Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 23 newly reported confirmed deaths (4 less than yesterday - down 14.8%) for a total of 22,833 deaths, 900 newly reported confirmed cases (167 less than yesterday - down 15.7%) for a total of 1,543,609 cases, and 56,914 newly reported molecular tests (16,143 less than yesterday - down 22.1%).The seven day average positivity rate is 1.82%, compared to 1.80% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as yesterday) for a total of 744 and 90 newly reported probable cases (9 less than yesterday - down 9.1%) for a total of 132,158. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 24 new deaths for a total of 23,577 and 990 new cases for a total of 1,675,767. There were 345 COVID-19 patients in hospital (38 less than yesterday - down 9.9%), 62 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (3 less than yesterday - down 4.6%) and 30 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than yesterday - down 3.2%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 615.0 (18 less than yesterday - down 2.8%), 860% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 98.0% below the highest observed value of 23,185.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.82% (0 more than yesterday - up 1.2%), 490% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 407.0 (21 less than yesterday - down 4.9%), 378% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 90% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 22.0 (same as yesterday), 2,100% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 88% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,937 non-ICU beds, of which 7,844 (87.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 283 (3.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 810 (9.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,263 ICU beds, of which 967 (76.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 62 (4.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 234 (18.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,968 non-ICU beds, of which 7,814 (87.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 318 (4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 836 (9.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,270 ICU beds, of which 956 (75.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 65 (5.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 249 (19.6%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,200.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 36.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 891.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.74%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,040.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 40.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 783.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.75% (or 2.99% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Deaths, cases and hospitalization counts are all down compared to yesterday, which is cretainly encouraging. The seven-day percent-positive average ticked up slightly, but it's still only 1.82% which implies there's still more than enough testing being reported to have some confidence in the numbers. The other three seven-day averages are all down.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have updated their COVID-19 Community Levels by County map, with data as of March 3. That's showing every county in Massachusetts except Hampshire as having a low "COVID-19 Community Level", even though every county in Massachusetts also has either a sustained or high "Level of Community Transmission" according to the current COVID-19 Integrated County View. Of course, that's due to the "COVID-19 Community Level" definitions being much more focused on hospital utilization due to COVID (which is relatively low in Massachusetts) and much less on cases (which are still a lot higher than last summer). I'm absolutely in favor of not having hospitals overwhelmed with COVID cases, but I do wish the CDC was interested in guidelines for individual protective action as well ...

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 13 active and 2,789 cumulative cases as of March 3. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.

Comments

[edschweppe]

A possible URL for CDC "covid community level" data:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/modules/science/us-community-levels-by-county.json

Saved here for potential future use.

"Understanding the COVID-19 Community Levels"

[edschweppe]

Hmmm. The CDC's COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review includes "A Closer Look" about these new "community levels":

At this point in the pandemic, the United States has high rates of vaccine and infection-induced immunity in the population, as well as availability of effective therapeutics, testing, and well-fitting masks/respirators. These tools, which have been developed and distributed over the past two years, mean that we can minimize medically significant disease and prevent excessive strain on the healthcare sector even while SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to circulate. CDC has introduced the COVID-19 Community Levels to monitor the impact of COVID-19 on communities. While we do not know how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus might change in the future (e.g., from the emergence of a new variant), the COVID-19 Community Levels will inform how prevention measures could be used to minimize the impact of COVID-19 on health and society.

The COVID-19 Community Levels considers three measurements that provide a better picture than the previously used Community Transmission metric of the current impact of COVID-19 while also serving as clear predictors of how the situation could change:

• New COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 population in the last 7 days, which reflects the amount of severe COVID-19 disease within the community


• Percent of staffed inpatient beds occupied by patients with confirmed COVID-19 (7-day average), an indicator of local healthcare system usage and remaining capacity to care for patients with other medically important health issues


• New COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population in the last 7 days, a signal of anticipated healthcare strain. An increase over a threshold of 200 cases per 100,000 population may forecast increases in new hospitalizations or inpatient beds occupied by COVID-19 patients and helps communities to implement prevention strategies accordingly.

These three measures were chosen because they 1) monitor severe illness and healthcare strain caused from COVID-19, 2) are available for all counties across the country, from data reported at the county level or allocated to the county level from Health Services Areas (HSAs), and 3) are reported frequently enough to inform decisions about recommended prevention strategies in a timely manner. The data used to inform the COVID-19 Community Levels indicators are available through the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Unified Hospital Data Surveillance System (UHDSS), which monitors national and local trends in healthcare system stress, capacity, and community disease levels for approximately 6,000 hospitals in the United States. Case incidence rate is determined from aggregate counts of COVID-19 cases reported by state and territorial jurisdictions to the CDC.

The thresholds for each COVID-19 Community Level were selected after a series of analyses examining the performance of different thresholds and combinations of thresholds to predict serious health outcomes. They were then validated through discussion with and inputs from local and state health officials and experts from hospital and healthcare systems. These thresholds are designed to signal the need for additional precautions in time for them to make a difference and allow communities to scale back those precautions when the Community Level is low. Our analyses showed that the COVID-19 Community Levels provide a sizeable improvement over community transmission levels in identifying regions that will experience severe outcomes—including ICU admissions and deaths—in the weeks ahead. Additional details about the methods for setting and evaluating the COVID-19 Community Levels are available here.

Health officials and individuals can use the COVID-19 Community Levels to inform decisions about community prevention strategies and individual behaviors. Individuals should also make personal decisions based on whether they are at high risk for severe disease. Exploring ways to promote these prevention strategies and provide equitable access to vaccines and other resources in our communities will protect the health and safety of everyone.

Okay, then. This is supposed to be a "sizable improvement" in predicting regions with severe outcomes. Let's see if it in fact works out that way.