edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
[personal profile] edschweppe
Take any good news today with an extra-large grain of salt, as the Commonwealth has added the following notice to today's dashboard:
SPECIAL NOTE: The data report today (2/23) reflects lower numbers than usual, due to a systems issue that temporarily interrupted reporting from several hospital systems. The issue has been resolved and the missing data will be included in tomorrow’s dashboard.
And do we get any good news today?

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 133 newly reported confirmed deaths (96 more than yesterday - up 259.5%) for a total of 22,578 deaths, 938 newly reported confirmed cases (3,180 less than yesterday - down 77.2%) for a total of 1,535,009 cases, and 57,159 newly reported molecular tests (128,251 less than yesterday - down 69.2%).

Note that yesterday's death data covers 4 days. Averaged over that period, there were 9.2 newly reported deaths per day and today's newly reported deaths are 124 more than yesterday's values - up 1,337.8%. Note that yesterday's case/test data covers 4 days. Averaged over that period, there were 1,029.5 newly reported cases per day and today's newly reported cases are 92 less than yesterday's values - down 8.9%. There were 46,352.5 newly reported molecular tests per day and today's newly reported tests are 10,806 more than yesterday's values - up 23.3%.
The seven day average positivity rate is 2.35%, compared to 2.44% yesterday. The state also reported 3 newly reported probable deaths (8 less than yesterday - down 72.7%) for a total of 715 and 98 newly reported probable cases (164 less than yesterday - down 62.6%) for a total of 131,613. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 136 new deaths for a total of 23,293 and 1,036 new cases for a total of 1,666,622. There were 537 COVID-19 patients in hospital (36 less than yesterday - down 6.3%), 105 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (8 less than yesterday - down 7.1%) and 67 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than yesterday - down 1.5%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 899.0 (128 less than yesterday - down 12.5%), 1,304% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 97.0% below the highest observed value of 23,182.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.35% (0 less than yesterday - down 3.6%), 662% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 92% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 675.0 (43 less than yesterday - down 6.0%), 694% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 83% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 30.0 (4 less than yesterday - down 11.8%), 2,900% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 83% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,820 non-ICU beds, of which 7,418 (84.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 432 (4.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 970 (11.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,253 ICU beds, of which 870 (69.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 105 (8.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 278 (22.2%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,768 non-ICU beds, of which 7,333 (83.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 460 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 975 (11.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,251 ICU beds, of which 863 (69.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 113 (9.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 275 (22.0%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,921.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 46.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,478.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.08%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,182.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 36.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 983.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.89% (or 3.11% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Day-over-day deaths are way up, which is certainly not good at all; hopefully, that's due more to weekend reporting delays than a hike in overall death rates. Cases are down day-over-day; more importantly, today's 938 new cases is noticeably less than yesterday's reported cases averaged over the four days covered thereby. In even better news, those 938 cases are the lowest single-day new case count since 883 cases were reported on August 3, 2021. Hospitalization counts are down again, as are all four seven-day averages. In particular, the seven-day cases average is under a thousand cases per day for the first time since last August, and is the lowest since, again, August 3.

Overall, this does seem like good news. On the other hand, there've been way too many times when one day of good info is followed by many days of not-so-good info, and (as noted above) there's some reason to think at least some of today's data is an underreport. And let's not forget that even a thousand new cases a day is still "high" community transmission by the CDC's standards.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 12 active and 2,767 cumulative cases as of February 22. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.

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Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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