Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

It would appear that last Monday's problems with the raw hospitalization data will be an ongoing thing. (The state wasn't providing the preceding Saturday or Sunday counts on Monday, which mucked up the calculations.) So I've tweaked the loader - again - to compensate.

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 83 newly reported confirmed deaths (18 more than Friday - up 27.7%) for a total of 21,419 deaths, 12,127 newly reported confirmed cases (4,946 more than Friday - up 68.9%) for a total of 1,485,623 cases, and 195,906 newly reported molecular tests (90,010 more than Friday - up 85.0%).
Note that today's case/test data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 4,042.3 newly reported cases per day (3,139 less than Friday - down 43.7%), and 65,302.0 newly reported molecular tests per day (40,594 less than Friday - down 38.3%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 7.43%, compared to 8.92% Friday. The state also reported 42 newly reported probable deaths (37 more than Friday - up 740.0%) for a total of 615 and 1,016 newly reported probable cases (48 more than Friday - up 5.0%) for a total of 125,971. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 125 new deaths for a total of 22,034 and 13,143 new cases for a total of 1,611,594. There were 2,202 COVID-19 patients in hospital (175 less than Friday - down 7.4%), 348 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (15 less than Friday - down 4.1%) and 219 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (14 less than Friday - down 6.0%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 4,803.0 (705 less than Friday - down 12.8%), 7,404% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 80.0% below the highest observed value of 23,137.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 7.43% (0 less than Friday - down 16.7%), 2,309% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 73% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,615.0 (113 less than Friday - down 4.1%), 2,976% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 33% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 50.0 (8 less than Friday - down 13.8%), 4,900% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 72% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,941 non-ICU beds, of which 6,344 (71.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,854 (20.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 743 (8.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,286 ICU beds, of which 735 (57.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 348 (27.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 203 (15.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 9,026 non-ICU beds, of which 6,348 (70.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 2,014 (22%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 664 (7.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,293 ICU beds, of which 724 (56.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 363 (28.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 206 (15.9%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 11,299.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 44.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,958.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 19.90%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,427.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 55.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,858.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.61% (or 5.29% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Deaths up day-over-day, which is not good at all. Raw numbers of cases are up, but we're covering three days of case data today; averaged out, there's a big drop in cases per day. Hospitalizations (once I got the loader working) are down as well, which is definitely encouraging. The seven-day averages are all down, which is very encouraging.

Overall, Massachusetts seems on a decent trajectory. On the other hand, the new BA.2 Omicron subvariant may get in the way of further declines:

While the Omicron surge appears to be waning in some regions of the United States, some experts are cautioning that progress against the coronavirus could be hindered by the arrival of a highly contagious new Omicron subvariant, BA.2.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former director of the US Food and Drug Administration, said Sunday that pandemic numbers were "coming down, and coming down quite sharply in parts of the Northeast, Florida, the mid-Atlantic," but said "you might see, as this new strain starts to pick up, you might see that we start to slow down in that decline."

Gottlieb said on CBS-TV's "Face the Nation" that "the decline will happen nonetheless" and he didn't expect "a huge wave of infection."

"We have so much Omicron immunity that's probably going to be a backstop against this really taking off," said Gottlieb, who is now a board member of Pfizer.

Thomas Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, also said in The New York Times this weekend that the arrival of BA. 2 "may mean higher peak infections in places that have yet to peak, and a slowdown in the downward trends in places that have already experienced peak Omicron."

BA.2, which is a cousin of BA.1, the original version of Omicron, has been found in more than 50 countries, including the United States, where, according to one expert's estimate last week, it already accounts for 8 percent of cases.

It is now predominant in Denmark - and researchers there have been studying it. In a preprint study released Sunday, researchers said they had found that "BA.2 is inherently substantially more transmissible than BA.1, and that it also possesses immune-evasive properties that further reduce the protective effect of vaccination against infection."

Previous preliminary research from Denmark has suggested there is no difference in the risk of hospitalization for BA.2 compared with the original Omicron variant, which causes less severe disease than the Delta variant it replaced in December.

Yay. </sarcasm>

In definitely good news, though, the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine (the one I got) has now been given full approval by the Food and Drug Administration:

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. health regulators on Monday granted full approval to Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, a shot that's already been given to tens of millions of Americans since its emergency authorization over a year ago.

The action by the Food and Drug Administration means the agency has completed the same rigorous, time-consuming review of Moderna's shot as dozens of other long-established vaccines.

The decision was bolstered by real-world evidence from the more than 200 million doses administered in the U.S. since the FDA cleared the shot in December 2020. The FDA granted full approval of Pfizer's vaccine last August.

[ ... ]

The FDA reviewed months of additional follow-up data submitted by Moderna to confirm the vaccine's effectiveness against COVID-19. The FDA also analyzed and kept watch for serious side effects that have proved to be very rare. The vaccine includes a warning about a rare type of heart inflammation that mostly occurs in young men following the second dose. Most cases are mild and resolve quickly.

Additionally, FDA reviewed the company's manufacturing process and facilities.

"The public can be assured that this vaccine was approved in keeping with the FDA's rigorous scientific standards," said Dr. Peter Marks, FDA's top vaccine regulator, in a statement.

With full approval, Moderna will now market the vaccine under the brand name, Spikevax. It is the first FDA-approved product for the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company.

In the U.S., Moderna is used only by adults, for initial vaccination and as a half-dose booster. The company said last fall that FDA had delayed deciding whether to clear the shots for 12- to 17-year-olds as it examined the heart inflammation risk.

Johnson & Johnson has not yet applied for full approval of its COVID-19 vaccine.

Also Monday, Novavax Inc. formally requested FDA authorization of a different type of COVID-19 vaccine, in hopes of becoming the fourth U.S. option.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 59 active and 2,657 cumulative cases as of January 30. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.