Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 10 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 more than yesterday - up 42.9%) for a total of 19,006 deaths, 1,442 newly reported confirmed cases (30 less than yesterday - down 2.0%) for a total of 1,565,836 cases, and 69,688 newly reported molecular tests (8,281 more than yesterday - up 13.5%).The seven day average positivity rate is 2.47%, compared to 2.36% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 1,109 and 158 newly reported probable cases (34 more than yesterday - up 27.4%) for a total of 134,525. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 10 new deaths for a total of 20,115 and 1,600 new cases for a total of 1,700,361. There were 224 COVID-19 patients in hospital (3 more than yesterday - up 1.4%), 33 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (1 more than yesterday - up 3.1%) and 12 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 more than yesterday - up 9.1%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 859.0 (58 more than yesterday - up 7.2%), 1,242% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 97.0% below the highest observed value of 23,204.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.47% (0 more than yesterday - up 4.8%), 703% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 91% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 219.0 (same as yesterday), 160% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 4.0 (same as yesterday), 300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,941 non-ICU beds, of which 7,908 (88.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 191 (2.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 842 (9.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,254 ICU beds, of which 952 (75.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 33 (2.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 269 (21.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,953 non-ICU beds, of which 7,927 (88.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 189 (2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 837 (9.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,247 ICU beds, of which 962 (77.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 32 (2.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 253 (20.3%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 498.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 7.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 230.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.68%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,588.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 27.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 668.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.49% (or 4.22% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of March 31, 2022, the CDC reported that, of 3219 counties nationwide, 428 counties (13.30% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 565 counties (17.55% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 1588 counties (49.33% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 638 counties (19.82% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that, of the 14 counties in Massachusetts, 6 counties have a Community Transmission Level of High (Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk), 7 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial (Barnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Hampden, Plymouth, Worcester), and 1 counties have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate (Nantucket).
As of March 31, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3220 counties nationwide: 17 counties (0.53%) with High community level, 146 counties (4.53%) with Medium community level, and 3057 counties (94.94%) with Low community level. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts have a COVID Community Level of Low.

The day-over-day numbers are mixed; deaths are up, cases are down, and hospitalizations are up. However, the seven-day averages for cases and percent-positive are both up again, and that's a very ominous trend.

Nationally, things seem to be getting better; the Associated Press reports that the number of COVID patients in US hospitals has dropped to the lowest levels of the pandemic:

NORFOLK, Va. (AP) — COVID-19 hospitalization numbers have plunged to their lowest levels since the early days of the pandemic, offering a much needed break to health care workers and patients alike following the omicron surge.

The number of patients hospitalized with the coronavirus has fallen more than 90% in more than two months, and some hospitals are going days without a single COVID-19 patient in the ICU for the first time since early 2020.

The freed up beds are expected to help U.S. hospitals retain exhausted staff, treat non-COVID-19 patients more quickly and cut down on inflated costs. More family members can visit loved ones. And doctors hope to see a correction to the slide in pediatric visits, yearly checkups and cancer screenings.

"We should all be smiling that the number of people sitting in the hospital right now with COVID, and people in intensive care units with COVID, are at this low point," said University of South Florida epidemiologist Jason Salemi.

But, he said, the nation "paid a steep price to get to this stage. ... A lot of people got sick and a lot of people died."

The average number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in the last week nationwide dropped to 11,860, the lowest since 2020 and a steep decline from the peak of more than 145,000 set in mid-January. The previous low was 12,041 last June, before the delta variant took hold. The optimistic trend is also clear in ICU patient numbers, which have dipped to fewer than 2,000, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

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But just because hospitalizations are down does not mean hospitals are empty, said Dr. Frank Johnson, chief medical officer for St. Luke's Health System in Idaho.

Some measures — like wearing masks in certain settings — will remain in place.

"I don't know when we may go back to old practices regarding mask wearing in our clinical areas," Johnson said. "We've seen some benefits of that in terms of reduction in the number of other viral infections."

In the meantime, the public health community is keeping an eye on the BA.2 subvariant of omicron.

Salemi, the University of South Florida epidemiologist, said the increase in at-home testing means that more results are not being included in official coronavirus case counts. Therefore, wastewater surveillance will be the early warning signal to watch, he said.

"BA.2 is here," he said. "We don't have to look that far in the rear-view mirror to know things can change very rapidly. We saw what happened with delta. We saw what happened with omicron.... We don't want to wait until we see a lot of people hospitalized before we take action."

Massachusetts hospitals are also seeing low levels of COVID admissions; only 2.1% of the state's hospital beds are occupied by patients with COVID-19. However, as noted above, statewide case counts are on the rise again, and that does not bode well for the immediate future.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 23 active and 2,882 cumulative cases as of March 31. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.