwealth. On the Friday before last (May 27) , the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,198.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 11.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 814.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.34%.

Two weeks ago (May 23), the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,804.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 802.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.30%.

One year ago (June 6, 2021), the 7 day confirmed case average was 115.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 4.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 208.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.53% (or 0.76% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of June 5, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3220 counties nationwide, 2390 counties (74.22% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 405 counties (12.58% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 273 counties (8.48% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 152 counties (4.72% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 13 counties have a Community Transmission Level of High (Barnstable, Berkshire, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Nantucket).

Barnstable County has 161.980 cases per 100k, 9.29 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 244.110 cases per 100k, 8.67 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 125.620 cases per 100k, 7.53 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has 109.620 cases per 100k, 6.05 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Essex County has 159.180 cases per 100k, 7.59 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 129.670 cases per 100k, 6.07 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampden County has 193.410 cases per 100k, 8.11 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 159.800 cases per 100k, 4.91 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Middlesex County has 193.090 cases per 100k, 7.89 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 87.730 cases per 100k, 7.88 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of substantial
Norfolk County has 168.940 cases per 100k, 8.9 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 124.140 cases per 100k, 7.2 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 155.860 cases per 100k, 7.57 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 142.780 cases per 100k, 6.37 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of June 2, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3224 counties nationwide: 241 counties (7.48%, representing 21.39% of the population) with High community level, 736 counties (22.83%, representing 34.54% of the population) with Medium community level, and 2247 counties (69.70%, representing 44.07% of the population) with Low community level. The CDC also reported the following COVID Community Levels for the 14 counties in Massachusetts: 5 counties (representing 49.41% of the state's population) with High community level (Barnstable, Franklin, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk), 8 counties (representing 42.39% of the state's population) with Medium community level (Berkshire, Dukes, Essex, Hampden, Hampshire, Nantucket, Plymouth, Worcester), and 1 counties (representing 8.20% of the state's population) with Low community level (Bristol).

Barnstable County (population 212990) has 209.4 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 352.16 cases per 100k, 8.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 6.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 180.11 cases per 100k, 8.5 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Low.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 167.32 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Essex County (population 789034) has 212.41 cases per 100k, 8.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 202.34 cases per 100k, 12.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 253.87 cases per 100k, 6.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 228.81 cases per 100k, 6.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.7 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 260.22 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 114.05 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 214.21 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 174.4 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 224.9 cases per 100k, 12.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 188.53 cases per 100k, 12.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.8 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
The underlying query for this data is available here.

Day-to-day deaths are down compared to Friday, always a good sign. Newly confirmed cases are up in raw numbers but down noticeably when averaged across the three days of case/test data. A slight downtick in hospitalizations is also encouraging, as are drops in the seven-day averages for hospitalizations, deaths and percent-positive. (In fact, the percent-positive average dropped over a full percentage point, from 7.73% Friday to 6.55% today.) Last Monday, of course, was a holiday and thus had no report; compared to the previous Friday and the Monday before last, however, all the seven-day averages are comfortably lower. Of course, compared to last year at this time, things are all dramatically worse.

And there may or may not be Omicron-specific COVID booster vaccines this fall; apparently the virus is changing too fast, and the boosters aren't necessarily that much better:

When the Omicron variant emerged in November, scientists at Moderna and Pfizer sacrificed their Thanksgiving holiday weekend to begin working on new shots tailored to the latest incarnation of the virus. Emboldened by the record-breaking speed of the designing, testing, and authorization of the original COVID-19 vaccines ― accomplished in under a year ― Pfizer chief executive Albert Bourla promised that updated shots would be available within 100 days.

"This vaccine will be ready in March," Bourla emphatically told CNBC in January. "I don't know if it will be needed. I don't know if and how it will be used. But it will be ready."

That self-imposed deadline passed with few updates and no explanations for the delay. By the time the US Food and Drug Administration convenes a meeting late this month to discuss plans for updating booster shots in the fall, more than 200 days will have elapsed since Moderna and Pfizer began working on their Omicron vaccines.

So what's the holdup?

The pace — more like a brisk jog than a sprint — has frustrated some scientists who believe updated vaccines would help increase the strength and breadth of the immune system's ability to fight Omicron. "The sense of urgency is lacking," said Larissa Thackray, an infectious disease biologist at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis.

Pfizer and Moderna did not grant interviews, but vaccine scientists ticked off several reasons for the delay. To start, the virus keeps changing too quickly. There's also conflicting data on the superiority of variant-specific boosters over what's already available, casting doubt on their value. And with the majority of Americans yet to get even their first booster shot, the companies' financial incentive for making new ones has diminished.

It took Pfizer and Moderna just over 300 days to go from the genetic sequence of SARS-CoV-2 to earning emergency authorization of their shots from the FDA — crushing Merck's previous record of developing a mumps vaccine in four years. Some experts believe the 100-day turnaround time for updated vaccines could be possible under some circumstances. Apparently it was too ambitious in this case.

"People just got so accustomed to the fast pace of progress with the development of vaccines during the pandemic that their expectations are unrealistic," said David Montefiori, a virologist at the Duke University School of Medicine whose lab is running tests on Cambridge-based Moderna's updated vaccine.

[ ... ]

So far, studies testing Omicron boosters in mice and monkeys have yielded surprisingly mixed and mediocre results. "We expected the variant vaccine would be stupendously better, and that the original one wouldn't work that well," said Thackray, who led a study comparing the Omicron and original boosters in mice. Although the Omicron boosters triggered somewhat higher antibody levels against that variant, the original booster also worked fairly well.

Likewise, Sidi Chen, an associate professor of genetics at Yale University, found that an Omicron booster spurred higher neutralizing antibody levels against the Omicron variant, but he cautioned that "the effect isn't dramatically different" from the original booster. In contrast, a National Institutes of Health study found that monkeys who got the Omicron booster actually developed fewer antibodies than animals who received the original booster.

In March, Moderna began testing a so-called bivalent booster that contains mRNA for both the original coronavirus and the Omicron strain — an effort to "hedge your bets" against the evolving virus, Thackray said. The FDA's vaccine advisory committee will likely debate the relative merits of the original, Omicron, and bivalent boosters when it meets at the end of the month.

Dr. Eric Rubin, an immunologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and a member of the committee, said he would like to see data that show an updated booster shot can broaden immunity to several SARS-CoV-2 variants. "Then we might feel much more comfortable that we can prevent things that we haven't seen yet," he said.

[ ... ]

Throughout the pandemic, health officials have stressed that the goal of the vaccines is to prevent serious disease, hospitalization, and death. "I would argue that we've achieved that goal with the [existing] ancestral vaccine," said Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and a member of the FDA's vaccine advisory committee.

Offit said he would like to better define what the precise goal of updated boosters would be. Although boosters every three to six months can raise antibody levels and prevent mild and moderation infections for a short time, he doesn't see that as a "viable or necessary public healthy strategy" long term.

"We are going to have to get used to mild and moderate infection and have a reasonable goal for this vaccine, because we are driving people crazy," Offit said. "There is already booster fatigue."

I'm all for better and better vaccines, and the mRNA shots that Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have developed are fantastic at keeping folks out of the hospital and the morgue. However, they're not as effective at preventing all infections, and I've seen no data yet on how good they are at keeping folks who do get infected from developing long COVID.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 41 active and 3,487 cumulative cases as of June 4, and has not been updated since. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.